Tour de France stage 18 preview - Does Pogacar also settle the score with the Col de la Loze?

The two-day Alpes block promises to be tough, starting with the stage to Col de la Loze, which includes 3 HC climbs and 5.472 meters of elevation gain. Since 2013, there has never been another Tour stage with that much elevation gain. Will Pogacar take his ultimate revenge after what happened to him in 2023?

Start: 12:20 CET
Estimated arrival: 17:19 CET
Length stage: 171,5km
Elevation gain: 5472m

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From the start in Vif, the road rises gradually and the intermediate sprint comes after just 23.7 km. Do Trek and Milan want to secure the points jersey? Then it makes sense to focus solely on the first 23 km and control the bunch a bit, you never know what might happen in Paris. I think we can expect a definitive breakaway in the first part of the Glandon, full of climbers.

The southern side of the Col de la Glandon is mainly characterized by its irregular gradients. Its low average gradient may suggest it's an easy climb, but one glance at the profile tells you otherwise. 

Col du Glandon (21.7km at 5.1%) 
Hors catégorie- 109.2km to go

A relentless climb with a rich history, perhaps the toughest in this year’s Tour. If the pace is high here, you’ll see riders getting dropped that you wouldn’t expect so far from the finish.

Col de la Madeleine (19.2km at 7.9%) 
Hors catégorie - 66.9km to go

It will be interesting to see whether the peloton can break Jan Ullrich’s iconic climbing record on the Col de la Madeleine. Much will depend on how the race unfolds - and whether Vingegaard, in particular, chooses to ignite the battle early.

The fast but at times technical descent is followed by 15 km of valley, not enjoyable for a breakaway rider, but if you went on the attack on the Madeleine out of the GC group, (a) teammate(s) from the breakaway can be a big help to you here.

This side of the Col de la Loze has never been fully climbed in the Tour before. It's the easier of the two approaches, but still tough enough to make a difference, especially in the final 5 to 6 kilometers.

Col de la Loze (26.4km at 6.5%)
Hors catégorie

The climb is fairly steady until they pass the altiport. The final 5.2 km of the Col de la Loze repeatedly hit double-digit gradients, after such a long climb, that really takes its toll, even if the flatter sections offer brief moments to catch your breath.

A crucial stage for the mountains classification, with 40 points available along the way and double points on the Loze, making it 80 points in total. To keep his chances alive, Martinez needs to take maximum points on those first two climbs. 

The weather remains unsettled in and around the Alps. Light showers are possible at any time of day. 22°C in the valley, 11–12°C at the summits. The wind is fairly negligible.

This is truly an incredibly tough stage, and Visma will use these two days to try and find a crack in Pogacar’s armor. The question is how best to approach it here, the final climb is long and hard, and the penultimate climb is still quite far from the finish. Visma’s preferred scenario is definitely to isolate Pogacar. An attack on the Madeleine would take guts, and I wouldn’t rule it out as Vingegaard insists he’ll give it his all, even if it means that he can lose his second place. I also expect UAE to want someone in the breakaway.

Based on the last two mountain stages, a great duel is certainly possible. But Jonas also needs to be careful not to get caught out by a counterattack.

In stages this deep into the Tour, with Visma unwilling to allow a “quiet” mountain day, the chance of a breakaway rider winning isn’t high, but it’s not impossible either. However, they are mostly dependent on others. Someone who has done this before on the Loze, is Felix Gall. Felix wasn’t feeling great yesterday morning (alternating between cold and warm), but it seems his top form is lurking nearby. Since he’s a direct threat to Bora and Onley, they won’t just let him go in the breakaway easily, although you can’t always stop that when the break forms uphill. Whether he chooses to go on the attack tomorrow or stays defensive and tries to ride for a top result out of GC, in theory this stage suits him better than his rivals. But what do his legs say? And his knees?

Basically, it’s simple: very few riders can win this stage because it’s so tough, and you need quite a big advantage at the foot of the Loze. Attackers like Arensman, Mas, Buitrago, Rubio and Rodriguez will need top legs and a bit of luck. They seem to me the main contenders from the break. For Lenny Martinez, that final climb will probably be too much.

Will Pogacar put the finishing touch on the climb that spelled his Waterloo two years ago? Let’s hope for a great battle but I’m not saying anything unusual when I call Pogacar the top favorite.

Just one picture.