Vingegaard adopts Classics state of mind at Tour de France - Analysis

In each of Vingegaard’s Tour wins, his strategy was predicated largely on his powers of endurance. Like a 10,000m runner waiting for the bell, Vingegaard seemed to believe he could outlast Pogačar as the race grew longer and as the road climbed higher.

That confidence wasn’t misplaced. Vingegaard won the 2022 Tour by dropping Pogačar on the Col du Granon after pummelling him with attacks over the Galibier. Twelve months later, he won the Tour by crushing Pogačar in the third-week time trial to Combloux and then piling on the pain on the Col de la Loze the following day.

But the Pogačar of 2022 and 2023, though already vying with Eddy Merckx for the title of the greatest of all-time, was far from the finished article. Then as now, he was the best cyclist in the world, but there were some glaring gaps in his armoury in three-week races, which Vingegaard ruthlessly exploited.

Pogačar had been stronger than any errors he made en route to victory at the 2020 and 2021 Tours, but the occasional stumble was apparent, most notably in high temperatures and at high altitude. Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike had taken note, and they made hay in those specific situations in 2022 and 2023.

By last year, however, Pogačar had taken remedial action, which seemed to coincide with his switch to being coached by Javier Sola. His 2024 vintage was simply on a different plane to anything he had produced before and, most strikingly, his apparent vulnerability to altitude and extreme heat had seemingly been excised.

A mild wobble at Le Lioran aside, Pogačar was never remotely troubled on the 2024 Tour, and he seemed to take particular joy in stamping his authority all over stage 19 to Isola 2000, the high-altitude test that had been billed beforehand as a playground for Vingegaard and Visma. 

Last winter, they were sent back to the drawing board.

Although the 2025 Tour features three mountain passes where Vingegaard has previously bettered Pogačar – Hautacam on stage 12, Mont Ventoux on stage 16 and the Col de la Loze on stage 18 – the Dane shows few signs of waiting for friendly terrain to wage war on his rival.

Instead, Vinegaard and Visma have been aggressive from the very outset of this Tour. 

On Saturday’s windswept run-in to Lille, Vingegaard himself played a part in forming the stage-winning echelon. On stage 2 to Boulogne-sur-Mer, Vingegaard attacked with intent after the climb of the Côte d’Outreau with 5km remaining, and he wound up contesting the uphill sprint with Pogačar and winner Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) for stage victory.

Vingegaard had to settle for third – “I guess I’m a sprinter,” he smiled – and he conceded a couple of seconds to Pogačar in time bonuses, but the opening weekend still had the feel of a statement of intent from the Dane and his team.

Prior to the Tour, Vingegaard outlined that he had worked to build muscle in 2025, recalling how he had lost a lot of mass in the run-up to last year’s race following his crash at Itzulia Basque Country. The idea, it seemed, as to build power in order to match Pogačar’s accelerations.

The verdict from the Critérium du Dauphiné was a mixed one. Vingegaard was the surprise aggressor on the opening stage – foreshadowing his approach to this Tour – but then he was scorched by Pogačar’s accelerations two days running in the mountains, first at Combloux and then at Valmeiner 2000.

Then again, those sobering defeats probably only heightened Vingegaard and Visma’s resolve to see if they could make the difference during this Tour’s explosive opening ten days rather than risk waiting for the high mountains. 

During the pre-race press conference, Vingegaard’s teammate Matteo Jorgenson noted how the squad was a “Classics team with some climbers,” and it was notable that Wout van Aert, Tiesj Benoot and Victor Campenaerts were all to the fore in setting the pace at key moments on stage 2.

And, like in the Spring, it was striking to see Visma | Lease a Bike repeatedly swarm to the front and set a fearsome pace on the approach to corners, climbs and any other kind of pinch point on stage 2. They are racing the first week of this Tour in a Classics state of mind, in other words, Vingegaard included.

“The main goal is to test our opponents every day of course, and we needed a very hard pace on the climbs because we knew it was more in the favour of Jonas to tire out riders like Van der Poel and Pogačar,” directeur sportif Grischa Niermann said. “That’s why we tried and of course we hoped also Wout [van Aert] would be there to contest the sprint. This was a very explosive stage and Jonas managed it very well. We hope his shape and his explosiveness is better than it was in the Dauphiné.”

Pogačar, of course, was well able to resist Vingegaard and Visma’s forcing here, as was his UAE Team Emirates-XRG squad, with Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narvaez to the fore in the finale on his behalf. Pogačar being Pogačar, of course, he seemed to enjoy the contest. “It was really amazing,” he smiled afterwards. “There was everything – rain, stress, hectic, danger, short climbs. Just like a Classic stage.” Still, that won’t dissuade Visma from trying again and again during the Tour’s opening week. 

When the parcours was presented last October, there were concerns that the Tour’s relatively late arrival in the high mountains might lead to the kind of opening half ennui that marked much of the Jean-Marie Leblanc era, where uninspired routes were the norm.

On the evidence of the opening weekend and Vingegaard’s attitude, this opening half of this Tour could be many things – but it won’t be boring.