Milan now in pole position to beat Pogacar to green – Tour de France analysis

A day is a long time on the Tour de France. When Lidl-Trek squandered control the race ahead of the intermediate sprint on stage 16, it looked as if Jonathan Milan had surrendered the initiative in the fight for the green jersey to Tadej Pogačar.

The Italian failed to pick up a single point there, but he caught a break later in the afternoon precisely because Pogačar was unable to catch the break on the slopes of Mont Ventoux. Pogačar had to settle for fifth there, missing out on the full tally of 30 points for the stage winner, and so Milan kept the green jersey on Tuesday evening, albeit with just a nine-point buffer over the Slovenian.

Stage 17 was almost certainly the final opportunity for Milan to claim a stage victory on this Tour, but the arithmetic of this competition meant that winning in Valence was only a part of the green jersey equation. In order to give himself some breathing room before the Alps, Milan needed to weigh with a decent haul of points at the intermediate sprint too.

Lidl-Trek were stronger and savvier on Wednesday than they had been 24 hours earlier. After allowing a four-man move up the road early on, they quickly blocked the road to prevent anyone else joining them. That left fifth place and its 11 points up for grabs at the intermediate sprint – low-hanging fruit for Milan given that no other sprinter has any real reason to fight for points. Pogačar, for his part, resisted any lingering temptation to get in the mix, and Milan’s lead was up to 22 points.

That still left the bunch sprint in Valence, and the heavy rain that fell in the finale was a reminder of the precariousness of Milan’s quest. The inevitable crash took place just outside the flamme rouge, but Milan was among the baker’s dozen of riders ahead of it. He duly won the sprint to claim stage honours and add another 50 points to his buffer on Pogačar, who was never going to scrap for points on a finale like this.

It was, by any metric, a fine day’s work for Milan, who suddenly has a 72-point lead ahead of Pogačar in the points classification standings. The outlook is altogether rosier for the Italian than it was at the foot of Mont Ventoux on Tuesday. 

Had Milan not been caught behind the split on the opening stage in Lille, the points classification might already have been put to bed. And had Christian Prudhomme not added the climb of Montmartre to the grand finale in Paris, Milan would have the safety net of a Champs-Élysées sprint.

But even so, Milan’s advantage – and the configuration of the intermediate sprints on the next two stages – puts him firmly in pole position to claim the green jersey in Paris, even if Pogačar does Pogačar things over the remainder of the Tour and picks up two or three more stage wins.

Pogačar is the obvious favourite for stage victory at both the Col de la Loze and La Plagne, but much will depend on his UAE Team Emirates-XRG guard’s willingness to chase down the break, not to mention Jonas Vingegaard’s relative strength on the final climbs. And even if Pogačar overcomes those obstacles, the prize for stage victory on each summit finish is ‘only; 20 points.

Saturday’s hilly run to Pontarlier doesn’t look like a day for the GC men – though in the Pogačar-Vingegaard era, who can say for sure? – and so the 30 points for the stage winner seem set to fall to the break.

The final day in Paris, on the other hand, looks weighted more to Pogačar than to Milan. Given the world champion’s love of spectacle, it’s difficult to imagine him resisting the temptation to fling himself onto the offensive at Montmartre in a bid to seal his (possible) fourth overall victory with a stage win in yellow.

But if Pogačar were to win at the Col de la Loze, La Plagne and on the Champs-Élysees, that would still yield ‘only’ 90 points. In other words, if Milan can win an intermediate sprint between here and Paris, his only real opponent for the green jersey will be the time limit in the Alps.

The good news for Milan is that the intermediate sprints arrive before any classified climb on each of the two mammoth days in the Alps, although it might a big ask to pick up maximum points on Thursday.

The intermediate sprint in Rioupéroux comes after only 23km, but the road is already beginning to rise by then on the approach to the Col du Glandon. Competition for the early break will be fierce and Lidl-Trek will be hard pressed to control affairs.

On stage 19, the intermediate sprint in Ugine comes just 8km from the start, which looks rather more amenable, though once again, the road will already be climbing by the time the intermediate sprint comes into view.

But if the intermediate sprint on stage 20 looks set to be hoovered up by the break, Milan has another, more obvious chance on Sunday evening, with the intermediate sprint on the Champs-Élysées. 

“It’s not over yet, there are still some tough days ahead with difficult climbs,” Milan insisted on Wednesday. “We’ll keep fighting for the intermediate sprints and on the last day, we’ll see how it goes. I’ve made up some ground today in the points classification, so I’ll keep trying to get as many points as possible.”

In truth, even faced with a rampant Pogačar, the points classification now looks like Milan’s to lose. Pogačar, for his part, is also leading the king of the mountains classification, but on Wednesday evening he shrugged off the idea that he had any designs on winning all three major classifications in Paris. “The objective is to stay in yellow, nothing more,” he said.

Milan isn’t there just yet, but even with the Alps and Montmartre obscuring the view, he can already see the Champs-Élysées.