2026 Strade Bianche preview - Can Pogacar be stopped at his season debut?

In the early chapters of this race, the winners tended to be riders with a strong classics profile. As the route evolved, the balance gradually shifted toward more climbing focused athletes, a trend reflected in Tadej Pogačar’s three wins. For 2026, the organisers have adjusted the layout again, dialing back the difficulty compared with the 2025 edition.

Last season, Tom Pidcock became the spark for much of the pre race discussion. When he lifted the pace, Pogačar reacted immediately and the two moved up the road. They made contact with the front of the race quickly, but the situation remained unstable and the group never fully settled. A fresh acceleration later on, with a little over fifty kilometres remaining, reduced the contenders even further, with only Connor Swift able to stay attached.

Not long after Monteaperti, Pogačar took a pull at the head of the group and then suddenly hit trouble, sliding off the road and going down. He emerged with visible scrapes yet managed to remount and continue, limiting the damage.

Pidcock avoided the incident and chose to commit to an attack on his own. Swift, caught behind the crash, lost momentum and could not follow. When Pogačar began closing the gap, Pidcock opted not to gamble on a long solo effort and waited for him to return. The decisive moment came on one of the final sectors, where Pogačar put in his last move and immediately created separation. 

By the time the race reached the concluding gravel section, his advantage had grown to more than a minute. From there he controlled the run in and finished alone in Siena.

There are set to be five former winners on the start list:

• Tadej Pogacar - 2025, 2024, 2022
• Tom Pidcock - 2023
• Wout van Aert - 2020
• Julian Alaphilippe - 2019

Key information: 

• Date - Saturday, March 7
• Distance - 202,6 km
• Start Location - Fortezza Medicea (Medici Fortress), Siena
• Finish Location - Piazza del Campo, Sienna
• Start time (CET) - 11:40
• Expected finish (CET) - 16:28 (fastest time schedule)

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Strade Bianche will be shorter in 2026, with fewer gravel kilometres, but the decisive finale is unchanged.

The race is set at over 202 kilometres with around 3,500 metres of climbing. Total gravel drops to 64.1 kilometres across 14 sectors, down from more than 80 kilometres last year. 

Most of the changes are concentrated in the first half of the day. The organisers have removed the La Piana and Seravalle sectors, and the opening Vidritta sector has been reduced from 4.4 kilometres to 2.4. The intention is a less punishing middle phase, before the race reaches the sectors that usually decide the outcome.

From there, the key sequence remains in place. San Martino in Grania (9.4 km) and Monte Sante Marie (11.5 km) are still on the route, with Monte Sante Marie again positioned well before the finish. In recent editions it has been the sector where the race breaks open, not only because of the length and uneven gradients, but also because gaps can form quickly through positioning, punctures and splits.

The closing circuit in the Siena area is largely unchanged and again includes two passages of Colle Pinzuto (2.4 km) and Le Tolfe (1.1 km). Colle Pinzuto features ramps up to 15 percent, while Le Tolfe reaches around 18 percent. After the second time over Le Tolfe, the route heads into Siena for the traditional finish on Piazza del Campo, via the steep Via Santa Caterina.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) is the obvious top favourite, as he is in almost every race he starts. The big questions are how sharp he will be in his first outing of the season and whether anyone can actually beat him.

There is also an intriguing UAE scenario. If Isaac del Toro is strong enough to follow, could he end up taking the win instead of Pogačar, given how well they get along? Pogačar already has three Strade Bianche wins on his palmarès, and he handed the GP Montréal victory to Brandon McNulty last year. If the situation presents itself, it is not impossible. Jan Christen is another major asset for UAE here. A full UAE podium is a stretch, but not unthinkable.

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) will be ready to pounce if there is an opening. He has an excellent record at Strade, winning in 2023 with INEOS Grenadiers and finishing runner up behind Pogačar last year. He looked brilliant early in 2026, but the cold caught up with him at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. The question is whether he can bounce back here.

Ben Healy and Richard Carapaz form a strong duo for EF Education-EasyPost. Both have shown they can deliver in the hardest one day races. 

Healy did not look at his best during the French opening weekend, but that was also true last year, and he still finished fourth at Strade. He is the kind of rider who understands his body extremely well and can time his peak better than almost anyone. 

