Giro d’Italia stage 2 preview: Will a punchy test draw out Vingegaard, Pellizzari and co?

This is a fascinating stage. With a demanding finale on the menu, several teams may be reluctant to commit fully to the chase, potentially opening the door for the breakaway. At the same time, riders such as Corbin Strong will certainly see this as an opportunity, while the stronger puncheurs and even some GC contenders could also come into play. 

That mix of interests should create a finely balanced and unpredictable race situation.

Key information:

• Start: 12:05 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:00 (CET)
• Stage type: hilly
• Stage length: 221.24km
• Elevation gain: 2504m

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The opening phase of the stage is relatively straightforward, with little to trouble the peloton early on. From the middle part of the day, however, the terrain becomes increasingly demanding.

The first real obstacle is the Bayala Pass, a 7.5 kilometre climb at an average gradient of 4.5%, followed almost immediately by the Vratnik Pass of 4 kilometres at just over 6%. Neither climb is brutal on its own, but together they will start to build fatigue in the legs.

After a descent, the riders face 64 kilometres of rolling terrain, adding another layer of difficulty before the decisive finale begins. With 14 kilometres to go, the race reaches its key point: the 2.3 kilometre Lyaskovets Monastery Pass averaging 8.9%. That should be enough to split the race apart.

The run-out after the climb is also tricky and could be a launchpad for attacks, before the riders enter a 6.4 kilometre descent. Two kilometres of flat roads then lead into the final, highly delicate section of the stage.

The last two kilometres begin with 700 metres at 6.2%. The road then flattens slightly before a short, shallow descent brings the riders into the finishing straight: 200 metres at 2.5%.

Because of the punchy rise inside the final two kilometres and the high speeds expected into the sprint, positioning will be crucial. Once the riders come out of the downhill section, there will be only 200 metres left to sprint, making it extremely difficult to move up late.

It is not a particularly technical finale, but that does not make positioning any easier. On roads like these, the pressure from behind will be constant, and any mistake in placement could be costly.

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 120.6km to go
• Bayala Pass | 3rd category - 7,5km at 4,5% - 104.7km to go
• Vratnik Pass | 3rd category - 4.2km at 6.2% - 134.6km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 15.5km to go
• Lyaskovets Monastery Pass | 3rd category - 2.3km at 8.9% - 10.4km to go

This is a difficult stage to predict. It requires a very specific type of rider, and because many teams do not have a clear option for this kind of terrain, there should be plenty of interest in the early breakaway.

That said, teams such as NSN Cycling Team, for Corbin Strong, and Bahrain Victorious, for Edoardo Zambanini, will likely be tempted to control the race. Riders like Giulio Ciccone, Lennert Van Eetvelt, Jan Christen and Christian Scaroni are also well suited to this stage, although it is less certain whether their teams will want to take responsibility. 

Jonas Vingegaard even has the ability to distance everyone here, but Team Visma | Lease a Bike is more likely to conserve energy for the bigger challenges later in the race.

That makes the tactical picture hard to read. It is difficult to know which teams will commit to chasing and which teams will prefer to place riders in the breakaway. At this point, it looks close to a 50/50 call between a winner from the early break and a winner from the peloton.

If the stage goes to the breakaway, a wide range of riders could take the win. If it comes back together for the peloton, however, only the strongest will be able to contest the victory. The final climb is a serious obstacle, at 2.3 kilometres with an average gradient of 8.9%, and it looks too difficult for riders such as Tobias Lund Andresen and Paul Magnier.

Even for those who manage to hang on or return after the climb, the sprint will still be demanding. The short plateau over the top of the final climb creates an ideal launchpad for an attack, so for anyone with even a little energy left, making a move there could be the right option.

And on top of that, the final two kilometers are also very demanding. This makes for the fact that the pure top speed won't matter as much, but how much you have left in the tank will.

