Preview World Championship Men Elite - Payback time for Pogacar?

The men's World Championship road race comes with the following key details:

Date: Sunday, September 28
Length: 267,5 km
Elevation gain: 5200 - 5500m*
Start and finish time: 09:45 - 16:45 CET

* Each app shows something different. I’m keeping it at a broad estimate between 5200 and 5500m, which is a lot.

The race consists of 9 local laps of 15.1km, followed by a larger lap over Côte de Péage, Mount Kigali and Mur de Kigali, before returning to the same local circuit for another six local laps.

Before I zoom in on the local circuit, I’ll take a closer look at the extension circuit.

It starts 120.4 km from the finish and covers 27.3 km. The Côte de Péage (1.9km at 6.1%), already familiar as the penultimate climb of the men’s elite time trial, serves here as a warm-up for what lies ahead.

The average gradient can be deceptive, but the profile says it all. This is a brutal climb, divided into three challenging sections: 1.4 km at 9.0%, followed by 900 m at 9.0% and finishing with 800 m at 13.5%. For many riders, their World Championship ends here.

The most famous climb in Africa, and I’m glad for the riders that they only have to tackle it once. Even though it’s short, the steep gradient and cobblestones make it a real leg breaker. The steepest section comes right at the start, with gradients reaching up to 18%. 

The pairing of Mount Kigali and the Mur de Kigali is particularly demanding, and while the finish is still a long way off, it’s certain to have an impact. The group may already be heavily reduced. And which daredevil will be bold enough to launch an attack here?

After the Mur de Kigali, the course heads mostly downhill back toward the local circuit, where six more laps of 15.08 km await. 

The local circuit is defined by its lack of flat roads. The first 8 km are mostly downhill, with a few short kickers along the way. Because the pace is high on these wide perfect roads, their difficulty is somewhat diminished. Still, they shouldn’t be underestimated. 

This is the profile of the most notable kicker in that first section.

But the real challenge comes in the second part. At 6.8 km from the finish/passage, the Côte de Kigali Golf begins, and yes, it starts right by the golf course! The paved climb is 730 meters long, steep at the start, and reaches gradients of up to 11%. 

The plateau after this climb can also serve as a launchpad for an attack, before the course quickly drops down to the foot of the now-famous Kimihurura. 

Unlike in the time trials, they now start the climb right after a U-turn at 2.3km from the line. From the TT images, it was clear that the cobbles are tricky. This is a climb where differences can be made, that much is obvious.

We’ve already seen a lot of the final kilometer on the coverage, that’s the advantage of this World Championship. The last 600 meters rise at an average of 5.3%, with a peak of 8%. 

While the women may face showers on Saturday afternoon, Sunday looks set to stay dry, with weather similar to the time trial: a gentle southern breeze and temperatures around 26–27°C. 

One of the questions to ask before the start: How much of a selection will the extension circuit create? If they go full gas on Mount Kigali, only a very select group will make it to the local laps. That said, I wouldn’t expect a big attack or solo move from that point. Due to the air quality, temperature and altitude, teams and riders may adopt a more defensive approach, even Pogačar. If you go too deep into the red here, you might not even finish the race.

On the local circuit itself, there are plenty of opportunities to attack. The key spot is the cobbled climb, but we’ll likely see some sneaky moves elsewhere as well. The most likely scenario is a race of attrition, the course is tough and fair. Only the strong and clever survive.

Pogačar: the top favourite
A course that suits him perfectly: extremely tough, with a few climbs that fit him very well. He has a decent team around him but unlike at UAE, he doesn’t have a team capable of pulling for long stretches in the final 100 km, but going for a “Zurich move” on this course would be a huge risk. 

Naturally, he enjoys that kind of racing. And he won’t mind if a few riders manage to stay with him. The last thing he wants is to get caught up in a tactical battle. The Kimihurura was the scene of a painful moment last Sunday, but this Sunday could be completely different. If he finds his very best legs, he’ll be difficult to beat. Still, nothing is ever a certainty in Kigali. 

