The favourites for the polka dot jersey - Domestique Stars

One of the most recognisable jerseys in all of cycling - synonymous with the Tour de France, the polka dot jersey is awarded to the winner of the mountains classification, and often produces exciting and attacking racing. The mountains classification was introduced in 1933, but the polka dot jersey didn’t actually appear in the race until 1975.

Last year’s winner Richard Carapaz will not be in attendance to defend his jersey as the Ecuadorian star misses out through illness. As has happened on multiple occasions, there is always a possibility that the GC winner could also win the mountains classification, such as when Tadej Pogačar did in 2020 and 2021, and Jonas Vingegaard in 2023. Standout contenders for the polka dot battle this year, beyond Pogačar and Vingegaard, include Lenny Martinez (Bahrain-Victorious), Michael Storer (Tudor) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) with iconic mountains such as the Col du Tourmalet, Mont Ventoux and Col de La Loze on the horizon among many others. 

So what do our creators think? Who holds the upper hand, and could a dark horse come closer than expected?

The climbers' classification is always the most difficult category to predict, as we never know who is aiming deliberately for it and who will change their goal during the race to chase the polka-dot jersey. This year, the high mountains are all in the second half of the race, and I believe that the Pogačar-Vingegaard duo, and especially their teams, will control most of the mountain days to such an extent that they will end up scoring the big points for the mountain top finishes. In contrast, on the other climbs during the day, the riders in the breakaway will share the points so that in the end, one of the contenders in the general classification will win this jersey. Who else could be in contention? Michael Storer, who is coming into this Tour de France completely pressure-free and who I think will try to pick up enough points from breakaways, and Lenny Martinez, who has announced that this will be his main goal in the race this year.

*****  Pogačar
****  Vingegaard, Storer
***  Lenny Martinez, Healy, Lipowitz
**  Castrillo, Skjelmose, T Johannessen, Gall
*  Evenepoel, Roglič, Powless, Van Eetvelt, Vauquelin

Summit finishes (including the mountain time trial): 135 points
Points available before the finish in mountain stages: 163 points

If you want to win the KOM classification, you obviously need to be a strong climber. One major difference compared to last year is where the double points climb (40 points) is located. In 2024, that was the Col de la Bonette, which came mid-stage, meaning those points went to a breakaway rider (Carapaz). If the double points had been on the final climb back then, Pogačar might well have taken the polka dot jersey last year, instead of Carapaz.

This year, however, the double points are awarded on the Col de la Loze at the finish, so there's a bigger chance that the best climber will take those points, which makes things more difficult for attackers. Last year, there was also no mountain time trial, and no stage with a flat run-in followed by a summit finish on an HC climb (Mont Ventoux).

That said, based on the three key differences mentioned above, I’m selecting Pogačar as the top favorite, even though he won't target the polka dot jersey of course. So there's certainly an opportunity for others to try their luck. That brings me to riders like Lenny Martinez and Michael Storer. They’re not targeting the GC and have the right profile. Still, things have to fall into place for them, they’ll likely focus on a stage win first, and if that succeeds, they might seriously contest the KOM jersey afterward. As for Tobias Johannessen, it’s unclear whether he’s aiming for a top 10 overall or planning to leave this and go on the attack. He has a good profile for the polka dot jersey, especially since he also has a decent sprint. Healy will likely collect points through aggressive racing, though his pure climbing ability might fall short but I believe he still has room to grow and could surprise a few people in the high mountains.

Skjelmose has already stated that the GC isn’t a main goal for him, so that puts him in the mix as an outsider for the KOM. Then there's a next tier of riders who could fight for this jersey if they drop out of GC contention: Evenepoel and Gall, plus the second-best climber in the world and a Brit in top form who will also look for opportunities in breakaways. While the chance of someone from this last group actually winning the polka dot jersey is small, they still deserve a mention as potential attackers who could rack up points.

*****  Pogačar
****  Lenny Martinez, Storer
***  T. Johannessen, Healy, Skjelmose
**  Evenepoel, Vingegaard, Gall, Onley
*  Champoussin, Van Eetvelt, Castrillo, Baudin, Powless

With the number of summit finishes and the climbing time trial, I think the KOM will go to Pogačar. But let’s hope we get a great battle. Skjelmose and Martinez have already expressed their ambition for the KOM, Uno-X is aiming for it too... It feels like there are a lot of quality climbers going for stages and the KOM in this Tour, more so than in other Grand Tours - which I really enjoy.
I don’t understand why some riders still aim for GC knowing they’ll finish 10th at best, when they could actually have a good shot at stage wins.

*****  Pogačar
****  Skjelmose, Lenny Martinez
***  Vingegaard, Storer, T. Johannessen 
**  Gall, Onley, Baudin, Rubio
*  Van Eetvelt, Armirail, Healy, Champoussin, Dunbar

Pogačar tops the star ratings, unanimously backed by all three creators as the most likely winner of the polka dot jersey - even if he doesn’t actively target it. His presence in the high mountains and the location of key points on summit finishes could tilt the classification in his favour by default. Lenny Martinez and Michael Storer emerge as the most credible challengers, each backed for their breakaway potential and climbing prowess. Skjelmose and Tobias Johannessen are considered strong outsiders, with their ambitions and racing style keeping them in the mix.