Giro d’Italia Stage 15 preview: Can Jonathan Milan end his drought in Milan?

For Jonathan Milan, it is also a day loaded with symbolism. Can the Italian finally take his first stage win of this Giro in the city that carries his name?

Besides the classic final stage in and around Rome, this is the last flat stage of the race. On paper, it should be one for the sprinters, but deep into the second week of a Grand Tour, nothing is ever quite that simple. Fatigue, ambition and a potentially nervous city circuit could still open the door for late attackers.

Key information:

• Start: 13:55 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:20 (CET)
• Stage type: flat 
• Stage length: 157km
• Elevation gain: 266m

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There is not a great deal to analyse from a route perspective. The stage is almost entirely flat and should be relatively easy to control, at least in theory.

The most important section comes in the final kilometres. With 2km to go, the peloton faces a dangerous final corner. As it is the last real technical point before the line, the fight for position will be intense and potentially decisive.

After that, the riders hit a long, straight 2km run to the finish, with the stage set for a high speed sprint in the streets of Milan.

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 107,4km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 42.2km to go

On profile alone, this should be a sprint. The route is flat, the finishing straight is long and there are still several sprint teams chasing a stage win. That makes a bunch finish the most likely outcome.

Still, this is the final stage of the second week and the race has already taken a heavy toll. At this point in a Grand Tour, tired legs can change the logic of a race. Chases become less organised, domestiques are harder to rely on and the sprinters’ teams may not have the same control they would have enjoyed in the opening week.

That does not mean a breakaway victory is likely, but it is not impossible either. The Milan circuit could invite attacks, especially from teams without a realistic sprint option. If the break is strong, committed and given too much freedom, the peloton may have to work harder than expected.

Even so, with so many teams still looking towards their fast men, the balance clearly points towards a sprint.

Lidl-Trek will be desperate to finally deliver a stage win with Jonathan Milan. This is exactly the type of day that should suit the Italian: flat, fast and demanding enough to reward a sprinter with a huge engine. The deeper a Grand Tour goes, the more valuable that resilience becomes. Milan has come close, but this is one of his clearest remaining chances.

Paul Magnier of Soudal Quick-Step has shown that he belongs at this level. His speed is no longer in doubt, but sprinting this deep into a Grand Tour is a different test. If he still has the freshness, he has the quality to beat anyone here.

NSN also have a serious option in Ethan Vernon. He has the pure speed for a finish like this, although he too still has to prove that he can produce his best sprint after two hard weeks of racing. On paper, the stage suits him perfectly.

Unibet Rose Rockets will look to Dylan Groenewegen. The team has been competitive throughout the race but has not yet managed to make everything click in the final. A clean leadout and a well-timed launch could give Groenewegen a major opportunity, although the Rockets will have to do so without sprint coach Marcel Kittel, who has already left the Giro.

Madis Mihkels of EF Education-EasyPost is not a pure flat sprinter in the traditional sense, but that may actually help him at this point in the race. He could be fresher than some of the heavier sprinters, and without a full leadout train he has done an impressive job of positioning himself throughout the Giro.

Decathlon CMA CGM still have general classification ambitions with Felix Gall, but Tobias Lund Andresen gives them a strong sprint card to play. The Dane has not had much luck so far, which should only make him more motivated if the race comes down to a bunch finish.

Team Picnic PostNL have brought a sprint train for Casper van Uden. The Dutchman has the speed to compete, but positioning has been a recurring issue. If he can enter the final straight in the right place, he is fast enough to challenge for the win.

Matteo Malucelli of XDS Astana Team is one of the purest sprinters in the race, but he has not yet managed to make his mark in this Giro. A flat finish in Milan gives him another chance to change that.

Paul Penhoët of Groupama-FDJ United usually prefers a slightly rising sprint, but he positions himself well and has been close enough to remain a rider to watch. Pascal Ackermann of Jayco AlUla is harder to predict. His peak speed is still there on the right day, but his form has become more inconsistent. For him, this could be all or nothing.

Other sprint options include Jensen Plowright of Alpecin-Premier Tech and Giovanni Lonardi of Polti VisitMalta.

Some teams that could want to shake things up and avoid a sprint are:

• Bahrain-Victorious with Alec Segaert
• Groupama-FDJ United with Rémi Cavagna, Johan Jacobs, and Axel Huens
• Movistar with Lorenzo Milesi, Nelson Oliveira, and Iván García Cortina.
• Lotto Intermarché with Toon Aerts and Jonas Rutsch.
• UAE Team Emirates-XRG with all their riders (Igor Arrieta, Jhonatan Narváez, Jan Christen, António Morgado, and Mikkel Bjerg).
• UNO-X Mobility with Andreas Leknessund, Frederik Dversnes, and Markus Hoelgaard.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Milan

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Magnier, Vernon

⭐⭐⭐  Groenewegen, Lund Andresen, Mihkels

⭐⭐  Van Uden, Malucelli, Penhoët, Ackermann

⭐  Plowright, Lonardi, Segaert, Cavagna, Bjerg