In 2024, Michael Valgren came agonisingly close to a Giro d’Italia stage win, only being beaten on the line by Benjamin Thomas on stage 5. It was his first year back at WorldTour level after his crash at the Route d'Occitanie, following a season with EF Education - EasyPost’s development team to fully recover and rebuild.

Last year, he raced the Tour de France. This year, he returns to the Giro d'Italia with a different approach, training more at home and spending more time with his family, which appears to be working well. Valgren started the season in excellent form, helping Ben Healy at Strade Bianche while still finishing 13th himself, before winning a Tirreno Adriatico stage from the early breakaway in impressive fashion.

He carried that condition into the Flemish Classics and then shifted his focus to the Giro after the Tour of Flanders. His strong ride at Eschborn Frankfurt, one week before the Giro, suggested that preparation has paid off.

For this stage, Valgren has two possible routes to victory. He can win from the early breakaway, but if he misses the move, a late attack from the peloton on the plateau after the final climb also looks like a real option.

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe will mainly focus on Giulio Pellizzari at this Giro, with the Italian set to be their main leader. This stage already suits him well. He has the explosiveness required to perform on a short, steep climb like this, and he has also shown the courage to attack, even with a rider like Jonas Vingegaard on the start line.

The leader of Team Visma | Lease a Bike is, of course, Vingegaard. On a punchy climb like this, the Dane still seems to be underestimated. If the scenario is right and he already wants to take the maglia rosa, there is a real chance he could distance everyone here. The question is whether he wants to take the leader’s jersey this early, as doing so would also force his team to spend more energy in the days that follow.

With Corbin Strong in their ranks, NSN Cycling Team are likely to be one of the most motivated teams on the day. The New Zealander finds a stage that suits him well, but he will need other teams to help control the riders trying to get into the early breakaway. He will also be hoping that riders like Vingegaard and Pellizzari do not attack on the final climb, because if they do, he could quickly find himself in trouble.

Edoardo Zambanini gives Bahrain Victorious a similar option. Last year, he was narrowly beaten by Mads Pedersen in stage 5, just missing out on a stage win in his home Grand Tour. This year, he will hope to finally take that victory, and this could be the opportunity.

At Movistar Team, Orluis Aular is one possible card, but the final climb appears too difficult for him. Javier Romo looks like the stronger option. He showed excellent form at Itzulia Basque Country, especially in stage 5, the classic Eibar stage, where he bridged back to Paul Seixas and Florian Lipowitz on the iconic Izua climb. A fan caused him to crash uphill, costing him contact with those two riders, but he did not give up and still took third place with a late attack. That is exactly the kind of move he may need again here.

Lidl-Trek may have general classification ambitions with Gee-West, but Giulio Ciccone should not be overlooked. For a stage like this, he is exactly the right type of rider. Even Vingegaard would have difficulty dropping him, and Ciccone also has the kick to finish it off at the end.

For Lennert Van Eetvelt, this could be a chance to turn things around. The Lotto-Intermarché rider has already had plenty of bad luck in his young career and is becoming something of an enigma. If he can rediscover his best shape, however, this stage is tailor-made for him.

At UAE Team Emirates-XRG, the general classification focus will be on Adam Yates, but this stage appears to suit Jan Christen better. The young puncheur broke his collarbone at Milan-Sanremo, but he has had seven weeks since then to prepare for the Giro, which should be enough. He will love this kind of stage.

Christian Scaroni is another rider who should be in the mix. The XDS Astana Team rider is having another strong season, although he has not quite found the same flair as last year. This could be the stage where he turns that around.

Other riders to watch include Simone Gualdi, Jhonatan Narváez, Andrea Vendrame, Thomas Pesenti, Federico Raccagni, Derrek Gee-West and Thymen Arensman.

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Valgren

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Pellizzari, Vingegaard

⭐⭐⭐  Strong, Zambanini, Romo

⭐⭐  Ciccone, Van Eetvelt, Christen, Scaroni

⭐  Gualdi, Narváez, Vendrame, Pesenti, Raccagni