Vuelta a España stage 11 preview - Fireworks in Bilbao?

Key Information: 

• Date: Wednesday, 3 September
• Start: 13:30 (CET)
• Expected finish: 17:20 (CET)
• Stage type: Medium Mountains
• Stage length: 157.4km
• Elevation gain: 3,185m

This looks to be an exciting stage capable of producing fireworks.

Bilbao has hosted the start and finish of the same stage for consecutive stages during the four editions that have visited it since 2011. Marc Soler was the last Vuelta stage winner in Bilbao in 2022, and before that was Philippe Gilbert in a punchy finish back in 2019.

Roll back to the 2023 Tour de France Grand Départ in the Basque Country, and you'll find plenty of similarities to the opening stage won by Adam Yates ahead of his brother Simon, with some of the same climbs featuring. In total, there are seven categorised climbs, ascents which mainly stand out for the steepness rather than length.

The punchy nature of these climbs and their positioning throughout the stage should lend itself to aggressive racing. 

It's a tough start from the get-go with the riders instantly climbing the Alto de Laukiz, a 3.9km climb that averages 4.7%. Expect plenty of opportunistic attacks on a stage that has a strong possibility of being for the breakaway.

If the breakaway takes a while to form, the Alto de Sollube could be a useful launchpad coming around 20km into the stage, standing at 7.2km in length with an average gradient of 4.2%.

The Balcón de Bizkaia, 4.3km at 5.4% and the Alto de Morga, 8.2km at 3.5% sit in the middle portion of the stage, and both category 3 climbs are unlikely to have the biggest impact on the stage with what is to come.

Awaiting the peloton are two ascents of the Alto del Vivero, where the tension should be starting to reach boiling point. The climb is 4.2km long at a steep average gradient of 8.4% and will be crested with 53km and 24.1km respectively.

This leads in anticipation towards the final climb of the day, where things can change quickly.

The Alto de Pike is an intriguing prospect, and something that Jonas Vingegaard knows all about, as he and Tadej Pogačar surged clear alongside surprise package Victor Lafay in that opening Tour stage in 2023.

2.3km at 8.9% is more than enough to land a knockout punch, and there are plenty of riders showing positive signs that they are capable of giving it a go.

From the summit of the Pike, only 7.8km remaining and with a downhill run-in and fast finish to Bilbao, it's possible that a solo rider atop the climb could ride clear to victory.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike) is back in the red jersey after Torstein Træen's (Bahrain-Victorious) impressive stint as race leader. As per, Vingegaard looked comfortable as the GC group whittled in size and looks to be gearing towards the major mountain tests on stages 13 and 14. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike) has been growing nicely into the race, and once more should be able to control things in the finale and set a tempo if Vingegaard wants to attack on the Pike climb.

João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) once more was willing to force the initiative on stage 10, and although the Portuguese rider wasn't able to go clear, he has shown that he is going to keep trying to put pressure on the clear race favourite in Vingegaard.

Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) has been growing in form and confidence, and has expanded on this good feeling with two particularly impressive performances on stages 9 and 10. It has got to the point that, with the exception of Træen, who is expected to slip further in the GC in the coming days, Pidcock is building an advantage as the de facto 3rd place on the podium. 

The punchy Pike climb should also suit Pidcock, as should the descent to the finish. With the way he is currently riding, Pidcock may be hoping that the GC group is able to fight for the stage win, as his chances of a stage win are increasing by the day.

Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) bounced back from losing time on stage 9 to finish with the main GC group on Tuesday. The Italian knows what it takes to thrive in the punchy terrain like tomorrow's stage in Bilbao, having won the Donostia San Sebastian Klasikoa at the start of August.

Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) have been working well as a duo and are effectively going about the business in a coy manner, sitting 8th and 9th in GC.

Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) lost some time on stage 10, and on paper, isn't the best suited to the punchy climbs of Bilbao, meaning that the Austrian will be looking to get through the day without any more time loss before his favourable terrain of the major mountains on stage 13 and 14.

Colombian champion Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) shipped some time on stage 10, and will be aiming to dust himself off and go again strong. At his expense, the increasingly impressive Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech) leapfrogged him into 10th place on GC.

There's something special about the relationship between Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and the Vuelta a España. The Aussie landed his 4th stage win at the race, and 2nd of this edition, and like all the ones that came before, he did so in emphatic fashion.

Perhaps the mountains classification leader will give himself a day to recover and wait for the major mountain stages before trying his hand again, but as he keeps proving, he is the man to beat in breakaways at this year's race.

Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) has been under the spotlight throughout this Vuelta, and already has a stage win to his name. However, with the announcement that the 22-year-old and UAE Team Emirates-XRG will cut ties early at the end of 2025, the microscope has only intensified. Ayuso wasn't on the attack on stage 10, instead playing a support role to Almeida, but it remains to be seen what his ambitions are for the coming days, and thus can't be ruled out. Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) is the last winner in Bilbao, and if UAE look to place a rider in the breakaway for this hilly stage, they could do a lot worse than let the combative 31-year-old off the leash.

Stage 10 was a promising showing for Movistar, who had plenty of riders feature in the breakaway, resulting in 2nd place for Pablo Castrillo and 3rd for Javier Romo. Both will be featuring at further points throughout the race as they edge closer towards a stage win.

Other riders to watch out for include Victor Langellotti and Michal Kwiatkowski (Ineos), Harold Martin López and Harold Tejada (XDS Astana), Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech), Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla), Archie Ryan (EF Education-EasyPost), Junior Lecerf (Soudal-QuickStep), Kevin Vermaerke (Picnic PostNL), Fabio Christen (Q36.5), Andrea Bagioli (Lidl Trek), Santiago Buitrago and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain-Victorious).

Vuelta a España stage 11 favourites

⭐️⭐️⭐️ Jonas Vingegaard 
⭐️⭐️ Tom Pidcock, Giulio Ciccone, João Almeida
⭐️ Jay Vine, Marc Soler, David Gaudu, Junior Lecerf, Santiago Buitrago, Matteo Jorgenson

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