The power of the Belgian national jersey - stage 15 Domestique Debrief

Before the start of stage 15, most of the community expected another long breakaway formation – the first 60 kilometres of the stage were almost entirely flat, and the 20-25 km/h westerly wind provided the opportunity for a very serious battle to develop for the final breakaway. This is one of the biggest lessons of this year's Tour de France: getting into the breakaway has now become completely bipolar: either a group is allowed to go after 2 kilometres, or there will be an hour-and-a-half battle involving at least 40 riders in some form. That is why it was so surprising how the first 15 kilometres began, as Neilson Powless was the only attacker for a long time on this day. Tobias Foss, Alexey Lutsenko, and Yevgeniy Fedorov followed the American for a while, but the first 25 minutes passed in relative calm.

Then came the crash.

It wasn't a big one, and as far as we know, it didn't have any serious physical consequences, but it completely reshuffled the balance of power on the day, especially in the first 60 kilometres. Florian Lipowitz fell, and the crash also held up Jonas Vingegaard. Meanwhile, at the front, UAE and Tadej Pogačar gained a one-minute advantage with a group of about 40 riders. From Pogačar's point of view, the situation was clear: due to the transitional stage and the fact that his rivals had fallen behind through no fault of their own, he wanted to wait for them – but at the same time, as we were still well within the breakaway formation, he found himself in a kind of pincer movement through no fault of his own – the groups came together within 20-25 kilometres, but this was much more than Pogačar would have liked, and more than Vingegaard, Lipowitz, or Onley had counted on. 

Florian Lipowitz's behaviour was particularly interesting, as he showed signs of anxiety (which is completely normal in a new situation for someone riding in his first Tour as a key rider). Still, with the help of his team, they quickly resolved the problem. From Visma | Lease a Bike's point of view, it was a win-win situation at the beginning: Sepp Kuss and Simon Yates brought Jonas Vingegaard back into the peloton, while Wout van Aert and Victor Campenaerts went into the breakaway, which included Powless, who had already attacked at the beginning of the stage, Tim Wellens, and Mathieu van der Poel, among others – a very strong group that the peloton controlled by about 40 seconds before the first climbs.

The more enthusiastic Jonathan Milan fans may have believed that today could seriously help Milan's green jersey campaign – and it didn't start badly for the Italian, as he was in the first group of 40 riders that avoided the crash, in a group with van der Poel, and even attacked once after that. However, he then fell behind the first group on the flat section and was unable to catch up with Vingegaard and the others. By the foot of the Côte de Saint-Ferréol, he was already at an irreversible disadvantage. This was particularly bad for Milan, as one of his biggest rivals, Mathieu van der Poel, was able to score 20 points easily. However, after the intermediate sprint, the Dutch superstar from Alpecin also fell behind the leading group quite quickly and did not score any more points.

Going into the final week, Milan still has an advantage, with 28 points over Pogačar and 41 points over van der Poel. If we examine the profiles of the final week, not all the intermediate sprints are in places that could significantly benefit Milan. The only thing that could help him would be to win stage 17 in Valence – those 50 points would be a huge step toward winning the jersey. It is also vital for him to stay healthy, and Monday's rest day could help with that.

6 kilometres, 5% gradients, and numerous attacks due to the peloton being tightly packed. The best defence is a good offence, and five riders broke away from the first group, including Wellens, Campenaerts, and Mohorič, leaving behind the pair of van der Poel and van Aert, who were considered the favourites for the stage. 

Meanwhile, there were two waves of attacks in the peloton. The first wave was the more successful, as Lidl-Trek rider Quinn Simmons, who has been in fantastic form in this year's Tour, and Tudor's best rider this year, Michael Storer, jumped up to the front group, showing a tremendous climbing performance on the medium mountain. Encouraged by this, attacks continued to come from the peloton, with a group of about 25 riders including Thibau Nys, Warren Barguil, Valentin Madouas and Carlos Rodríguez, but they were unable to catch the leading group. 

