Five favourites for the polka dot jersey at the 2025 Tour de France

Richard Carapaz won the polka-dot jersey in the 2024 edition of the Tour, and coming into the Tour off a brilliant Giro d’Italia, in which he could have ended up winning the pink jersey (GC) if circumstances had gone his way. In 2024, Carapaz put on an absolute clinic of showmanship on the route to securing the polka dot jersey with wonderful attacking cycling by Carapaz. 

Carapaz recently stated in an interview with the Italian media that he will be going stage hunting and not focusing on the general classification, which is only a bigger advantage for Carapaz in a bid to retain the polka dot jersey in the 2025 Tour.

The 27-year-old Austrian, similar to Carapaz, will love the treacherous terrain of the third week, especially Stage 18 on the Col de la Loze. His maiden Tour de France stage victory came on stage 17 of the 2023 Tour, where the Col de la Loze featured as the final climb on the stage with a small descent to the finish. It remains to be seen if Gall can recreate his heroics from that stage as the GC protagonists could end up producing thermonuclear numbers, the likes we have never seen in cycling before. To win the polka dot jersey, Gall has got to obtain a strong stage hunting mindset and pick up the king of the mountain (KOM) points that way, especially on the HC summit finishes.

Oscar Onley, so far in the 2025 season, has been displaying tremendous climbing ability, whilst also packing quite the punch in uphill sprints. This was recently seen at the Tour de Suisse, where Onley beat João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) on stage 5. That pacey punch would be a key asset for Onley to pick up numerous KOM points on climbs throughout stages, which eventually will all tally up. As Team Picnic PostNL are in a dangerous situation regarding relegation from the UCI WorldTour, the 210 UCI points that are on offer for winning the polka dot jersey would provide help to Team Picnic PostNL in their bid to avoid relegation. Hence why we could see a situation very similar to Lorenzo Fortunato in the 2025 Giro d’Italia with Oscar Onley in the Tour this July.

After an injury affected the start of his 2025 season, Remco Evenepoel comes into the Tour off the back of a Critérium du Dauphiné, where it was evident just how far behind his shape was to both Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates – XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike). Could we see a repeat of Evenepoel’s 2023 La Vuelta a España, where he dropped out of the GC equation and went stage hunting, winning the polka dot jersey in the process, perhaps. It would be a sight for cycling fans around the globe to see, Evenepoel demonstrating his wonderful attacking prowess to pick up stage wins and the polka dot jersey, if he is unable to compete for the upper hierarchy of the general classification.

The man on a mission to become the best ever male professional cyclist, Tadej Pogacar, is undeniably one of the big favourites to win the polka dot jersey come July, simply because of the amount of mountain classification points he may pick up from winning stages. He would add to his two previous polka dot jerseys at the Tour, where he won two in a row in the 2020 and 2021 editions of the Tour. With the nature of the route very much GC centred to the back end of the 2nd week all the way to stage 21, and a lack of high category climbs in the time before that, the rider who will be in the polka dot jersey is going to have a difficult time defending it from riders like Pogacar. 

The conclusion? The 2025 Tour de France polka dot jersey will be won by Tadej Pogacar as he continues his mind-blowing form.

Want to get up to speed on all classifications? Check out our other previews of the key favourites:

• General classification: who are the top contenders for the yellow jersey?
• Points classification: can Girmay continue his success of last year?
• Youth classification: will Evenepoel be threatened?