Supersonic Tadej Pogacar strikes ominous blow ahead of Tour de France - Dauphiné Analysis

Tadej Pogačar suffered a crushing disappointment the last time he came to Combloux and, much like Michael Jordan, he was always likely to take that slight personally. 

That stark defeat in the pivotal time trial on the 2023 Tour de France seemed to drive Pogačar’s desire to run up the score against Jonas Vingegaard in the final week of last year’s race, when he kept piling on the pain even when the yellow jersey was long since secure.

On Friday, when the Critérium du Dauphiné brought him back to Combloux, Pogačar was given a chance of a do-over against Vingegaard on the Côte de Domancy itself. In hindsight, he was never going to pass up the opportunity to take a measure of revenge on both the opponent and the place. The champions are wired that way. Bernard Hinault, who forged his 1980 world title on the very same stretch of road, would surely have done exactly the same.

It seems preposterous to say that Pogačar – already winner of two Monuments this season – came into Friday’s stage with something to prove, but that comes with the territory. The bar is set higher for him than anyone else. Every day he has to prove he’s still Tadej Pogačar, and a mild setback, like the one he suffered in Wednesday’s time trial, can take on the dimensions of a crisis by the time the headlines are written at day’s end.

More importantly, it can give considerable succour to Pogačar’s rivals. Vingegaard’s deep-seated belief in his ability to outlast Pogačar in the white heat of the Tour de France wasn’t shaken even in defeat last summer, and the Dane would have been increasingly optimistic about his prospects for the 2025 edition after his spirited start to the Critérium du Dauphiné and, in particular, his fine display in the time trial.

Before the start in Valserhône, Pogačar spoke dutifully of the need to keep the Tour de France in mind and not “let ego ruin the week” by trying too hard to get back on terms with his eternal rival at the Dauphiné. He wasn’t lying, per se, but he just has a different way of keeping the Tour de France in mind than most.

Pogačar saw little point in holding something in reserve for July once he realised he could strike a blow in the here and now by riding Vingegaard off his wheel in the finale. The object of the exercise wasn’t just to plant some doubt in Vingegaard’s mind; Pogačar was riding as though he wanted to wipe the idea of winning the Tour from the Dane’s mind altogether.

It was certainly a certainly a sobering defeat for Vingegaard. He was the last man to resist the UAE Team Emirates-XRG forcing on the Côte de Domancy, but he was utterly powerless to match Pogačar’s winning effort with 7km to go. As is increasingly his wont, Pogačar’s acceleration was a seated one and it immediately burned Vingegaard off his wheel. When Vingegaard climbed out of the saddle in an attempt to follow, it was hard not to think of Tom Boonen grappling to follow Fabian Cancellara on the Muur at the 2010 Tour of Flanders. Even by Pogačar’s outlandish standards, this was an almost absurd show of strength.

From there, it was yet another exhibition. Pogačar soared up the following Côte de la Cry, building a lead of 1:01 over Vingegaard by the time he reached the finish in Combloux. Like Pogačar two years ago, Vingegaard was, by a distance, the best of the rest. The trouble is, he was never really in the same race as the day’s winner Pogačar.

Vingegaard’s disappointment will be all the more acute because Visma | Lease a Bike had attempted to isolate Pogačar by attacking on the category 1 Côte de Mont-Saxonnex, but his UAE guard were back in place on the run-in to the finale, where they set a supersonic tempo on behalf of their leader. 

It was a collective defeat as well as an individual one, as Pogačar hinted after the finish. “We don’t have a pure climbing team here,” he said, a pointed reminder that mountain mainstays João Almeida and Adam Yates will be added to mix in July. Vingegaard, by contrast, has Matteo Jorgenson, a solid fourth on the stage, and Sepp Kuss for company here, but that support was of limited value against Pogačar on a climb like this. In the latest instalment of their never-ending head-to-head contest, Vingegaard found himself a strikingly long way off the pace. He isn’t the only one.

“It was amazing what he did today, putting a minute into Jonas and almost two minutes into me,” Evenepoel said admiringly. “He has shown once again who is the best rider in the world. Tomorrow is going to be the same story – try to follow as much as possible and limit the time loss.”

And yet, the Dauphiné isn’t over just yet. Pogačar’s pyrotechnics have offset his losses in the time trial, but his GC advantage over Vingegaard – 43 seconds – is not insurmountable. Saturday’s stage to Valmeinier 1800 is a very different kind of offering, with the Col de la Madeleine and the Col de la Croix de Fer preceding the final climb. 

It’s a test of endurance rather than explosiveness, and Vingegaard has always couched himself as the ultimate endurance rider. His Tour victories over Pogačar were forged on longer climbs and on superior powers of resistance in the third week. 

Vingegaard will need to lean on those gifts and more here. On Friday’s stark evidence, it seems fanciful to imagine he can unseat Pogačar at this Dauphiné. But avoiding another similar setback on his favoured terrain suddenly seems urgent with the Tour just three weeks away.