Florian Lipowitz's attack at the end of Sorèze was another highlight, with the German trying to put Vingegaard in a difficult position, but all the GC contenders reacted well to the attack and checked out of today's race, agreeing to a truce. The cooperation in the breakaway was surprisingly good; no team had a numerical advantage, which made the highlight of the day, the Pas du Sant climb, particularly interesting.

There should be more Pas du Sant-type mountains in the Tour de France and any other Grand Tour. Thierry Gouvenou's route-planning was perfect, placing the day's most difficult climb about 50 kilometres before the finish line, followed by an almost 10-kilometre-long false flat plateau, thus ensuring that there would be no completely senseless attacks on the mountain, but at the same time, the steep section still allowed for differences to emerge. It is rare these days to see a plateau following a hill, but as we saw, it made a huge difference – the front of the pack split in two here. 

From the first group, it was Michael Storer and Quinn Simmons who tried to turn things to their advantage on the steep section. They completed the mountain with a few seconds' advantage over the Campenaerts-Wellens duo, who were trying to build on their experience and their own pace (which paid off in the long run, as it turned out in the end) – while Carlos Rodríguez and Aleksandr Vlasov tried to take advantage of the false flat section to catch the leading group. They succeeded, and an 8-man group formed to fight for the stage victory. Then, a tactical decision had to be made – with heavy legs, this became the most crucial point of the day.

Upon reaching Pas du Sant, every rider in the leading group was faced with a decision. There was a 30-kilometre downhill section ahead, where it was impossible to attack, so the big question was who had enough strength to attack at the end of the false flat, whether anyone dared to do so, or whether everyone would wait for the final sprint in the last 10 kilometres. Then came Tim Wellens' moment; he had been managing his efforts in an exemplary manner until then and attacked at the very end of the climb. During the attack, the 5 metres became 10, and the 10 became 50 – and these culminated in seconds after 500 metres. 

The attack itself was a serious move, lasting 50 seconds, with two huge accelerations, the second of which completely broke the lone chaser, Warren Barguil, and the rest of the group. There was no agreement at all at the back, due to conflicts of interest and the fact that, to a certain extent, everyone's legs had given up. Wellens took advantage of this and built up a 1-minute lead in 10 minutes, which he maintained until the end.

A 43.6-kilometre solo ride at an average speed of 59.2 km/h, this was the longest solo victory of Wellens' career. The Belgian has had an incredibly eventful Tour de France, having already worn the polka dot jersey and significantly helped Pogačar as a domestique in the Pyrenees. Now he has won the missing Grand Tour stage, joining the illustrious Triple Crown club at the age of 34 – a wonderful Tour de France, both individually and as a team.

Almost everything had been decided during the day, but then there was an unexpected scene that provided even more talking points after such a crazy day. Victor Campenaerts' late attack earned Visma | Lease a Bike a second place, strengthening their first place in the team competition, while a group of 22 riders sprinted for third place due to the merging of different groups, including van Aert, Axel Laurance, Stuyven and Thibau Nys. However, it was Julian Alaphilippe who took the bronze medal, celebrating spectacularly as if he had won the day.

Five minutes later, it turned out that this was indeed the case: Alaphilippe's radio had broken down, and he was unaware that Wellens and Campenaerts had finished ahead of him. This provided a lot of talking points, as Alaphilippe has a history of mistaken celebrations, as seen in Liège-Bastogne-Liège in 2020; however, this time, I think he somehow had reason to celebrate. It was his first podium finish in this race after the opening day of the 2021 Tour de France, and it was also Tudor Pro Cycling Team's second third-place finish after Storer's podium finish in stage 6. What's more, Julian achieved this despite being the one who spent the longest time on the ground after a crash early in the day, holding his shoulder and fearing that he had been injured. He dislocated his shoulder, which he had to put back into place himself, making this podium even more unbelievable. Today showcased once again that LouLou is a tremendous fighter, and surely, he will be close to victory in the few breakaway opportunities that arise in the final week of the race.