Preview European Championship Men Elite - Pogacar faces Evenepoel and Vingegaard in quest for first European crown

Here are the key details of the men's European Championship road race:

Date: Sunday, October 5
Length: 202.7 km
Elevation gain: 3376m
Start and finish time: 11:45 (CET) - around 16:30 (CET)

The race starts in Privas, where Wout van Aert won a stage in the 2020 Tour de France. The opening stretch to the local circuits covers 47.5 km, immediately heading uphill over the Col du Moulin à Vent (4.2 km at 4.8%). 

From there, the route turns northeast towards the first passage in Guilherand-Granges, where the circuit racing begins. Riders will tackle three demanding laps of 34.8 km before switching to three shorter finishing circuits of 17 km each.

We know this circuit well from the Faun Ardèche Classic, it’s essentially a copy-paste of that race’s finale.

The climb to Saint-Romain-de-Lerps is the longest of the day, and on top of that, it’s highly irregular. The opening 2 km ramp up at 10% and after the milder middle section, the road ramps up again with 800 metres at 10%. 

The descent is twisty, so it’s good that it stays dry. And once at the bottom, it’s only 3 km to the foot of the Val d'Enfer, which I’ll take a closer look at in a moment. Doing this long circuit three times will cause a tough selection. After the third lap there’s only 51 km remaining, so we can definitely expect fireworks on the long circuit.

After completing the third lap, the riders will do the short circuit of 17 km three times. This includes the Mur de Costebelle, as well as the Val d'Enfer, which will therefore be tackled a total of six times.

The climb starts right after a sharp corner and includes two hairpin bends. It’s short and explosive with a maximum gradient of 17%. Making a big difference here isn’t easy, but it definitely wears on the legs. The profile below approximates reality, but when I calculate it manually based on the actual elevation gain, it comes to 273m at 12.8%.

1.5 km at 10.2% with pitches of up to 15%. The Val d'Enfer could be the decisive climb, with the top coming 6 km from the finish on the final of its six ascents. 

The climb is fairly comparable to the Redoute in terms of both length and gradient.

A short descent follows after the summit, after which the road climbs again for 500 m at 5.8%, before finally plunging down into the valley for the final 3 flat kilometers. 

In the final 2 km there are 5 roundabouts. Riders, take note: at the last roundabout, go straight on, not right. Most will remember what happened earlier this year in the Faun Ardèche Classic, when half of the lead group went right with 400 m to go instead of straight ahead, allowing Grégoire to pick up the victory with ease. It’s the same finish, with a nice wide straight road leading to the finish.

The wind will pick up again on Sunday, reaching 26–30 km/h, with gusts over 50 km/h. Tailwind on the Val d'Enfer and headwind towards the finish. Fairly sunny, although temperatures won’t climb above 16°C.

Well, it’s been 1.264 days since Pogačar, Evenepoel and Vingegaard lined up together for a one-day race. In the 2022 La Flèche Wallonne, none of the three finished in the top 10, and Teuns took victory on the Mur de Huy, times have certainly changed.

3,376 meters of climbing over 202.7 km already shows how tough this race is, but in reality it’s even harder than the numbers suggest. There are two reasons for that: almost all of the climbing is packed into the final 146 km, and there are long, flat sections between the climbs. The climbing kilometers are therefore almost always steep.

By far the toughest European Championships ever, and I’m not sure we’ll see a harder one anytime soon. As a result, the group of contenders for gold, and more broadly for a medal, is particularly small.

I expect that the Slovenians, Belgians and Danes will take control of the race.

Pogačar doesn’t have a second strong card, so for him, attack is always the best defense, as on the flat sections between the climbs, he risks being put under pressure by Vingegaard-Skjelmose and Evenepoel-Van Gils, who can attack in ways that force him to chase on the flat. I expect the final climb to Saint-Romain-de-Lerps to be the point where the cards are really laid on the table. 

That’s between 70 and 77 km from the finish. Of course, with this generation, you never really know, 100+ km finals aren’t uncommon, but from a tactical standpoint, I see this as a crucial part. 

We start with one clear favourite and two challengers. After his dominant performance in Kigali, Pogačar is once again the man to beat. And although he’s hard to beat, two riders have a chance to do so: Evenepoel and Vingegaard. Evenepoel is in the best shape of the year, or ever, and if his saddle holds up, he should be able to put more pressure on Pogačar this time than he did last Sunday. 

Vingegaard should arrive at the start slightly fresher, three weeks after the end of the Vuelta. The question is what he still has left in his legs after two Grand Tours. He doesn’t have the strongest one-day race reputation. Since his recent performances, his punch has improved, and I think he’s going to do well. One last big effort this season.

Could one of the two challengers be bold enough to open the finale? It’s certainly possible.

Who can still hang on when the big names go? The number of riders from the next tier is fairly limited. I can see Ayuso following at first, he won here in 2024 and his form is definitely solid. A shorter race with no cobbles should deliver him a better result than last week.

Denmark has a second medal option in Skjelmose. Due to crashes, he’s only had 47 race days this year, but the upside is that at this point in the season, freshness can still deliver strong results. His World Championships performance was excellent in every aspect, he races smart and knows his limits. The course suits him well, and he also enjoys racing here in February and March. He’s perhaps the most important medal contender outside the three top favourites.

In theory, Van Gils is the Belgians’ second card, but the gap in level with Remco, means that in practice it will likely play out differently. Maxim has had an inconsistent season and had to miss Canada and the GP Wallonie due to illness. In recent weeks, however, he says he’s been training well. He knows the region well, and I expect him to be at a decent level, a top-10 contender in Remco’s shadow. If Benoot regains the legs he showed in Montreal after his illness, he could also be a big help for Remco.

The interview with Almeida might be misleading, but I’d be surprised if he can match the top riders this Sunday. I do think he’s being honest when he says his preparation for this European Championship was suboptimal. Almeida also has the “Vingegaard syndrome”: an absolute class in stage races, but he too often falls short in one-day races. I think he’ll have to be at his very best to shine here, which doesn’t seem likely at the moment, a top 10 is possible. But that shouldn’t overshadow his fantastic season.

Then we come to the young generation: Seixas (18), Christen (21) and Grégoire (22) have all the abilities to compete for a top-5 finish. Christen also finds a course that suits him here, and he’ll likely try to follow the attack of his team mate Pogačar again. Jan does have a tendency to fly too close to the sun and risk missing out on a top result. If he races smart, though, he could go much further than last week, when he completely faded in the finale. I think he’ll be stronger than his compatriot Hirschi.

The two Frenchmen will be highly motivated racing at home. Grégoire was smart enough to skip the overly tough World Championships, which should help him deliver a strong result here. As mentioned earlier, he already won on this course earlier this year.

Seixas surprised everyone last weekend by mixing it with the top riders at the toughest World Championships ever, despite his young age. We’re going to enjoy a lot more of him, and it will be interesting to see how well he’s recovered. In the (near) future, he’ll be contending for gold on courses like this. The French are starting with a strong, well-rounded team. The Paret-Peintre brothers and Sivakov should also be able to go far here or animate the race.

The Italians, Bettiol and Scaroni, are also fighting for a top-10 finish, and one of them is likely to succeed. A quick mention for Skujins as well, he would have preferred a longer race. He’s a true championship rider, as noted last week ahead of the Worlds. Could he add to his string of top-10 finishes at major championships? That’s certainly possible.