Tour de France stage 1 preview - A sprint after a nervous, windy stage?

For the first time since 2021, the Grand Depart begins on home soil and for the first time since 2020 the sprinters get the chance to take the yellow jersey. The opening stage starts and finishes in the city of Lille, offering an interesting mix of terrain without being overly selective, perfect for a first showdown between the top sprinters. 22°C and a dry day but the wind will add some extra spice to this stage.

Start: 13:40 (CET) 
Estimated finish: 17:45 (CET)

Read also our stage 2 preview

For this stage, it's worth zooming in on three key elements:

• The three hills along the route
• The potential for crosswinds
• The technical, twisty final kilometres in Lille

A short, punchy ascent that gained recognition during the new one-day race Classique Dunkerque, won by Pascal Ackermann. The name of the climb comes from the largest military cemetery in France, located at the summit.

Côte de Notre-Dame-de-Lorette (1 km at 8.2%)
4th category - 143.9 km to the finish

Between 116.5 and 106.5 km, there’s an exposed section with a crosswind. The average wind speed at that point will be around 20–23 km/h and gusts to 40 km/h. The tension in the first stage in the Tour is high, no one wants to be caught off guard. The nervousness will increase when they reach this 10km sector, and teams will definitely want to be at the front. However, the chances of real echelons forming and staying away are not very high, as many sheltered roads follow after this section. 

Before the riders head toward Cassel, there’s an intermediate sprint with 97.4 km to go. It’s straightforward, with no notable features, just flat.

The famous Mont Cassel, featuring 1.4 km of cobbles. The start of the passage through the Collines des Flandres, featuring around 40 kilometers of rolling and hilly terrain.

Mont Cassel (1.8 km at 3.8%) 
4th category - 78.9 km to the finish

After the Mont Cassel the peloton reaches the turning point and heads east again, with the wind mainly at its back. They will also tackle the Mont des Cats, leading to the final categorized climb of the day: Mont Noir, which was also the final climb the last time the Tour finished in Lille in 2014. 

Mont Noir (1.3 km at 5.8%)
4th category - 45.1 km to the finish

From the summit, the route continues southeast over mostly pancake-flat roads. The Tour stays entirely in France, but the route nearly touches the Belgian border a few times.

In the final hour of the race, the threat of echelons becomes very real with a cross/tailwind. While the section between 36 and 33 km is more of an appetizer it becomes very serious when they exit Armentières. The stretch between 23.5 km and 13 km is wide open and perfectly exposed to the wind. With the most exposed section coming between 20 km and 13 km. At the time of writing, we're looking at wind speeds of 22–23 km/h with gusts up to 40–45 km/h. This deep into the finale, it can only mean one thing: this will be a crucial moment in the race.

The final kilometers in Lille are not straightforward, as the last 4 kilometers feature five relatively wide corners. It’s not overly technical, so I wouldn’t call this a dangerous finish. There’s a chance we won’t see the full peloton riding into the center of Lille, which certainly wouldn’t be a bad thing in terms of sprint safety.

The first crucial point in the final is the left turn located 3.9 km from the finish, preceded by two speed bumps, many teams will be keen to position themselves on the front rows at this moment.

After this turn, the road rises slightly due to two consecutive bridges.

This is the 90° turn leading into the final 2 kilometers. From there, there is only one more turn left.

The final turn comes with 1.4km to go, setting up a long, straight run-in to the finish.

The Boulevard Vauban is listed as 7 meters wide in the roadbook. The perfectly straight road and the trees remind me of the Avenue de Grammont (Paris-Tours).

Trek and Alpecin seem to have the best sprint trains in this Tour. If one of them nails the lead-out perfectly, it will also reduce the risk of crashes. But a long final straight is tricky. Unlike a twisty finale, the risk of a washing machine effect is naturally higher here. It doesn't have to be fatal if you don't have the best lead-out train. You can still be brought into position in the last kilometer from a weaker spot, but then you especially need one strong rider in front of you, like Van Lerberghe for Merlier. It will be a tailwind sprint, starting your sprint early doesn’t have to be a disadvantage.

The climbs come too far from the finish to truly shape the outcome of this stage, but the wind will play a role in this stage, especially that section between 23.5 km and 13 km. I think the wind is strong enough to cause splits there and since we’re so close to the finish, the pace won’t slow down anymore. One thing’s for sure: the nervousness will be high. Let’s just hope it doesn’t result in any DNFs.

The final is tailor-made for the sprinters as it’s completely flat. Expect the fast men to battle it out for the first yellow jersey of the Tour.

The last time we had a stage finish in Lille was in 2014. In stage 4, Kittel claimed his third stage win of that Tour, ahead of Kristoff and Demare. Nearly three weeks later, he would add a fourth on the Champs-Élysées. Let’s see if one sprinter is able to dominate this year’s sprints like Kittel did.