The favourites for the green jersey - Domestique Stars

With a revised points system and a parcours that blurs the line between flat and punchy stages, the race for the maillot vert is no longer the exclusive domain of pure sprinters. Riders like Van der Poel and Van Aert now find themselves in direct competition - each bringing a different blend of top-end speed, versatility and team support. Add Pogačar into the mix, and the result is a points classification wide open like rarely before.

So what do our creators think? Who holds the upper hand, and could a dark horse come closer than expected?

Points classification is wide open this year after a long time, and it's hard to say who will win it all in the end. There are two types of sprints in this edition of the Tour de France. First: the flat sprints, categorised by the organisers as 50-point sprints, where Tim Merlier, Jasper Philipsen and Jonathan Milan are expected to split the roles and the best positions among them. Every leadout, every launch during the sprint will count, even if this year Merlier might be half a step ahead of everyone.

The other type, on the other hand, are sprints that worth 30 points that pack some punch, either during a sprint or as hills included in the last quarter of the stage. This is where the mighty van der Poel-van Aert fight that many are waiting for, supplemented by either Pogačar or any general classification favourite, could come in.

To sum up, the biggest question is who can best match these two worlds, who possesses both speed and explosiveness simultaneously, which is how I eventually came to conclude that Jonathan Milan is my expected winner. Milan has two points classification victories in his two Grand Tours so far, and has shown this year that he is still a force to be reckoned with in sprints, but the UAE Tour showed that even double-digit gradients suit him on certain occasions. Lidl-Trek has built the team to supplement the lineup almost to the maximum in support of Milan’s goals - the only question about Jonathan is his Tour de France experience, as he makes his debut in this race in 2025: it’s always been tough to win the green jersey on first occasion, but if anyone can do it, it’s Milan.

*****  Milan
****  van Aert, van der Poel
***  Merlier, Philipsen, Pogačar
**  Girmay, Groenewegen, Nys, Meeus
*  De Lie, Evenepoel, Lund Andresen, Ganna, Wærenskjold

When I do the simulation, I notice that Pogačar will score the most points at the finish line. That’s remarkable for a top favourite in the Tour, but that's mainly because the organizers award 50 points in many punchy stages. He won’t involve himself in intermediate sprints, so there’s only a small chance he’ll take green. It can only happen if the sprinters and puncheurs fail. Van Aert is usually the rider with the best chances for green, since he can compete in both flat sprints and hilly stages. But yet again, there are question marks: What form will he be in at the start? How many flat stages will he contest in the sprints? Due to those uncertainties, I can’t call him the top favourite at the time of writing.

Van der Poel has all the qualities to aim for green this year, the organizers are giving him the chance to win the green jersey, that's never happened before. Van der Poel is the best puncher at the start, but don't think he gets these stages for free, he needs to be at his very best to win those. There are some question marks too, but not about his form: Will he contest the intermediate sprints? Does Philipsen have bigger ambitions for green or is he skipping it this year? The latter also has all the qualities to win green: the endurance and the top lead-out are there. But with him, the question is whether he can score enough points at the finish in the flat stages. First place is worth 50 points, but third only 20. In terms of pure sprinting speed, he’s a notch below Merlier and Milan. In that sense, Merlier is a major ally for both Van der Poel and Van Aert, if he can snatch those 50 points at the finish several times. I don’t see Merlier making a serious attempt to compete for green all the way to Paris. He shouldn’t focus on that and instead just aim for stage wins, although he might wear green briefly in the early stages.

The third top sprinter is Milan, and he actually ticks the most boxes when I go through the list of requirements for green. That’s why I’ve placed him at the top. A strong lead-out train, good form, high top-end speed, never gives up in a sprint, great endurance. But in the end, it can come down to small details,  if MVDP contests the intermediate sprints and takes two stage wins in stages 2, 4, or 7, Milan will have to dig very deep.

Girmay deserves an honorable mention as last year’s winner, but in this field and with this points system, I don’t see it going his way.

*****  Milan
****  Philipsen, Van der Poel
***  van Aert
**  Pogačar
*  Merlier, Girmay

Wout is my favourite for the green jersey. With this parcours and the new points system, I think the jersey will go to someone who can contest flat sprints and also perform on the punchier stages - exactly the kind of rider Wout is. Because of these new rules, punchers, sprinters and even Pogačar can now go for green. It’s going to be a very interesting battle!

*****  van Aert 
****  Milan
***  Philipsen
**  Pogačar, van der Poel
*  Merlier, Meeus, Girmay

Milan leads the predictions, with two out of three creators backing him for green. The Italian combines sprint power with a team fully built around his goal. Van der Poel and Philipsen are close behind, though tactical choices - and whether they share responsibilities - could complicate their bids. Van Aert remains a contender if form and freedom align.