Pogacar, Vingegaard and the eternal duel - 2025 Tour de France preview

It’s a duopoly of the kind never seen before at the Tour, both in its frequency and its balance. In their four meetings thus far, Vingegaard and Pogačar have won two Tours apiece. By contrast, Jan Ullrich ‘only’ finished second to Lance Armstrong three times, and he never beat the American. Raymond Poulidor never beat Jacques Anquetil. Miguel Induráin had five different runners-up in five years. 

Vingegaard emerged just as Pogačar was threatening to dominate the 2020s without peer. When Primoz Roglič crashed out early in the 2021 Tour, Pogačar all but sealed his second straight win by channelling Merckx and Mourenx on the Col de Romme. But in the latter part of the Tour, Pogačar was unable to shake the Danish newcomer, who even dropped him on Mont Ventoux. 

We didn’t realise it at the time, but the duel had begun. A year later, Vingegaard vanquished Pogačar’s previous air of impregnability with an onslaught on the Col du Granon, and he repelled his every attack thereafter. In 2023, the pair exchanged blows in the first two weeks before Vingegeaard crushed his rival in the third. 

When Pogačar’s radio crackled into life with his forlorn admission of “I’m gone, I’m dead” on the Col de la Loze, their rivalry seemed to have settled into a fixed pattern. For eleven months of the year, Pogačar was cycling’s all-round genius, the GOAT in waiting. But in the white heat of the month of July, Vingegaard outshone him. 

If Pogačar’s seemingly effortless brilliance made him cycling’s Roger Federer, elegant on all terrains, then Vingegaard was its Rafal Nadal and – crucially – the high mountains and high temperatures of the Tour were his Roland-Garros. 

That theory was severely tested last summer, however, when a stratospheric Pogačar ran up the score on Vingegaard in the final week. Still, there was mitigation. Vingegaard had suffered serious injury in his Itzulia Basque Country fall in April, and it was a miracle that he was at the Tour at all. He reached Nice having surrendered his Tour title but without losing that much of his aura as the Tour specialist of the 2020s. One could still wonder what a fully fit Vingegaard might have achieved even against Pogačar’s outrageous 2024 vintage.

The mood music has changed dramatically since the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier this month. Pogačar’s defeat in the midweek time trial suggested the Slovenian was not unimpeachable, but he quickly dispelled any doubts at Combloux two days later. By riding Vingegaard off his wheel with a seated acceleration, Pogačar was atoning for his decisive defeat at Combloux on the 2023 Tour but also laying down a weighty marker for the Tour to come next month. 

Pogačar’s advantage of a minute that day won’t count towards the Tour, of course, but it will have left a hefty impression on Vingegaard’s psyche ahead of the main event. Although Vingegaard limited his damage the next day at Valmeinier 1800 to a handful of seconds, he still endured the indignity of being burnt off Pogačar’s wheel in a matter of metres for the second successive day. This isn't the summer of 2023, it seems.

Even as Vingegaard works towards the Tour at Visma | Lease a Bike’s final training camp in Tignes this week, he will know the lie of the land. The Tour remains a duopoly in 2025, but there is only one favourite – and it’s not him.

The most compelling argument for Pogačar’s fourth Tour victory is simple. He is the best cyclist in the world and, after producing one of the most remarkable seasons in cycling history in 2024, he seems to be operating on an even higher level in 2025. QED.

When the world champion spent the spring racing on cobbles and hills and adding to his Classics palmarès – Strade Bianche, the Tour of Flanders, Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège were all annexed – one wondered if those exertions would catch up with him in the summer. 

Received wisdom, after all, says a Tour contender needs blocks of stage races to build for July. Before the Dauphiné, meanwhile, Pogačar confessed that winning the Tour again was more of a duty than a dream. “Unfortunately, I’m stuck with the Tour every year,” he said.

Unfortunately for Vingegaard and everybody else, they’re stuck with a supersonic vintage of Pogačar this July. His crushing victory at the Dauphiné allayed any doubts about his readiness after a Spring on the cobbles. His UAE Team Emirates-XRG squad, meanwhile, looks more robust than ever, with Tour de Suisse winner João Almeida a podium contender in his own right.

The opening week of the Tour, meanwhile, seems to play to Pogačar’s strengths, questions over his time trialling notwithstanding. One can easily imagine Pogačar looking to entertain himself at places like Mûr-de-Bretagne and building up an advantage even before the high mountains loom into view.

Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike, meanwhile, will likely look to withstand any early offensive and hope the Dane’s powers of endurance – so crucial in his Tour wins – can come to the fore when the race reaches Mont Ventoux and the Col de la Loze in the final week. Vingegaard will convince himself he has home court advantage on that kind of terrain, but he will fear, too, that the 2025 vintage of Pogačar is a very different beast from the one he slayed in 2022 and 2023.

If Pogačar avoids hubris and overreach, it’s hard to picture him falling short here. But all sorts of obstacles can tumble into a man’s path across three weeks in July. It’s never a foregone conclusion.

No duel takes place in a vacuum, of course, not even one as recurring as this one. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) enjoyed a fine Tour debut a year ago, and while he was well off the pace of both Pogačar and Vingegaard at the Dauphiné, June’s truth is rarely the same as July’s.

Unlike the Big Two, Evenepoel tends to build slowly and methodically towards a Grand Tour, paring himself down to his ideal weight just in time. Expect him to be significantly better at the Tour, and the Caen time trial gives him a clear chance to take yellow in the first week. It’s hard to imagine he can then withstand Pogačar and Vingegaard, but he is the clear favourite for third and the man best placed to pounce should either of the Old Firm falter.

Primoz Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) has flown under the radar since abandoning the Giro d’Italia, but the Slovenian is still here and is due some luck at the Tour after three abandons. His Vuelta a España victory last year underlined his reliability over three weeks when he stays upright, but there is a sense that Pogačar and Vingegaard have moved the game to a place Roglič simply cannot reach. Still, he will be backed by a strong Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe unit, including the season’s break-out stage racing talent Florian Lipowitz. Like Evenepoel, the aim will be to stay in the hunt for as long as possible.

The aforementioned Almeida has podium potential if team duties allow, while there is ample competition for top five finishes from riders like Ben O’Connor (Jayco-Alula), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos).

And, as ever, the Tour will be a race of multiple stories beyond the GC battle. The punchy opening week gives an on-form Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) the chance to leave a real mark on the race. Tim Merlier (Soudal-QuickStep), Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) will clash in the sprints.

The forty years of hurt will extend into a fifth decade without a French overall winner, but there might be moments of joy for home fans all the same, with a seemingly rejuvenated Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor) joined in the peloton by youngsters Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious) and Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-Samsic).

Each day will bring a fresh adventure, from the Lille Grand Départ to the addition of the Montmartre climb on the final day in Paris. Polemics will sprout up in the most unexpected places. Crashes, punctures and perhaps even UCI yellow cards will bring sudden changes to the dynamic. 

But the big picture of this Tour is still clear. Like seemingly every other race on the calendar, it’s Pogačar’s to lose.