Vuelta a España stage 16 preview - Vingegaard-Almeida duel resumes in Galicia

Key Information

• Date: Tuesday, 9 September
• Start: 13:05 (CET)
• Expected Finish: 17:17 (CET)
• Stage type: Medium Mountain
• Stage length: 167.9km
• Elevation gain: 3,472m

Poio hosts the start of the third and final week of the 2025 Vuelta, where the battle for the red jersey will be concluded.

The stage begins by the coast and takes the peloton across rolling terrain for the first 70km, though there is no categorised climbing despite the hills.

That changes with the Alto de San Antoñino, a category 3 test that stands at 8.9km in length with an average gradient of 4.1%, with the most difficult section at the base.

For the riders, the San Antoñino climb is the softest categorised climb of the stage, but is shortly followed by the toughest, the category 1 Alto da Groba.

Nicolas Roche punched to victory on the second stage of the 2013 Vuelta that finished on the climb, in what was a standout race for the Irishman, who finished fifth overall and wore the red jersey. 

The steepest section is a third of the way up with gradients reaching above 10%, and the final part is also difficult, reaching similar gradients.

At the summit with 58.1km remaining, the riders will tackle the descent, which is in steps, with some climbing in the middle, before another uncategorised drag towards the intermediate sprint in Couso.

From Couso, the riders will soon arrive at the foot of the penultimate climb, the Alto de Prado. Incidentally, the final two climbs are the same which were used on stage 20 in the 2021 edition, which turned out to be a thrilling race. Clément Champoussin won, having first been in the breakaway, then was caught by the GC contenders in the finale, before the Frenchman attacked once more to take his first professional win.

The stage will be decided on the slopes of the Castro de Herville climb, where it will be difficult to find a rhythm on the inconsistent slopes.

There will be plenty of opportunities to attack on the climb, with the lower slopes difficult with pitches up to 16%. 

The final few hundred metres are also steep, reaching 12%, meaning that differences can be made right until the finish line. 

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) knows the task at hand with a week until Madrid. With two stage wins in the pocket and the red jersey on his shoulders, Vingegaard is in the driving seat, but will remain vigilant with an impressive João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) lurking at an uncomfortable distance.

In terms of stage 16, Vingegaard stands a great chance of a stage win if it's available, but it looks like a difficult stage to control, and with tougher tests to come, will Visma | Lease a Bike save their domestiques? Regardless, Vingegaard will have happy memories from racing in Galicia over the years, winning the GC at O Gran Camino in 2022 and 2023. 

João Almeida has had an excellent Vuelta to date. Considering the Portuguese rider hadn’t raced since abandoning the Tour de France, Almeida has returned to racing with a bang, and to be within a minute of Vingegaard heading into the third week is a very positive sign. Another positive is the stage win that Almeida took on the Angliru, illustrating his ability to compete for further victories in this Vuelta and add to his UAE team’s staggering tally.

Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) is another rider who has thrived so far and currently occupies the third and final podium spot. Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) has closed the gap to the Brit in the second week, but Pidcock should be better suited to the terrain on stage 16 compared to the Angliru. 

Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) is currently on track to match his 5th place from the Tour de France, occupying the same position at this Vuelta. The Austrian is still firmly in the podium hunt, less than a minute from Pidcock, but may wait until stages 17 and 20 to try and make his mark.

Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech) continues a fine breakout Vuelta, with the young American sitting in 7th, sandwiched by Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), who are strong cards for their respective teams to play with Vingegaard and Hindley above in GC.

Junior Lecerf (Soudal-QuickStep) and Torstein Træen (Bahrain-Victorious) currently occupy the final two spots in the top 10, something not many would have predicted heading into week three. Both however, have a strong advantage over the riders behind with only Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike) within five minutes, meaning with each solid performance, their chances of remaining there will only increase.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG have dominated the stage tallies in this edition, but with the battle for the GC coming closer to the climax, will we start to see a more restricted role from the likes of Jay Vine, Juan Ayuso, and Marc Soler? The last weekend didn’t seem to indicate so with Soler powering to victory on La Farrapona, whilst Jay Vine spent the majority of stage 15 in tandem with Louis Vervaeke (Soudal-QuickStep) at the front of the race. If any of these riders make the breakaway and it goes to the finish, it's likely that the winner will be a UAE rider.

After a pretty anonymous first week, there are positive signs to take from Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla) in week two. The Irishman featured in the breakaway on stage 12 and ended 15th. However, more impressive was his performance on stage 15, where he made the crucial split from a 47-man breakaway and was combative in the finale, ending fifth in the sprint behind Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). Dunbar got stronger as the race went on twelve months ago, and could be on a similar trajectory this time also. 

Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious) is another rider who has been heading in the right direction during the second week. The Colombian has featured in the breakaway three times in the last five stages, like Dunbar made the key split on Sunday, ending one place better in fourth. Bahrain-Victorious should have cards to play with British rider Finlay Pickering impressing on Grand Tour debut. Antonio Tiberi also showed positive signs in week two, despite some bad luck, meaning the Italian could be one to watch.

Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Mikel Landa (Soudal-QuickStep), and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) have all fallen out of the GC picture at various stages of the race, but all have been battling on, featuring in breakaways, and if any can find a return to form, can’t be ruled out on a climbing stage of this level.

Movistar have yet to land a stage at their home Grand Tour, and with time running out, they still have options, with Javier Romo, Pablo Castrillo, and Jefferson Cepeda. Movistar’s last stage win at the race was back in 2021 with Miguel Angel Lopez.

XDS Astana’s Harold Tejada has been one of the unsung heroes on the race so far, as the Colombian often is. Tejada has featured in multiple breakaways and currently sits 12th in GC, however, at 11:48 behind the race leader, Vingegaard, he could potentially be allowed into a breakaway. Lorenzo Fortunato, Harold Martin López and Wout Poels could all come into the mix on a stage like this, also.

Other riders to watch out for include: Carlos Verona (Lidl-Trek), Gianmarco Garafoli (Soudal-QuickStep), Bob Jungels (Ineos Grenadiers), James Shaw and Markel Beloki (EF Education-EasyPost), Johannes Staune-Mittet and Bruno Armirail (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Damien Howson (Q36.5), Brieuc Rolland (Groupama-FDJ), Abel Balderstone (Caja Rural-Seguros-RGA), Jesús Herrada (Cofidis), Kevin Vermaerke and Gijs Leemreize (Picnic PostNL), Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech), and Sergio Chumil (Burgos Burpellet BH).

Vuelta a España stage 16 favourites

⭐️⭐️⭐️ Juan Ayuso
⭐️⭐️ Eddie Dunbar, Jay Vine, Santiago Buitrago
⭐️ Jonas Vingegaard, João Almeida, Tom Pidcock, Jai Hindley, Antonio Tiberi, Egan Bernal, Javier Romo, Harold Tejada, Marc Soler, Kevin Vermaerke

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