Giro d’Italia stage 16 preview: Back into the mountains after the rest day

The day after a rest day is rarely straightforward in a Grand Tour, and this stage looks especially difficult to control. At just over 113 kilometres, there is little room for hesitation. 

The opening phase could be frantic, the middle section is packed with climbing, and the final ascent to Càri is hard enough to reshape the general classification.

Key information:

• Start: 14:00 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:15 (CET)
• Stage type: mountain
• Stage length: 113.35km
• Elevation gain: 2824m

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The stage begins with around 28 kilometres of false flat roads. 

On paper, that looks like a natural launchpad for the breakaway, but with so many riders likely interested in the move, the opening could become a long battle of attacks and counterattacks. There is a real chance that the peloton neutralises itself before the race reaches the more selective terrain.

The middle section is where the stage should properly ignite. The riders take on two laps of a hilly circuit featuring Torre and Leontica. Torre is a third category climb of 3.8 kilometres at 6.4 percent, while Leontica is shorter but steeper at 2.9 kilometres at 8.8 percent.

That combination comes twice, and once the second passage of Leontica is complete, only 36 kilometres remain before the final climb. That means the breakaway may not have much time to build a decisive advantage before the GC teams begin to position their leaders.

The finale is the main event. Càri is 11.7 kilometres at 7,9 percent, and even that number does not fully tell the story. There is a short flat section of around 500 metres in the middle, which means the climbing sections themselves are even more severe. 

The first 7.6 kilometres average 8.4 percent, while the final 3.3 kilometres also average 8.4 percent. The last 1.7 kilometres rise at 9.3 percent, making this a finish where the strongest climbers can create real gaps.

Key points

• Torre | 3rd category climb - 3.8km at 6.4% - 81km to go
• Leontica | 2nd category climb - 2.9km at 8.8% - 69.5km to go
• Torre | 3rd category climb - 3.8km at 6.4% - 59km tokm to go
• Leontica | 2nd category climb - 2.9km at 8.8% - 47.5km to go
• Intermediate sprint - 38.5km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 12.5km to go
• Cari | 1st category climb - 11.7km at 7,9% - 11.7km to go

This stage should attract plenty of breakaway interest. It comes directly after a rest day, it is short, and the route offers enough climbing for strong attackers to believe they have a chance.

That same interest could also make the stage difficult for a breakaway to settle. If the fight for the move goes deep into the stage, the attackers may end up doing the work for the GC teams. A long and aggressive opening would keep the race fast, limit the advantage of any move, and bring the favourites into play without one team needing to control everything from kilometre zero.

The middle section is likely to be raced hard. After the second passage of Leontica, the road towards Càri gives the GC teams enough time to organise, but not enough for a breakaway to build a race winning margin.

That makes a GC battle on the final climb the most likely scenario. If the gap is still within reach at the foot of Càri, the favourites should take over, turning the stage into another direct test between the overall contenders.

Visma | Lease a Bike may not need to control the stage all day for Jonas Vingegaard. The maglia rosa already has a commanding position, and his team will be wary of spending too much energy at the start of a brutal final week. But the shape of the stage could work in his favour anyway. 

If the breakaway fight is intense and the gap remains small, Visma may only need to ride the final approach and the climb itself.

Vingegaard remains the obvious reference point. He was dominant on the road to Pila, and Càri is another finish where his sustained climbing power can make the difference. It will also be another important test for Davide Piganzoli, who has become a key part of Visma’s mountain structure and now has to prove he can maintain that level deep into the third week.

Decathlon CMA CGM Team also have reason to be interested. Felix Gall is firmly involved in the podium battle, and the team already showed earlier in the race that it is willing to chase when the opportunity is there. The question is whether they will want to invest heavily again, especially with harder stages still to come.

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe could be another team tempted to take responsibility. Giulio Pellizzari and Jai Hindley both appear to be improving after a difficult start to the Giro, and this kind of short mountain stage offers them a chance to put pressure on their rivals. If they want to regain time, they cannot afford to wait forever.

For the breakaway, the task looks extremely difficult. Any rider hoping to win from the move will need to be strong enough to survive a hard opening, powerful enough to stay clear through the middle section, and still have the legs to climb Càri at GC pace. 

Giulio Ciccone looks like one of the few riders capable of doing that, although the chances of a breakaway making it all the way to the finish appear limited.

Lidl Trek have two cards to watch. Ciccone is a natural stage hunter on this terrain, while Derek Gee-West remains in the GC picture and tends to improve the deeper a Grand Tour goes. On Pila, he struggled in the heat. In this stage, we'll see similar temperatures, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles that. For Gee-West, Càri could be less about the stage win and more about moving up in the overall standings.

Thymen Arensman is another rider with a podium fight to protect and perhaps attack. Netcompany INEOS are unlikely to chase all day for him, but they could look for a more aggressive option. Egan Bernal is clearly growing into this Giro, so he could be a very handy card too.

Ben O’Connor is well positioned overall, although stage 19 may suit him much better than this explosive stage to Càri. Still, if the race opens up early, he has the experience and climbing engine to take advantage.

For Bahrain Victorious, the priority will be damage limitation. Afonso Eulálio remains in a strong position on GC, but the final week will test his resilience. Damiano Caruso could be crucial here. Few riders understand the third week of a Grand Tour better, and his presence may be vital if Eulálio comes under pressure on the final climb.

Tudor also have options with Michael Storer and Mathys Rondel. Both are steady climbers rather than explosive attackers, but that can be valuable on a demanding final ascent. They are close enough in the standings to matter, yet not so tightly marked that they cannot try something. For Rondel, it'll also be interesting to see how he handles the heat, as he also struggled with that on Pila.

David de la Cruz has quietly looked more like his old self during this Giro. Whether he attacks to improve his GC position or simply tries to survive as long as possible with the favourites, Càri should be another indication of how far he can go in this final week.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Vingegaard

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Gall, Pellizzari

⭐⭐⭐  Arensman, Hindley, Gee-West

⭐⭐  Storer, O'Connor, Piganzoli, Bernal

⭐  Ciccone, Eulálio, de la Cruz, Rondel, Caruso