Giro d'Italia stage 18 preview - Another breakaway win loading?

A flat start, a cluster of early climbs, a long middle section and a steep wall inside the final 10km. Stage 18 offers something for almost every type of attacker. The rouleurs will want to go early. The punchier riders will try to keep something back for the final sting.

Key information:

• Start: 13:30 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:15 (CET)
• Stage type: hilly
• Stage length: 168.75km
• Elevation gain: 1763m

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The stage begins with 20km of flat roads, which should make for a familiar opening. Plenty of riders will want to be in the break, but on terrain like this they may spend as much time cancelling each other out as actually getting clear.

Once the road starts to rise, the race should change quickly. The first climb is 4.3km at 6.5 percent, with a steep opening section of 1.1km at 9.5 percent. That is the first real chance for the stronger attackers to force a selection.

After a short descent and plateau, the riders face another small climb of 1.7km at 5.7 percent. A longer descent and another plateau then lead into a third rise, 1.8km at 4.3 percent. Taken together, that opening sequence should be a natural launchpad for the breakaway.

A flatter 45km section follows. There is another short climb in the middle of it, but with 83km still to race from the top, it is unlikely to shape the outcome.

The finale starts with 51.5km to go. First comes a 1.5km climb at 5.6 percent, the sort of place where riders who do not want to wait for the final wall may begin to move. A descent, valley road and rolling section follow before another climb of 2.1km at 5.4 percent. After that, there is a short descent and plateau, then another climb of 1.6km at 5.8 percent. At the top, 34.4km remain.

A longer descent gives the riders a chance to recover before 17km of rolling roads lead into the final obstacle: the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio. It is only 1km long, but at 12.5 percent, it is steep enough to decide the stage. The heavier riders will want to be away before it. The punchers will want the race still within reach.

From the top, only 9.2km of rolling terrain remain to the finish. Anyone dropped on the wall will have very little road left to get back.

Key points

• Fastro | 3rd category climb - 3.2km at 3.9% - 85.5km to go
• Intermediate sprint - 36.5km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 16.5km to go
• Muro Ca' Del Poggio | 4th category climb - 1km at 12.5% - 9.5km to go

This is another stage that looks very difficult to control. The flat opening may delay the break, but once the road begins to roll, the attacks should become harder to contain.

For the stage win, timing will matter as much as strength. The heavier riders and time triallists will likely try to anticipate before the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio. The punchier riders can afford to wait longer and use the steep gradients to make the difference.

That tension should define the finale. Go too early and the wall may still catch you. Wait too long and the best engines may already be gone.

When a stage points towards tactics, timing and a hard third week effort, Jasper Stuyven is an obvious name. The Soudal Quick-Step rider has already shown strong form in this Giro, and he knows how to race from a breakaway. He also has the engine to make a move stick deep into a grand tour. If Stuyven attacks before the Muro, the rest will have to react quickly.

Andrea Raccagni and Gianmarco Garofoli give Soudal Quick Step further options. Both can survive short climbs, with Garofoli particularly suited to this kind of terrain, and both have enough speed to matter if a reduced group reaches the finish.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG could approach the day with several cards, but Jhonatan Narváez again looks like their leading option. He has shown throughout this Giro that he can handle the tactics, the climbing and the sprint from a reduced group. Igor Arrieta is another danger, though he will probably need to win with a move rather than a sprint. 

Jan Christen has the talent, but a stage like this may ask a lot of his experience. For Mikkel Bjerg and António Morgado, the final wall may be a little sharp, but in a breakaway stage, nothing can be ruled out.

Andreas Leknessund has also looked strong in this Giro. The Uno-X Mobility rider is more likely to anticipate than wait for the steepest gradients, and this profile gives him room to do exactly that. If he gets clear before the final climb, he will be hard to bring back. With three second places already, he'll be very motivated to turn that into a win.

Michael Valgren is another rider who naturally fits a third week breakaway stage, as we saw yesterday. EF Education-EasyPost will see this as another real opportunity, and Valgren has the engine, experience and tactical sense to be involved when the decisive moves go.

Lidl Trek may look again to Giulio Ciccone, but his problem is obvious: everyone watches him. Every attack brings riders with him, which makes winning from a break much harder. In the ideal scenario, Matteo Sobrero also makes the move and gives Lidl Trek another card to play.

XDS Astana Team have already enjoyed a strong Giro, but they will not be finished looking for stages. Alberto Bettiol looks like their best option after showing his punch on stage 13. Diego Ulissi is another interesting card, with the experience to read a complicated finale. For Thomas Silva, this may be a little too demanding.

Alec Segaert and Lorenzo Milesi are two riders who will likely want to move before the Muro. Both have the engine and time trial ability to make a late attack work. Other names to watch include Nico Denz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Toon Aerts (Lotto-Intermarché), in a stage that should suit riders willing to gamble before the obvious moment.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Stuyven

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Narváez, Leknessund

⭐⭐⭐  Valgren, Raccagni, Ciccone

⭐⭐  Garofoli, Segaert, Milesi, Bettiol

⭐  Ulissi, Dversnes, Denz, Arrieta, Aerts