Tour de France stage 4 preview - Punch party part two: Pogacar going for number 100?

The variety in this first week is very enjoyable. This time, it's the puncheurs and GC contenders who are again in the spotlight. A very challenging hilly stage that pays tribute to two French Tour de France winners: Jean Robic, and of course Jacques Anquetil, who lived in the finish town of Rouen. We’re definitely going to see a fierce battle between the big guns.

Start: 13:15 (CET)
Estimated finish: 17:32 (CET)
Elevation gain: 1924m

Follow stage 4 from begin to end with our live report

From Amiens, the peloton heads through the roads of the Pays de Bray, a transition zone from the flatlands of Picardy to the hilly terrain of Normandy. The area is characterised by its rolling roads through green meadows. The second half of the race becomes more demanding once they reach the northern bank of the Seine. This is where the road to the final begins.

The first of the five categorised climbs marks the start of the pre-final, 50 km from the finish. The Côte Jacques Anquetil, a tribute to the stylish Monsieur Chrono. It’s an easy one, a perfect warm-up.

Côte Jacques Anquetil (3.6km - 3.5%)
4th category - 46.1 km to the finish

One glance at the map tells the story of the final 30 kilometres: a relentless series of climbs and descents, twisting roads, and barely a moment to settle.

This climb is less than 30 kilometers from the finish. Its steepest section features two hairpin bends and stretches 500 meters at a gradient of 11.3%.

Côte de Belbeuf (1.3km - 9.4%)
3rd category - 27.5 km to the finish

The winding around the city of Rouen has truly begun. Next up is the climb to Bonsecours, which follows a wide road. At the top, there’s a headstone honoring Jean Robic, the 1947 Tour de France winner.

Côte de Bonsecours (1km - 7.4%)
4th category - 19.8 km to the finish

The penultimate climb once again follows a wide road. The gradients are gentlier but fatigue is really starting to build in the legs, and everyone will want to be near the front with the descent to the most important climb of the day.

Côte de la Grand’Mare (1.9km - 5.3%)
4th category - 11.9 km to the finish

In the descent towards the final climb, moving up through the peloton is very difficult, but there's also a 1 km straight section followed by an uphill approach to the actual ramp. The pace will be incredibly high.

This climb is rightly not called a côte but a “rampe”. The photos below give you a clear idea of how brutal it is. 

Rampe Saint-Hilaire (900m - 10.9%)
3rd category - 5.0 km to the finish

The approach to the Saint-Hilaire climb is 700 meters long at a 4.5% gradient. If you include this section, the climb measures 1.6 kilometres at 8.0%.

The actual climb begins when they turn onto Avenue Georges Métayer. This road climbs at around 9.5%

Halfway up the climb, there's a chicane leading onto Rue Francis Yard, where the real spectacle begins. A spectacle for the spectators, but for the riders, it will be suffering for 350m at 14% with a maximum gradient of 18%.

Towards the end of the climb, the gradient ramps up to around 17–18%.

The comparison below shows both climbs, including the lower slopes at the approach. The Mur is slightly tougher due to the steep chicane there, but otherwise they are fairly comparable.

At the top, there’s a plateau of about 1,25 kilometers, watch out for a well-timed attack coming from behind if the favorites couldn’t drop each other. 

It’s a twisty run-in to the final kilometre, though the descent itself isn’t overly technical.

The final kilometer also rises again: from 750m to 300m, the road climbs at a gradient of 5.5% with a maximum gradient of 7.7%. The last 250 meters are flat or even slightly downhill.

The road ramps up noticeably here for 450 meters

The last turn, followed by a wide boulevard all the way to the finish line.

It will be less windy than in recent days, but with temperatures around 18 to 19°C, it’s still relatively cool for this time of year. There’s a headwind in the final, though the roads are sheltered here, so it shouldn’t have much of an impact. Clouds will clear during the race, making way for sunshine.

This is practically a GC stage, where the puncheurs will have to hope for mercy from Pogacar and co. These are pure Ardennes-style climbs, especially the final climb. With such a brutal final climb awaiting, I expect the riders to hold their fire until the rampe Saint-Hilaire, when the real battle will begin, consequently, time gaps are inevitable. We’ll have to see what the pace will be in the final and which puncheurs can hold on on that rampe de Saint-Hilaire. 

If this was a World Championship or Monument, Pogacar was undoubtedly the overwhelming favorite. If UAE would set up a train with Wellens-Narvaez-Almeida to launch Pogacar, I think he’s able to drop everyone on the steep slopes of the rampe Saint-Hilaire. The most likely rider to follow in that case is Vingegaard, followed by Evenepoel and Van der Poel.

But in a Grand Tour, there’s always some uncertainty, as there are multiple interests at play and the Tour is still long. One of the reasons Pogacar might just follow the moves is that he doesn’t want to start the ITT in the yellow jersey or the polka dot jersey. That could be Van der Poel’s saving grace. Mathieu is looking very strong but he does depend on what UAE and Visma decide to do.If the pace in the first part of the Saint-Hilaire isn’t high enough, it won't be easy to drop Van der Poel.And even if he gets dropped, there’s a chance he comes back in the descent. Also important to mention: If Pogacar wins and MVDP finishes 2nd in the same time, MVDP holds the lead because of the sum of the stage results.

On the other hand, it’s not in Pogacar’s nature to ride so defensively, and holding back on that final climb or in the sprint just to avoid wearing the polka-dot or yellow jersey in the time trial seems a bit far-fetched.

If the favorites can’t drop each other, it opens up opportunities for the riders just behind them. They can take advantage in the stretch between the summit and the final kilometer: Vauquelin, Healy, Onley, Grégoire, Lipowitz, Alaphilippe, … This scenario is less likely but can happen if the domestiques are no longer around.

I don’t really believe in an early breakaway win, the pace in the finale will normally be very high, that’s just how it goes. Pogačar, Van der Poel, or an outsider? I’m leaning slightly towards Pogačar for tomorrow. But my feeling might be wrong.

It has already been 13 years since Rouen last hosted a Tour de France stage finish. Greipel won a bunch sprint ahead of Petacchi and Veelers. As you can imagine, this was a completely different type of stage.