Tour de France stage 6 preview - A first chance for the breakaway or Pogacar hungry for more?

After the time trial, we're heading back into the hills. An explosive finish awaits in Vire Normandie, but first, no less than 3,446 metres of climbing must be conquered in 201.5km, the toughest stage of this week. Will we see someone from the early breakaway take the win? Or are we in for another puncher’s showdown among the big names?

Start: 12:45 (CET) 
Estimated finish: 17:26 (CET)
Elevation gain: 3446m

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The stage takes the riders through La Suisse Normande, and as the name suggests, there's not a single flat road in this region. After 22.2 km, there’s already an intermediate sprint. That might delay the breakaway until then. In any case, it’s Milan’s only job at this stage, those points will be more than welcome. It’s a false flat sprint after a punchy climb, and Van der Poel might get involved too, due to the circumstances (Milan missing the first sprint and Philipsen abandoning), he will probably take more interest in this classification.

The road to the final includes five third-category climbs. Although these are situated quite far from the finish, they contribute significantly to the difficulty of the stage. I'll show the profiles, they’ll give a good sense of how tough this stage really is.

Côte du Mont Pinçon (5.8km - 3.7%)
3rd category - 166.6 km to the finish

Côte de la Rançonnière (2.7km - 7.5%)
3rd category - 145.6 km to the finish

Côte de Mortain Cote 314 (1.5km - 9.9%)
3rd category - 63.9 km to the finish

Côte de Juvigny-de-Tertre (2.2km - 7.1%)
3rd category - 47.3 km to the finish

Côte de Saint-Michel-de-Montjoie (3.8km - 4.6%)
3rd category - 27.4 km to the finish

The house on the left side is also impressed by this stage. This is the summit of the last third-category climb, from here the route descends gently for 20 kilometres before reaching the final 13 kilometres.

With 13 km to go, the riders enter Vire Normandie, where they face a short uncategorized climb of 1.1 km at 4.0%. After that, they loop around the northwest of the town, taking on the Côte de Vaudry before finishing on the Avenue d'Atlacomulco.

The Côte de Vaudry is a relatively straightforward climb with the summit located 4 kilometres from the finish. The toughest part comes right at the start, with gradients reaching up to 11%. It can serve as a launchpad, but keep in mind that the steep final kilometer still awaits!

After the summit, a very fast descent on a wide road follows, bringing the riders into the final kilometre in no time.

There is one more corner to come, the roundabout 2 km from the finish, so the finale is less technical than the recent punchy stages.

The final climb starts just under the flamme rouge: 1km at 8.0% but the final 600m rises at 10.4%. By far the toughest final kilometer of all the punchy stages.

With 300 meters to go, there's a sharp left-hand turn, and from there the gradient ramps up to 12%. It goes without saying that in a peloton sprint, it's crucial to be well-positioned going into the final corner.

A long, sweeping bend leading into the finish line.

As you can see, it levels out in the final meters.

There will be little wind tomorrow, although it will pick up slightly as the stage progresses. For most of the day, the riders will have a tailwind. From 30 km to 9 km to go, it turns into a headwind. The penultimate climb is with a tailwind, and the finish features a crosswind. A sunny day with temperatures around 26°C.

This is the toughest of all the punchy stages, although the final 25km are easier than in stage 2 and 4. It features the kind of elevation you'd expect from a transitional stage but we're still in the first week. 

The question is what Alpecin and UAE are planning to do. They’ll likely be the only teams controlling this stage, as only Van der Poel and Pogacar can realistically win from the peloton, the final kilometer is too demanding for a sneaky winner in my opinion. If I have to pick a winner from the peloton, it’s definitely Pogacar. But does UAE want to chase and keep the yellow jersey? Which other teams are so sadistic as to burn out their domestiques on this tough course just to fight for a place in the top 10?

That’s why I’m leaning a bit to the breakaway scenario. I think the route offers opportunities for it. There are now significant time gaps, and I expect more riders are interested in the early break than in previous days. But as always, it all depends on how the stage opens and what the big teams decide to do. I don’t have access to their plans, of course, but if I were a breakaway rider, I’d be on high alert right from the start.

Kévin Vauquelin, born in the start town of Bayeux, has a chance to claim the yellow jersey on home soil. He is currently third in the general classification, 59 seconds behind. Of course, that is only possible by getting into the breakaway. A double win would send Normandy into a delirium. Mathieu Van der Poel (1’28”) also has two options. In a sprint against Pogacar, it won’t be easy for him to beat the Slovenian, so he might try to join the breakaway to go for the stage win and/or possibly to reclaim the yellow jersey for a few days.

Other riders who could still have their eyes on the yellow jersey are Onley (2'41"), Paret-Peintre (3'22"), Cras (4'54"), and Jegat (5'03"). Although the gap is significant, I’m keeping the option open. The chance is small, but I like to mention them nonetheless.

There are quite a few riders who have only a limited number of opportunities to go for a stage win, and they really need to seize chances like this. After all, two bunch sprints are coming up in the weekend. I’m mainly thinking of riders like Healy, Powless, Schmid, and Alaphilippe. And last but not least, nine-time stage winner Van Aert, who took it easy in the time trial. I have a feeling that Visma needs a bit of recovery, and that Van Aert will go for his chance tomorrow.

In this stage, a maximum of 11 points is up for grabs for the polka dot jersey, and there will definitely be a battle for them. Pogacar is leading this classification with 5 points.

It’s been 28 years since the Tour de France last finished in Vire. Back then, the finish was much easier. Mario Cipollini, wearing the yellow jersey, won stage 3 ahead of Erik Zabel and Jeroen Blijlevens.