Tour de France stage 7 preview - Will Pogacar strip Van der Poel of yellow again on "his" Mûr-de-Bretagne?

A scorching day in Brittany, with the stage set to finish atop the iconic Mûr-de-Bretagne after 2.418 meters of elevation. The organizers never miss a chance to include this iconic climb. Are we set for a GC showdown just before the upcoming calm of the weekend?

Start: 12:25 (CET)
Estimated finish: 16:51 (CET)
Elevation gain: 2418m

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Unlike today, the first 50km are gentler and more manageable, making it easier to keep the race under control, a key factor in how the stage will play out.

There are no categorized climbs along the route to the final circuit, but as you well know, the word 'flat' doesn’t exist in Breton. It’s a day of relentless ups and downs on the road to the westernmost point of this year’s Tour de France.

The intermediate sprint is on a 1.7 km climb at an average gradient of 4.6%. With 57.9km to go, this will be the finish of Milan’s and Girmay’s stage.

The finale is a copy-paste of 2021, featuring:

• Côte du Village de Mûr-de-Bretagne (1.6km at 4.1%)
• Mûr-de-Bretagne - Guerlédan (1st time) (2.0km at 6.4%)
• Uncategorized climb to Saint-Mayeux (1.2km at 6.2%)
• Mûr-de-Bretagne - Guerlédan (finish) (2.0km at 6.4%)

1.6km at 4.1%

At 20 km from the finish, there's the climb to the actual village of Mûr-de-Bretagne, a prelude for the real 'Mûr' to come.

After that climb, the riders enter the circuit, tackling the Mûr-de-Bretagne for the first time and crossing the finish line with 15.2 km to go.

Immediately after that comes the uncategorized climb to Saint-Mayeux, though it really should be classified as a Category 4 climb.

That climb crests with 12.2km to go. It’s a fast and direct run-in to the foot of the second and final ascent of the Mûr-de-Bretagne. Unlike the earlier punchy stages, the run-in isn’t technical, leaving plenty of room to move up through the bunch.

Mûr de Bretagne Guerlédan (2.0km at 6.4%)

The Mûr-de-Bretagne is known for its steep first kilometer, which you can see looming from afar. The steepest section is 600 meters at 11.5%. After that, the climb levels out toward the finish, with the final 400 meters being a false flat.

Mostly a tailwind in this stage, and just like in previous days, the wind picks up in the afternoon. I don’t see any echelon opportunities, the roads and the slightly too weak wind make it unlikely. 

Once again, it’s a sun-drenched day with temperatures heading towards 30 degrees. That’s hot for Bretagne!

On the Mûr de Bretagne, and on the more exposed, flattening section that follows, there will be a cross/headwind.

It's the fifth time we’re finishing here, in the previous four, we saw one sprint and three late attacks. That’s typical for a climb that starts steep and then levels off, making it ideal for a late move when the top GC riders are looking at each other. An attack launched before the Mûr is usually doomed to fail. That’s how wall finishes tend to unfold.

Stage 6 has taken a serious toll, and we'll have to wait and see which teams show the intent to control the early part of the stage. This stage has never gone to the break before, which isn't surprising given the profile and the placement of this stage in the Tour. If a strong break does get away, they’ll certainly have a chance, but I doubt that will happen, especially knowing there are two flat stages coming up over the weekend.

Van der Poel has the yellow jersey, but I think Alpecin is realistic enough to know that winning on the Mûr-de-Bretagne will be difficult, especially after how much he suffered the day before. They’ll take some responsibility, of course, but other teams will be needed to help control the opening of the stage and do the chasing. It’s a more controllable stage than stage 6, so I expect this one will be well managed, leading to a showdown between the big names on the Mûr.

Unlike a finish like the one in Vire, a victory for Pogacar isn't set in stone here, as the final kilometer isn’t that tough. Of course, he’s the clear favourite, there’s no doubt about that, but as mentioned above, a late attack could also have a chance. For that scenario, I’m thinking of names like Vauquelin, Onley, Jorgenson or Grégoire. Or, if he gets the chance: Almeida!

My main scenario is a very reduced sprint between the big guns. Given the strength of UAE, I think they will go very hard on the steep slopes and set Pogacar up perfectly, with Almeida leading him toward a second stage win in this Tour, and in doing so, reclaiming the yellow jersey. He probably doesn’t mind that too much.

Four years ago, Van der Poel took an emotional victory, paying tribute to his late grandfather Poulidor. He launched his attack 770 meters from the line, right after shutting down a move from Colbrelli. Behind him, Pogacar held off Roglic in a sprint for second place. Will he be recovered enough to fight for the stage win and defend his yellow jersey?