Pogacar vs. Vingegaard: four years of rest day gaps compared

In 2021, Pogačar led the GC with a commanding 5:32 over Vingegaard at the first rest day, who was stepping into leadership after Roglič’s exit. The Slovenian’s dominant time gap was never significantly dented, and he cruised to Paris.

2022 was slightly different in the sense that there was a rest day after stage 3, so the race could transition back to France after the Grand Depart in Denmark, but at the first traditional rest day after stage 9, the gap stood at 0:39 - Pogačar in yellow, Vingegaard in second. The margin came largely from bonus seconds picked up by Pogačar at stage finishes, and a small loss on the cobbled stage 5, where Vingegaard was forced to chase after a mechanical. But that margin didn’t last. On stage 11 to the Col du Granon, Vingegaard flipped the race on its head, taking minutes and the maillot jaune. From that moment on, he held the upper hand over Pogačar, defending yellow with control and composure all the way to Paris to claim his first Tour title.

In 2023, the rivalry hit peak tension. Vingegaard led by just 17 seconds at the first rest day, with the two inseparable throughout the opening week. He struck a major blow on stage 5, putting more than a minute into Pogačar. The next day, Jumbo-Visma went all in again on the road to Laruns, but this time Pogačar hit back with a perfectly timed counter, halving his deficit. In the days that followed, the Slovenian continued to claw back seconds, suggesting momentum had shifted. But Vingegaard responded with authority in the final week, delivering a crushing time trial and dominant mountain performance. The result: a staggering 7:29 winning margin - unthinkable just days earlier. In hindsight, Pogačar’s uneven form was perhaps no surprise, given his disrupted preparation following a fractured wrist sustained at Liège–Bastogne–Liège.

A year later, the roles were reversed. The 2024 edition saw Pogačar take control early, building a 1:15 lead by the first rest day and never relinquishing it. This time, it was Vingegaard who arrived in France on the back foot, still regaining top form after a horror crash in the Tour of the Basque Country. While he fought gamely, the Dane never found the legs to challenge Pogačar’s dominance. The Slovenian added a third Tour title with a commanding ride and a six-minute GC buffer.

This year, the gap stands at 1:17 in Pogačar’s favour at the first rest day, built through a 1:05 advantage in the stage 5 time trial - the result of an uncharacteristic off-day for Vingegaard - and 12 seconds gained in bonification. At the same time, there are signs that Vingegaard may be more explosive than ever. He has been able to follow Pogačar’s trademark accelerations without faltering. The big question now is what that means for the battles still to come in the high mountains.

Right now, the upper hand belongs to Pogačar. The 1:17 gap may not be decisive, but history is on his side: in the last four editions, the rider leading in this rivalry at the first rest day has gone on to win three times. More importantly, since 2024, Pogačar has looked not just brilliant, but consistently in command. If that version holds, Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike will need something extraordinary to rewrite this Tour and defy the pattern of the past.