Giro d'Italia stage 13 preview - Why Filippo Ganna sees a dream stage

This stage from Alessandra to Verbania is very tricky. For a long time, very little happens on paper. The route is flat, exposed and relatively straightforward, which should encourage a large fight for the breakaway. 

But the finale is sharp enough to punish hesitation. If the right group goes clear, it may well contest the stage. If the race comes back together, a rider like Jonas Vingegaard could suddenly find the terrain to strike.

And there is one rider who will want this stage more than almost anyone else: Filippo Ganna, racing on roads close to his birthplace and on terrain that could suit him perfectly.

Key information:

• Start: 12:55 (CET)
• Estimated Finish: 17:13 (CET)
• Stage type: hilly
• Stage length: 189.32km
• Elevation gain: 1148m

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The first 166 kilometres offer little drama on the route profile. It is a long, flat approach, the kind of terrain where the battle to make the breakaway can be far more demanding than the roads themselves.

Then everything changes.

With 23.4 kilometres to go, the riders hit the first obstacle of the finale: Bieno, a 2.3 kilometre climb at 5.8%. It is not decisive on its own, but it introduces the final sequence and will begin to soften the legs.

After a short descent and a brief flat section, the race reaches the main difficulty of the day: Ungiasca. The climb is 4.7 kilometres long at 7.1%, but the numbers only tell part of the story. The final 1.6 kilometres average 10%, making it feel much more like an Ardennes ascent than a typical Giro third category climb.

From the summit, there is a 1.3 kilometre plateau, followed by a technical five kilometre descent. Once that is negotiated, only 6.4 flat kilometres remain to the finish in Verbania. There is no great tactical puzzle there. It will simply be about who still has the power to drive all the way to the line.

Key points

• Intermediate sprint - 33km to go
• Bieno | 4th category climb - 2.3km at 5.8% - 21km to go
• Red Bull km (bonification sprint) - 16.5km to go (1km into last climb)
• Ungiasca | 3rd category climb - 4.7km at 7.1% - 13km to go

This looks like a classic breakaway opportunity. The difficulty is finding a team with both the motivation and the firepower to control almost 190 kilometres for a sprinter or puncheur.

Many riders will see this as one of the better chances left in the race. That should make the opening phase fast and chaotic. The flat roads will favour riders with big engines, while the late climb means the break still needs real climbing quality. 

The winning move may not be the strongest climber, but the rider who combines power, punch and courage in the final hour.

Filippo Ganna (Netcompany Ineos) finds something close to a dream stage here. After the time trial, he said it was time for a different version of himself, and this route gives him the ideal stage to show it. With the finish close to his birthplace, his motivation will be obvious.

The final climb is hard enough to hurt him, but a top level Ganna should not be underestimated on this kind of terrain. He could also move before Ungiasca and force others to chase. If he gets a gap on the flat, very few riders will want to take responsibility for bringing him back.

Matteo Sobrero is a similar profile. He has the engine to make the move on the flat, the climbing ability to survive the finale and the tactical freedom to ride aggressively. There is also the family connection with Ganna, as the two are brothers in law. Together, they could shape one of the stories of the day.

Lidl-Trek also has Giulio Ciccone, who would become an obvious favourite if he makes the break. The problem is getting there. On flat roads, rivals will not want to give him that opportunity. If he does force his way into the right move, however, the final climb suits him perfectly.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG will also be central to the race. Jhonatan Narváez looks like their most natural candidate. He may not have the biggest engine for a flat breakaway battle, but few riders read a race as well as he does. On a day where timing could matter as much as strength, that is a major asset.

Mikkel Bjerg gives the team another option. His time trial power makes him dangerous before the climbs, especially if the race hesitates. If he anticipates the final ascent, he could become very difficult to catch.

Jan Christen has the punch for this kind of stage, though his challenge may be tactical. He can sometimes attack repeatedly and still miss the move that matters. António Morgado has not yet shown the level many expected from him at this Giro, while Igor Arrieta does not have the ideal profile for this finish. Still, he has already shown that he should not be dismissed.

When race intelligence becomes a decisive factor, Michael Valgren has to be mentioned. The EF Education-EasyPost rider has repeatedly shown that he understands how to manage complex racing situations. That could help him both in the fight for the breakaway and in the finale. He also appears to have the legs.

Movistar Team have been highly visible throughout this Giro, and Lorenzo Milesi is one of their most interesting options here. He is riding well, has the engine for the flat approach and should be able to handle the final climb. He could also try to anticipate before Ungiasca.

Andrea Raccagni (Soudal Quick-Step) is enjoying an impressive first Grand Tour. This stage looks well suited to him. He has the power for the flat roads, can survive a hard climb and carries a strong sprint if a reduced group reaches the finish.

Rémi Cavagna (Groupama-FDJ United) will also be looking beyond the time trial now. In the past, he has been one of the peloton’s most dangerous breakaway engines. His time trial legs seem to be returning at Groupama FDJ United. The question is whether his attacking instinct follows.

XDS Astana Team have had an excellent Giro, and Thomas Guillermo Silva has been one of the main reasons. He keeps finding ways to perform, and this stage gives him another chance to chase a result.

Alberto Bettiol should also like the look of this profile. He tried on stage 8 without success, but this is the kind of rolling, tactical finale where he can be dangerous.

One question mark is Christian Scaroni. Has he lost time deliberately with this kind of stage in mind? If so, he could be another Astana option for the breakaway.

Other riders to watch include Toon Aerts (Lotto-Intermarché), Alec Segaert (Bahrain-Victorious), and Frederik Dversnes (Uno-X Mobility).

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Ganna

⭐⭐⭐⭐  Sobrero, Narváez

⭐⭐⭐  Valgren, Milesi, Ciccone

⭐⭐  Bjerg, Cavagna, Silva, van den Broek

⭐  Bettiol, Dversnes, Aerts, Raccagni, Segaert