What does the Giro d’Italia Women tell us about who can win the Tour de France Femmes?

The 36th edition of the Giro d'Italia Women was an exciting one, Elisa Longo Borghini’s (UAE Team ADQ) daring mountain raid producing a worthy winner. That move saw her take the overall lead from Marlen Reusser (Movistar), whose 16-second advantage from the opening day time trial was, until then, the only difference between the two.

In addition to Reusser’s TT, the race produced four other stage winners. Lorena Wiebes (SD Worx-Protime) won two sprints, Liane Lippert (Movistar) two punchy stages and Anna Henderson (Lidl-Trek) a breakaway. Perhaps the revelation of the race was Australian, Sarah Gigante (AG Insurance-Soudal), who won the two most challenging mountain stages.

But how does all this affect the Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift?

Gigante underwent an impressive development through the Giro. Her positioning and descending, questioned during the week, improved noticeably as the race progressed. Her punch on the climbs allowed her to attack in a way few others could counter, and if she continues to improve, she can certainly impact the Tour de France, though her presence at this year’s race is as yet unconfirmed. 

Longo Borghini will be on the start line in Vannes, but can she convert the form which earned her a second consecutive maglia rosa into yellow jersey success? It’s possible, but unlikely she’ll win overall, though a podium is within her grasp.

She’s undoubtedly flying, but her win will have taken a considerable emotional energy; she’s an incredibly passionate Italian for whom the Giro is the pinnacle, something likely to have added a few watts on Monte Nerone on Saturday. And the daring mountain raid on stage seven, which gained her the overall lead, was such a one-off of audacious derring-do it’s unlikely to be repeated. Surely no one would let her do that again?

Reusser was distraught when she slipped out of the pink jersey that day, but that will only spur her on. After a 2024 season blighted by injury and illness, she returned this year with a new team and stronger than ever.

She and Longo Borghini were incredibly well matched last week, though perhaps the Italian had the edge in the mountains, and we will never know whether Reusser was unable to respond when Longo Borghini made the race-winning move, or whether she and the team failed to realise the jeopardy. 

Whatever, Reusser is a class act, and no one should forget how she beat former teammate Demi Vollering (FDJ-SUEZ) in the Tour de Suisse. But she’s been in career-best form since the Vuelta at the start of May, and holding that will be tough.

Of those at the Giro, the SD Worx-Protime pair of Anna van der Breggen and Lotte Kopecky were the most disappointing. World Champion Kopecky was apparently using the race as preparation for a tilt at the Tour yellow jersey, but abandoned before stage six, suffering back pain when climbing.

Van der Breggen seemed a shadow of the rider she was before retiring in 2021, unable to race to increases in pace on the climbs, though her exceptional racecraft remains. More worryingly for the Dutch squad, Van der Breggen seems not to have improved since finishing third overall at the Vuelta Femenina in May.

Luckily, the team have Lorena Wiebes for stage wins. Almost ridiculously, the European champion is unbeaten on a sprint stage this year, and she can be expected to repeat her two Giro stage wins in France.

The unknown quantity is the 2023 Tour winner, Demi Vollering. She’s not raced the Giro since finishing third in 2021, and while her FDJ-SUEZ teammates failed to trouble the GC top 10 in Italy, they will surely do so in France, and despite her absence last week, Vollering remains the strong favourite.