Tour de France stage 9 preview - Merlier vs Milan! Will the wind spice up the finale?

The fans blame the organizers for scheduling two flat stages over the weekend, and I can understand their frustration. But we have to make do with it, and maybe we’ll get an exciting finale, because the stage has echelon potential, but the question is whether the wind will be strong enough.

Start: 13:25 (CET)
Estimated arrival: 17:07 (CET)
Total length stage 9: 174.1km
Elevation gain: 1341m

Follow every kilometer of stage 9 with our live report

After just 24.2 kilometres, the intermediate sprint awaits, meaning Milan and Girmay will be in action early in the day.

It will still be warm and sunny, around 31°C, with possible showers only expected after 6 PM. The finale of this stage had a relatively high potential for echelons beforehand. I was secretly hoping the wind would pick up a bit more. Weather models are predicting speeds of 16 to 20 km/h with gusts to 30 km/h in the final 40 kilometres, enough to make teams nervous, but maybe not strong enough for real echelon formation. A pure westerly wind would also have been better than this west-southwesterly one.

I'll highlight the potential moments for echelons, just in case the wind out in the fields turns out to be stronger than forecasted.

Before this section, there’s a right-hand turn followed by a brief stretch of shelter provided by a forest. Once that ends, the riders head into an exposed open plain.

The road is interrupted by a forest, followed by a short stretch leading towards the village of Villedieu-sur-Indre. This is definitely a place where I'd want my team near the front.

This is that sharp turn, it’s quite narrow here as well. After that, there’s a short 1 km section through the houses before the riders head back into the open fields.

This is actually the most suitable section for echelons, with the cross-tailwind and the narrower road. From 20.2 km to the turn at 16.6 km, it’s a full tailwind.

Who on earth planted trees along the right side for 10 km? Sabotage!

That’s why the road is somewhat sheltered, although the wind still cuts through because the trees don’t completely block the crosswind. If there were a strong northeast wind here, the peloton would be split into 20 pieces.

Lots of 'ifs' and 'woulds'. I think the nervousness will be there, but we have to see if there are teams who really want to try it. It’s possible they’ll agree to ride wide across the road heading into the finale.

At 6 km from the finish, the peloton enters the city. The riders won’t face a technical finale but they still need to stay alert for a few narrow sections and corners. 

Between 4km and 3km from the finish, there are two roundabouts.

After that, only two more corners remain, the last one at 1.5 km from the finish line. 

It’s shaping up to be a high-speed sprint since, as you can see in the photo, the final stretch from 600m to 100m gently slopes downhill. 

The finish is located right next to the Stade Gaston Petit.

For this stage, I’m naming Merlier as the top favorite. I believe the fastest sprinter will take the win here. The long final straight gives him an advantage to move up, with or without Van Lerberghe. The high-speed sprint plays right into his strengths. But with Milan, he'll be up against a tough opponent again. There's something about the green jersey, it gives riders wings.

I do recommend that Soudal-Quick Step, unlike in stage 1, stays attentive and well-positioned near the front in the last 40km. Of course, there are doubts about whether anything will actually happen in the finale, since echelons require both strong wind and teams willing to make a move.The currently predicted wind speed is borderline. In the open fields, the wind is always a bit stronger so there are possibilities, but it’s not certain that we will actually see the peloton split. Even if the wind is strong enough, we still have to see if teams like Alpecin and Visma will try something. I expect them to be near the front regardless. Because this is a borderline case, I don’t expect most of the teams to take the initiative, but rather to stay attentive and well-positioned near the front.

Mark Cavendish’s name is forever etched into the history of Châteauroux. The now-retired British sprint legend claimed three Tour de France stage wins in the city. This has prompted the local authorities to rename the city “Cavendish City”.

The last time, Cavendish outsprinted Philipsen and it’s the same finish this year. Philipsen had been led out by Merlier. This time, Merlier returns with different ambitions. Can he claim his second stage win?