Tour de France stage 15 preview - A breakaway fight for glory in Carcassonne

Already the final stage of the second week, the Tour is flying by. The stage to Carcassonne is a classic transitional stage: too tough for the sprinters, but not hard enough for GC action. That usually means it’s a golden opportunity for the attackers to try their luck.

Start: 13:30 CET
Estimated arrival: 17:18 CET
Length stage: 169.3km
Elevation gain: 2331m

The first 16 kilometres are fairly flat, so the battle for the break is expected to continue in the hilly 20 kilometres that follow.

The intermediate sprint comes at the end of the profile shown below, after a 2.1 km climb at an average gradient of 3.8%. 

As the riders leave Revel, they're already into the final 100 kilometres of the stage. They now head into the Montagne Noire, and they'll certainly start to feel it. The first categorised climb of the day is the Côte de Saint-Ferréol.

Côte de Saint-Ferréol (1.8km at 6.4%) 
3rd category - 96.7km to go

This twisting climb has been given the same category as the previous one, which is rather absurd. It’s also longer than the stage profile suggests.

Côte de Sorèze (7.2km at 5.4%) 
3rd category - 83km to go

After the climb to Sorèze, there's still a plateau before the riders reach the real summit, followed by a fairly technical descent, even if it never gets truly steep. This 27 km stretch between the summit of Sorèze and the foot of the next climb can be seen as a section for anticipation within the breakaway, especially for those who are afraid to survive the tough Pas du Sant.

I already mentioned the name: the Pas du Sant is the toughest climb of the day. At 2.9 km with an average gradient of nearly 10%, it’s bound to play a significant role, even though it comes more than 50 kilometres from the finish.

Pas du Sant (2.9km at 9.5%) 
2nd category - 52,8km to go

From the top of the Pas du Sant, the road continues to climb towards Fontbruno. This might well be the most important section of the stage, because if you were already on your limit on the Pas du Sant, there's no chance to recover here. You can really make the difference here, either break away with a few others, or, if you have really good legs, go solo. The gradient may look modest due to some flatter sections, but don’t be fooled, this is a stretch where real gaps can be made. 

Col Fontbruno - 10.4km at 2.6%
Non-categorised - 52.7km to go

At the summit, 42.3 km remain, most of which are downhill, with some occasional uphill kickers. With the wind at their backs, the breakaway leader(s) aren’t at a disadvantage as they head toward Carcassonne in fast modus. The roads stay twisty, so they quickly slip out of view.

The final 10 kilometres are almost completely flat and the final 6 kilometres follow exactly the same route as in 2022, alongside the Canal du Midi.

Leaving the Pyrenees brings back summer conditions, with temperatures reaching 30°C. The clouds will clear, and the sun is out again. The wind is at the riders’ backs all day.

1. Milan: 251p
2. Pogacar: 223p
3. Van der Poel: 190p
4. Girmay: 169p
5. Merlier: 150p

There are 50 points at the finish and 20 at the intermediate sprint. Milan better stay alert tomorrow, there’s a good chance the break will be gone before the intermediate sprint. He now has to rely mainly on the intermediate sprints, so going on the attack seems the logical move, especially with a strong chance that Van der Poel will be there too.

Let’s agree that no sprint team will be keen to control this stage. Even the strong sprinters need a breather after three days in the Pyrenees, and this route is simply too tough to manage. The battle for the breakaway will be exciting to watch, and I expect a large group to form. The route is challenging but still leaves plenty of room for tactical moves. With a large group up the road, you can be sure there will be anticipation moves, you’ll need to be strong, but also smart, to win this stage. 

Here you got a list of breakaway contenders:

Category 1: Obvious names/bookies favorites
Riders: Van der Poel, van Aert, Simmons, Healy
Marked riders, they are often looked to for closing gaps. Obvious names don't win many of these stages, but they remain the “favorites”.

Category 2: The French hopes
Riders: Madouas, Grégoire, Pacher, Alaphilippe, Barré, Laurance, Armirail, A. Paret-Peintre, Burgadeau, Champoussin
One of the few chances for a French stage win, I think one of them will be close

Category 3: Guillaume Martin
Riders: Guillaume Martin
It’s just the “I’m Guillaume Martin, and I want to move up from 13th to 12th place in GC” category, he has no chance to win the stage

Category 4: Old but gold
Riders: G. Thomas, Trentin, Stuyven, Campenaerts, Lutsenko, Oliveira
Always be wary of the older foxes, even when they claim they’ve got nothing left in the tank. This list includes riders who get dropped three times and come back four. In stages like this, experience counts.

Category 5: I’m new here
Riders: Blackmore, Hoelgaard, Nys, Romeo, Berckmoes, Anders Johannessen
It’s their first Grand Tour, all that excitement is great, sure. But stages like this aren’t usually won by someone riding their first one. Or are they?

Category 6: The local
Riders: B. Thomas
He’s a native of this region. He came close three years ago, has been biding his time, but tomorrow, we’ll see him on the attack.

Category 7: Donostia Klasikoa
Riders: Powless, I. Izagirre, Skujins
“I want to test myself in the break here, but I’ll probably get a better result in Donostia Klasikoa.”

Category 8: Leader’s domestique
Riders: Wellens
This category may be seen as a surprise presence in the break, but that doesn’t make it any less dangerous, quite the opposite. Especially after spending the previous day on the bus.

Category 9: My leader is gone
Riders: Van Wilder, Eenkhoorn, Schachmann
Less unexpected but no less dangerous than the leader’s domestique, riders who watched their team leader leave the Tour and now want to test their freedom.

Category 10: Strong Scandinavians
Riders: Abrahamsen, Asgreen, Cort, Leknessund, Valgren
Scandinavians have a nose for this type of stage. They are cunning and strong, qualities needed to see it through successfully.

Category 11: Came already close
Riders: Sweeny, Wright, Van den Broek, Tejada, Neilands, De Lie, Van Eetvelt
They’ve come close to victory in a Grand Tour before, and now they want to hit the mark in the biggest of them all.

Category 12: Down Under warriors
Riders: O’Connor, Plapp, Groves
Watch out for tough Australians, they never give up.

Normally, I would have considered Schmid one of the favorites, but he’s been ill the past few days.

A solo win or a sprint between 2 to 4 riders seems most likely.

Three years ago, Philipsen won here ahead of Van Aert and Pedersen, after Benjamin Thomas was caught just 500 metres from the line.
The second half of the stage was noticeably less demanding back then than it is this time around.