Carapaz started his season at Trofeo Laigueglia and did not look in top form, but consistency has never been his defining trait. With him, you never fully rule anything out.

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM Team) is adjusting to the pro level remarkably fast. Straight out of the juniors, he already podiumed the elite European Championships road race last year. 

This season he has started even better, with a win on the Fóia stage at the Volta ao Algarve and another victory in the Faun Ardèche Classic a week later. In that race he climbed the Saint Romain de Lerps ascent at a pace comparable to what Pogačar produced at last year’s European Championships road race, then set the fastest ever time on the descent, which matters on a technical race like Strade Bianche. 

Was last week a preview of what is coming, or is Pogačar still a level above?

Matteo Jorgenson (Team Visma | Lease a Bike) also started strongly during the French opening weekend, finishing fourth and then second. He can carry that momentum into Strade and looks like Team Visma | Lease a Bike’s main card.

Wout van Aert was ill before Le Samyn and the updated Strade course arguably suits him less, but he remains a valuable piece. Strade and Tirreno-Adriatico should be ideal steps toward Milan-San Remo.

Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) still has to prove himself in one day racing, but he is a fascinating prospect for this parcours. He has shown a huge engine repeatedly, and in all three Grand Tours he has ridden, week three was his best week, which is rare, especially at his age. Add elite bike handling and real descending ability and he becomes a serious wild card. 

Together with Gianni Vermeersch, he gives the team a well balanced duo, with Vermeersch’s cyclocross handling a clear advantage on the gravel.

Pello Bilbao (Bahrain - Victorious) has a superb Strade record: four starts, four top ten finishes. He opened his season in strong form and is one of the peloton’s best handlers. 

And speaking of handling, Matej Mohoric looks like he is finding his old level again. Everyone remembers that fearless Poggio descent to win Milan San Remo, and Strade is another race where that skill can matter.

Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility) loves this race. He finally seems free of his knee issues, making him an exciting name to watch, especially given how much upside he still has. Andreas Kron is another compelling Uno-X option. His back problems have held him back, but he looked refreshed at the Tour Down Under, and that early season racing can be a real advantage for Strade.

Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ United) may not love the tougher modern course as much as the old route, which suited his explosive punch. His best result, eighth in his first pro year, came on the old course, and that was no coincidence. Still, he is getting older and stronger, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts. 

Valentin Madouas fits the harder version better. Runner up in 2023 behind Pidcock, he tends to thrive as the race gets tougher, and he has a huge engine.

Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Intermaché) seems to be edging back toward his best after last year’s setbacks. His season began with another crash at the Tour Down Under, but he bounced back with a podium on the brutally hard Jebel Mabhrah stage, even if he could not repeat it on Jebel Hafeet. He was eleventh here in 2024 after riding for Maxim Van Gils and ninth in 2025. The question is whether he can take another step.

Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek) might love this kind of racing more than anyone, and he has gone well here repeatedly, often with bad luck ruining his day. He may have preferred the old course too, but after podiuming GP Montréal and riding to fourth at Il Lombardia from the early break last year, he has proved he can handle extreme efforts. A clean run could finally bring a big Strade result. 

He also has an intriguing teammate in Albert Withen Philipsen. The young talent is highly motivated for Strade, and last year he still impressed despite spending a lot of energy and puncturing at a terrible moment. He started this season poorly at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, largely because he was caught out by the cold, so this should be a better test.

Andrea Bagioli is another interesting name on the startlist, though in recent years he has seemed to lack the volume to truly excel in races like this. Strade could be a chance to show he has turned that corner.

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️  Pogacar

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️  Del Toro, Seixas

⭐️⭐️⭐️ Pidcock, Christen, Jorgenson

⭐️⭐️  Van Eetvelt, Healy, Gregoire, Johannessen

⭐️  Bilbao, Simmons, Pellizzari, Mohoric, Van Aert

Riders to watch: Kron, G. Vermeersch, Madouas, Garofoli, Withen Philipsen, Verstrynge

The 2026 Strade Bianche in Siena is expected to take place in pleasant, sunny conditions, with a temperature around 18 degrees and only light winds (7km/h).