Signing Oscar Onley would give Ineos a narrative again

There was a time when Ineos Grenadiers seemed able to find a new leader for the Tour de France just as easily as the BBC could recast the lead in Doctor Who. It didn’t really matter who inhabited the role – Bradley Wiggins or Chris Froome, Geraint Thomas or Egan Bernal – because each regeneration seemed to bring the same guarantee of success in July.

The old certainties have faded in the 2020s, however, and each winter Ineos find themselves in the familiar position of attempting to woo a star from elsewhere in a bid to reboot an ailing franchise. 

For much of the past three years, Remco Evenepoel had been the object of their attentions, though by the time the Belgian eventually signed for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe last summer, Ineos had long since dropped out of the running.

Ineos’ last overall victory dates back to Bernal in 2019 and their last podium finish was delivered by Geraint Thomas in 2022. This past July, their highest finisher was Thymen Arensman, 12th overall and over 50 minutes down on Tadej Pogacar, and David Rozman’s presence on the Tour probably generated more headlines than the Dutchman's two stage wins.  

Even now, Bernal remains Ineos’ best Grand Tour rider despite the fact that he has spent the past three years fighting his way back from the life-altering crash he suffered in January 2022. In the intervening period, Ineos have repeatedly tried and failed to sign a replacement, while hoping Carlos Rodriguez can plug the gap in the meantime.

Earlier this year, Ineos were linked with a possible move for Derek Gee if the Canadian succeeds in extricating himself from his contract with Israel-Premier Tech, but an even more intriguing possibility has emerged in recent days.

On Thursday, Daniel Benson reported on his Substack that Ineos are attempting to prise Oscar Onley away from Picnic-PostNL ahead of the 2026 season. The Scot still has two years to run on his contract and it’s by no means a given that Picnic-PostNL would even entertain the prospect of parting with a youngster who placed fourth overall at the Tour.

Picnic-PostNL are certainly under no immediate pressure to do so after securing WorldTour status for the next three years. Even if Onley were keen on a move, his team could still play hardball and hold out for a hefty transfer fee. Indeed, they could even turn down Ineos’ overtures now and revisit the idea of a transfer next winter, given that Onley remains under contract through the end of 2027.

While Picnic-PostNL have no real compunction to sell right now, Ineos are in dire need of a figurehead for their entire project. The return of Dave Brailsford and Geraint Thomas in management roles has so far served only to underline how far off the pace the team has dropped at the Tour in the 2020s.

When the team was launched as Team Sky in 2010, there was a clear mission statement – win the Tour de France within five years with a British rider. As it turned out, they managed it in their third season with Wiggins, then repeated the dose four times with Froome and once more with Thomas.

They won one more Tour, with Bernal, after Sky departed midway through 2019, but the arrival of Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos millions has coincided with a drop in the team’s July performance and a gradual blurring of its initial identity.

In recent years, Ineos have no longer had a coherent ‘narrative’ to sell to the British public – or, perhaps more importantly, to their Brexit-backing billionaire owner. 

The loss of Tom Pidcock last winter felt indicative of their drift, and one wondered how long Ratcliffe – now sinking millions into Manchester United – would keep signing off on the cheques to keep the cycling team in business. UAE may have superseded Ineos as the biggest budget team in cycling, but Ratcliffe’s investment is still a considerable one and the return has been dwindling in recent seasons.

In that light, it’s easy to see the appeal of signing Onley, and not only because the three men who finished ahead of him at the 2025 Tour – Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Florian Lipowitz – are all tied down to long-term deals elsewhere.

At 23 years of age, Onley surely has considerable margin for improvement, though it’s worth underlining that he is still a long, long way off competing with Pogacar et al at the top table. As impressive as Onley was during the 2025 Tour, he still reached Paris more than 12 minutes down on Pogacar and eight down on Vingegaard, and there is little sign of anybody breaking their dominance in the immediate future. With no end in sight to their habitual dominance in July, a podium finish would surely be the summit of Onley’s ambition on the 2026 Tour.

Signing Onley, therefore, wouldn’t instantly put Ineos in contention to win the Tour, but it would help restore a little of their relevance in July. Above all, Onley would give them things they have been lacking for at least three years – an obvious focal point to build around and a clear project to appease their benefactor.

Ineos’ interest in signing Onley is entirely logical, but there is no guarantee their overtures will be successful this winter. It’s a seller’s market and Picnic-PostNL are fully aware of Onley’s value.