Tour de France Femmes stage 7 preview: half a chance for the break?

A brief calm before the storm in the Alps over the weekend, stage 6 between Bourg-en- Bresse and Chambery takes the bunch from the edge of the Jura Moutnains to the heart of the Alps. Hilly, but not mountainous, a wide variety of riders are capable of being there in the final, but with big times gaps created on stage six, surely it’s time for the break to shine?

Start: 13:30 CET
Estimated arrival: 17:30 CET
Stage distance: 159.7km
Elevation gain: 1953m

The opening 100km of the stage is almost completely flat, with just some minor undulations as the race heads south. The day’s intermediate sprint at Groslée-Saint-Benoît comes after 73km, and the terrain becomes more rolling soon after, with the first climb ramping up with just 51 of the day’s 159.7km remaining.

We think a break will get away here. There are some big time gaps now, and if the right riders are up the road, they’ll likely be given some freedom.

The Côte de Saint-Franc covers only 3.8km, but its hefty average gradient of 6.9% will challenge many and could define the day — especially if the breakaway gets over the Col du Granier too. At 8.9km with an average gradient of 5.4%, it’s very similar to the Col du Chansert tackled at the end of stage 6: hard enough to drop some, but also a perfect launchpad.

What comes afterwards puts a fascinating twist on the stage: a 17km descent into Chambéry. It’s fairly technical to start, with sweeping bends and a few hairpins. Once it levels out, there are roundabouts, twists, chicanes and narrow sections. Only the final 800m are straightforward. Riders will need to stay sharp.

At least there’ll be no rain to add to the hazards, with none forecast all day. And though it’ll be 28º, that’s not quite warm enough to melt the tarmac. As for the wind - the long, straight run south might suggest crosswinds, but it looks like a tailwind of no more than 15kph.

We think this is one for the breakaway, but there’s a chance some GC teams might decide otherwise and use the long descent to ride clear of those less capable on such terrain. So if it comes back together before that 17km downhill, there’s no one better than Cédrine Kerbaol (EF Education-Oatly).

She’s been pretty quiet this Tour, only coming to the front on descents or in technical finales, where she and Kasia Niewiadoma (Canyon//SRAM-zondacrypto) seem to be having a friendly battle. Both have a good kick, but we think the Frenchwoman will edge it.

One rider who hasn’t been hiding is Dutch climber Silke Smulders. A punchy, aggressive rider, the Liv-AlUla-Jayco talent has been battling for mountain points with Elise Chabbey (FDJ-SUEZ). At some point, though, Chabbey will be needed by Demi Vollering in the mountains - and another breakaway could compromise that, giving Smulders the opportunity to make her mark.

While they weren’t at last year’s race, VolkerWessels have been one of the most aggressive teams in the peloton, placing riders in the break every day so far. Margot Van Pachtenbeke, arguably their best climber, was visible at the front deep into stage 6 and finished sixth. She’s more than eight minutes down on GC and may well be allowed up the road.

We were going to mention Maeva Squiban, but after her stage-winning heroics, it’s unlikely the UAE Team ADQ rider will be up for another nerve-jangling day. Step up Brodie Chapman. The team have their tails up after Squiban’s win, they want more stage success, and with the weekend’s summit finishes likely to go to the GC riders, this stage may be their last real chance.

Chapman is strong, up for a fight, and more than capable of seizing the opportunity.