Tour de France stage 16 - Is the Ventoux on Pogacar's bucketlist?

For the first time since 2013, the Tour returns to a summit finish on Mont Ventoux. The bald mountain shows no mercy, and the battle for glory rages on. Will Pogacar be able to tick off this legendary climb as well? Or will we see an attacker hold on?

Start: 12:40 CET
Estimated arrival: 16:57 CET
Length stage: 171,5km
Elevation gain: 2907m

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Yes, what can we say about the first 155 km? Not much. It’s typical for the Ventoux stage to have a long, flat run-in through the Rhône Valley. For climbers, it’s not an obvious day to get in the break. They could use the help of a powerful engine within their own team.

There’s an intermediate sprint in Chateauneuf-du-Pape after 112.4km. Cheers! 

This stage is classified as a "road stage with a rolling profile" and Category 3, which means there are 30 points available at the summit, more than in the other mountain stages. Will we see Milan or Van der Poel in the breakaway? If Milan doesn’t score points along the way and Pogacar wins the stage, Pogacar will take the lead in the points classification.

It's always a unique sight in this region. You can see the giant appear from afar, and there's no turning back once they pass Bédoin, where the road starts climbing steadily. What makes this climb so feared is that it's already really tough in the forest, with gradients around 10%. After that, you still have to battle the wind out in the exposed final 6km.

A light wind at the start, gradually picking up as they head towards the Ventoux. The last 6 km in the exposed section of the Ventoux are into a headwind. That makes it even more challenging. Sunny and temperatures between 26 and 29°C in the flat areas, 18°C at the summit. No extreme heat conditions.

One might suspect that UAE would want to make something of this.

• Mont Ventoux is one that Pogacar wants to check off his list
• It comes right after a rest day
• The following stage is probably for the sprinters
• Better stage than Superbagnères for Wellens, Narvaez and the current Adam Yates to launch Pogacar

But of course, it depends on whether they let a strong break go early in the race, we’ve seen it before that UAE don't always have this under control. A break with riders who go all out for their climber could reduce Pogacar’s chances of another victory. The question is also whether Pogacar is at his best, after some recent throat and nasal issues, but I do think so. So perhaps Politt will have another fun day at the front of the peloton. 

Vingegaard will try to put up a fight. Four years ago, he managed to drop Pogacar here, but the world has changed. If he manages to drop him now, it would be a major surprise. For second place, I don’t think he has any competition.

Lipowitz is the definition of consistency, and he’ll defend his third place well on this climb. His rivals are weaker, and they’re more likely to be looking over their shoulders than pushing forward.

Gall might believe in a podium finish on the Ventoux, which would be a fantastic result. Although it won’t be easy, he prefers multiple climbs and plenty of kilojoules in the legs, Loze and La Plagne should suit him better, but the man is looking good, the wider Gall's knees go, the faster he rides.

If UAE fails to control the race from the start, it’s possible that a few strong engines in the breakaway will launch their climber on the Ventoux. So even though the chance is smaller than, say, on Saturday, you always have to watch out for an early breakaway rider.

But which riders are able to win on the Ventoux? Based on the past week, I would put Lenny Martinez forward as the leading name. His main goal is defending the polka dot jersey, but the same applies to him: he has had two rest days and can take it easy the day after. A Frenchman winning on Mont Ventoux in the polka dot jersey is almost the greatest glory, maybe even bigger than winning the polka dot jersey itself. His team has enough strong riders who can help him get into the breakaway.

In the same team, I'm still waiting for a strong performance from Buitrago, who has been struggling to find his best form since his crash. Will this be your week, Santi?

Arensman is also another breakaway contender but he prefers a stage with multiple climbs over one with a single climb at the end. Given his current form, you have to keep an eye on him in every mountain stage this week. He’s got the watts for the flat part too.

I’d also like to mention Valentin Paret-Peintre, who we’ll see active this week as well. Quick Step’s plan should be to get him into the breakaway together with a teammate. His form is improving.

Visma will also try to sneak a rider in the break (Kuss, Yates, or Jorgenson), but UAE won’t allow them a stage win, if one of them gets ahead, Politt will push even harder than usual.

I don't think we'll see anyone from the top 8 in the early breakaway, and if do manage to pull it off, the threatened teams will go full gas.

The Ventoux sometimes brings out surprising names, we’ll never forget the battle between Garate and Tony Martin. Attackers have a decent track record here, in the last five editions of the Tour featuring the Ventoux, four were won by breakaway riders.

But my belief remains that if Pogacar feels completely at his best, he will go all out for the stage. The Ventoux really shouldn’t be missing from the palmares of the greatest cyclist of this era.

Four years ago was the last time Mont Ventoux was included in the route, with the finish in Malaucène. Van Aert shook off his breakaway companions and successfully completed his raid. It was also the stage where Vingegaard dropped Pogacar but saw his lead disappear on the descent.