Giro d'Italia stage 20 preview - What does Vingegaard still want from this Giro?

On the eve of the Giro’s traditional finale in Rome, the peloton faces one last brutal examination in the mountains. The route to Piancavallo is not only demanding on paper, it is dangerous in the context of the race. After three weeks of accumulated fatigue, one bad day here could still reshape the battle for the positions behind Jonas Vingegaard.

Key information:

• Start: 11:00 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 16:00 (CET)
• Stage type: mountain
• Stage length: 200.81km
• Elevation gain: 3848m

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The opening 133 kilometres are relatively benign. The road is mostly flat, interrupted only by a handful of early obstacles: two short climbs and the third category ascent to Clauzetto, which measures 6.8 kilometres at 5.7 percent.

That gentle start, however, is deceptive. The real character of the stage is defined by Piancavallo, climbed twice in the final 70 kilometres. The ascent is 14.3 kilometres long at an average gradient of 7.8 percent, but the numbers do not tell the full story. The opening 8.4 kilometres average 9.3 percent, making it a climb that immediately punishes hesitation and weakness.

The first passage comes with 53 kilometres remaining. From there, a technical descent leads into a long valley section before the race returns to Piancavallo for the summit finish. The relatively calm run in may encourage a large breakaway, but the double ascent means that any lead will have to be substantial to survive.

Piancavallo has recent Giro history. In 2020, Tao Geoghegan Hart won here ahead of Wilco Kelderman and Jai Hindley, on a day that proved decisive in the fight for pink.

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 127.5km to go
• Clauzetto | 3rd category - 115km to go - 6.8km at 5.7%
• First ascent of Piancavallo | 1st category - 53km to go - 14.3km at 7.8%
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 25.5km to go
• Second ascent of Piancallo | 1st category - finish - 14.3km at 7.8%

This is one of the hardest stages of the Giro to predict.

On one hand, the long flat approach makes early control difficult. At this point in the race, few teams will be willing or able to spend riders for more than 130 kilometres before the first major climb. That gives the breakaway an obvious opportunity.

On the other hand, the nature of the opening kilometres could complicate the formation of that break. Flat starts often create a chaotic, stop start fight to get clear, with riders repeatedly neutralising each other. If the escape only gains only a limited advantage before the first ascent of Piancavallo, its chances may quickly disappear.

The key question may be how much appetite Visma | Lease a Bike still has for this final mountain stage. On Saturday morning, the team made it clear that it wanted to race for the win. And given how strong it has looked in controlling the race, Visma will have every chance of bringing it back together and finishing the job.

The favourites can roughly be divided into three groups: the pure breakaway riders, the GC outsiders who may try to move up through the early move, and the main general classification contenders if the peloton brings the race back together.

Among the pure breakaway riders, Giulio Ciccone is an obvious name. The Lidl-Trek rider showed on Friday that he has the quality to win a stage of this difficulty, but that is also his problem. He is too dangerous to be given much freedom, especially on a route where the break may form on the flat.

Wout Poels offers Unibet Rose Rockets a genuine chance in the same scenario. His form has been strong throughout the race, and this kind of late Giro mountain stage suits his experience and endurance.

Uno-X Mobility have been among the most aggressive stage hunting teams of the race, and Johannes Kulset looks like their best option from the break. After a difficult opening week, he showed signs of renewed strength on the road to Carì. For a light climber, he is also capable of making the right move on flatter terrain.

The second group is made up of riders who could use the breakaway not only to chase the stage, but also to improve their GC position. Pinarello-Q36.5 could be central to that tactical picture. 

Chris Harper has looked excellent and remains a dangerous week three rider. His victory on the Finestre stage last year underlined his ability to grow into a Grand Tour. David de la Cruz is another card to play, and the ideal scenario for the team would be to place both riders in the early move.

Ben O’Connor is another rider to watch in this category. The Jayco AlUla leader has built part of his Grand Tour reputation on aggressive breakaway rides that also serve a GC purpose. He tried something similar on stage 17, but this stage may offer a better platform. In stage 19, he struggled, but you can never count him out.

Mathys Rondel is also worth considering. The Tudor rider has struggled with the heat earlier in the race, but on Friday he was part of the breakaway and made a strong impression.

Then there are the GC riders themselves. If Visma is going to do what they say, Jonas Vingegaard is the obvious favourite. Every major mountain finish so far has pointed in the same direction, and if he sees an opportunity to add another victory, he is unlikely to let it pass. Team Visma | Lease a Bike also have Davide Piganzoli as another card to play from the GC group, and someone Vingegaard may be keen to reward.

For Decathlon CMA CGM, the priority will almost certainly be protection rather than aggression. Felix Gall is on course for what could be his first Grand Tour podium, and the team’s main task will be to guide him safely through one final mountain ambush.

Netcompany Ineos face a similar challenge with Thymen Arensman. He remains firmly in the podium conversation and can count on the experience and quality of Egan Bernal alongside him.

Jai Hindley is the other major podium threat. The Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider knows Piancavallo well from his performance there in 2020 and should have Giulio Pellizzari in support. The Australian rode himself onto the virtual podium on stage 19, but with Arensman just 29 seconds behind, his position is anything but secure.

There is also room for something more unpredictable. Derek Gee-West has the engine and durability to make an impact late in a Grand Tour, while Tudor will hope Michael Storer can still push towards the top five. The pair launched a daring move on stage 19. Will they try something audacious again here?

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Vingegaard

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Gall, Hindley

⭐⭐⭐  Gee-West, Arensman, Piganzoli

⭐⭐  Rondel, Ciccone, Storer, Bernal

⭐  Harper, Poels, Kulset, de la Cruz, O'Connor