The favourites for the Tour de France GC - Domestique Stars

The 2025 Tour de France kicks off in Lille and sets the stage for the next chapter in the era-defining rivalry between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard. After two consecutive duels shaped as much by setbacks as by brilliance, this edition might finally deliver the clean contest fans have been waiting for. Remco Evenepoel, the third pillar in this GC triangle, will be out to disrupt the script and perhaps write his own.

So what do our creators think? Who holds the upper hand, and could a dark horse come closer than expected?

Pogačar starts as the clear favourite in my opinion. He's not unbeatable, but his weaknesses have only diminished over the past few years. Where could he still be vulnerable? A windy stage? Col de la Loze? Seems unlikely. I hope Vingegaard can truly challenge him, but even if he does, actually beating Pogačar will still be tough for Jonas. I’m actually expecting the same top four as last year but I also expect a solid Tour from Roglič, finishing in the top five without any bad luck (a very bold prediction!). No surprise names in the one star category, although I do expect a strong second half of the Tour from Arensman.

*****  Pogačar
****  Vingegaard
***  Evenepoel, Almeida
**  Roglič, Lipowitz, Jorgenson
*  Buitrago, Gall, Mas, A. Yates

The time has come for the biggest race on the men's calendar, the Tour de France. When the route was announced last year, my basic thesis was that whoever was ahead of the Pogačar-Vingegaard duo after the mountain ITT in Peyragudes would win this race. The route offered great opportunities for defence, and although both members of this rivalry prefer attacking racing, sometimes that is what it takes to win. However, after Critérium du Dauphiné, this preconception underwent significant changes in this regard. 

The Slovenian star of UAE Emirates-XRG had such an advantage in the mountains during the 8 days that it may not be possible to overcome with 3 weeks of preparation, even if there are rivals who occasionally gain some advantage over him. In my opinion, he will win, but Vingegaard could still finish second if the race proceeds smoothly.

The question of third place, the bronze medal, will be just as interesting as the victory: last year, we saw a fierce battle between Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič until the middle of the second week, when Roglič crashed. This year, João Almeida and Felix Gall (and others we are not currently considering) may join the fray, so it will be worth keeping an eye on this as well; however, at the moment, I see a repeat of last year's podium as the most likely scenario.

*****  Pogačar
****  Vingegaard, Evenepoel
***  Roglič, Gall, Almeida
**  Lipowitz, Skjelmose, Mas, Martinez
*  T. Halland Johannessen, Jorgenson, Onley, Rodríguez, O’Connor

I still believe in Jonas. I think too many conclusions are being drawn from last year’s Tour de France and this year’s Critérium du Dauphiné. People seem to forget in what condition Jonas had to prepare for last year’s Tour. Drawing conclusions from the Dauphiné is always risky - Jonas and Pog don’t care about their GC standings there; it’s pure preparation for them.

The Tour parcours suits Jonas perfectly, so let’s see what happens. As for the podium, I think we could see a great battle between Almeida and Remco. I’m also curious to see how Roglic bounces back after the Giro.

*****  Vingegaard
****  Pogačar
***  Evenepoel, Almeida
**  Roglič, Lipowitz, Gall
*  Jorgenson, Rodriguez, Buitrago

Pogačar is the clear favourite, with two of the three creators backing him to win. Even Dieter, who puts Vingegaard on top, admits the Slovenian will be hard to beat. Behind them, Evenepoel and Almeida are the main picks for the final podium spot. Roglič splits opinion, though a clean run should still put him in the top five. Further down, names like Lipowitz, Gall and Jorgenson might surprise, but it will likely take something special to prevent another Tour defined by the sport’s top two.