Evenepoel: the main challenger
He delivered a hammer blow in the time trial, but that doesn’t change much about his chances in the road race. He is Pogačar’s most important rival, though I still rank him a step lower. He is the only other rider capable of arriving solo, except for Pogačar. With the time trial win, he’s lifted the pressure off his shoulders. He can race freely, and he will.

Healy, Ciccone, Pidcock and Del Toro: Best of the rest?
A demanding course plays to their advantage. Healy prepared at the Tour de Luxembourg, where he showed he was gradually ready for this World Championship, notably with a strong performance on the final stage. I think this is truly a Healy kind of course.

Ciccone and Pidcock did the Vuelta, the first one was hampered by a saddle sore, however, his strong ride in the penultimate stage from the breakaway makes me believe we need to consider him a podium threat. One downside: the cobbles are not favorable for his saddle issue. Pidcock has often struggled in the past with a dip in form after reaching a major goal, this time, the podium at the Vuelta. It’s hard to predict whether he’ll be in the mix for victory or fade relatively early. With Pidcock, either outcome is possible. But if he can carry over his Vuelta legs, he’s the strongest podium candidate behind Pogačar and Remco.

Del Toro has been performing at a very high level all season, winning race after race over the past two and a half months. The conditions and the course suit him, but he remains a very young rider, and if anything is to catch him out, it would be a brutal 267 km World Championship. No guarantees here, he could make the podium, but he could just as well slip outside the top 10.

Bernal and Carapaz: Born at high altitude in South America
It remains uncertain how the air quality, weather conditions and altitude will affect the riders after more than 250 kilometers. I could have placed these two guys in another category, but this World Championship is arguably the one that suits them best.

Carapaz was certainly strong in Luxembourg, and he’s expected to be on point in Kigali. He will likely choose to go on the offensive, just as we know him.

Bernal’s last top 15 finish in a one-day race was Strade Bianche 2021 but there’s a reason for that, he has hardly started any one-day races in recent years. He should aim high in a tough road race like this and he showed good form in the final week of the Vuelta with a stage win, a solid indicator heading into the Worlds.

Sivakov, Simmons, Skujins, Skjelmose: Stamina
These are cyclists who may not be the absolute best on a climb, but the distance doesn’t trouble them, and they have the stamina to deliver a top result here. Sivakov and Simmons made a strong impression in Canada, respectively 3rd in Quebec and Montreal. Skujins and Skjelmose formed the Trek duo that performed very well in Luxembourg. For Toms, it could be over his limit, depending on how the race unfolds. Skjelmose mentioned feeling something that made his lungs burn a bit. For both riders, it remains to be seen how they’ll handle these conditions.

Ayuso and Roglic: The top riders with question marks
They aren’t typical one-day specialists, but on paper they should still go far here. Can national coach Valverde instill the right mindset in Ayuso? Fighting for a bronze medal would be great. Or will he fade prematurely again, a scenario we’ve seen all too often this past month?

Roglič can play a key supporting role for team leader Pogačar in several ways. His form is a big question mark and his last strong one-day race was two years ago. Could he pull off something crazy in the winter of his career?

Arensman, Hindley and Vine: Can they make it in a one-day race?
A group of riders who aren’t typical one-day specialists.

• Arensman: 1 top 30 in 21 one-day races (15th)
• Hindley: 2 top 10s in 47 one-day races (6th)
• Vine: 1 top 20 in 20 one-day races (17th)

Terrible statistics. Who will deliver their best-ever one-day result? 

Hirschi, Alaphilippe, Morgado and Christen: Punchers likely to fall short
I think this course is a bit too demanding for these riders. Part of that also comes down to form, the fatigue in this race is likely to be too big. But you can still expect them to attack, especially if the race stays more or less together for a longer time.

An honorable mention goes to the following riders who could animate the race and if they ride smartly, a top-10 finish is possible: Storer, Mollema, Vermaerke, Madouas, Onley, Schmid and Frigo.