Tour de France stage 2 preview - Van der Poel to take yellow from Philipsen?

Stage 1 immediately sparked excitement with late echelons and gaps between GC contenders. On day two, the peloton tackles 209.1 kilometres from Lauwin-Planque to Boulogne-sur-Mer, the longest stage with 2,308 metres of climbing and a finale that offers more questions than answers. The terrain is lumpy throughout, building towards an explosive finale packed with short, steep climbs. Is Van der Poel taking over the yellow jersey from Philipsen?

Start: 12:35 (CET) 
Estimated finish: 17:34 (CET)

Follow stage 2 via our live report

The day can be divided into three phases:

• A combination of flat and rolling roads in the first part through Artois
• A tense, explosive final through the Pays Boulonnais
• An uphill final kilometre in the heart of Boulogne-sur-Mer

The stage leaves Lauwin-Planque in the Hauts-de-France and heads westward in a pattern of soft ascents and false flats. Alpecin will ensure a manageable break.

As we are getting closer toward the Opal Coast, the stage gets its first categorised climb halfway through the stage with the Côte de Cavron-Saint-Martin (1km - 6.9%). It's a 4th category climb at 103,6km to go to the finish. 

Côte de Cavron-Saint-Martin (900m - 7.3%)
4th category climb at 105,1km to go

The final begins upon entering the Pays Boulonnais. The Côte du Haut Pichot (1.1km - 9.3%) is the first real test, with the top coming 30 km from the finish line.

It’s just a prelude for what’s to come. It will stretch out the peloton and act as a gateway to a more fractured, nervous run-in.

Côte du Haut Pichot (1.1km - 9.3%)
3rd category - 29.9 km to the finish

From here, the roads roll, pitch and narrow, offering little sense of structure. The pace will surge as the race nears the last 10 kilometres, and being too far back at that point is a mistake you might regret with the with the Côte de Saint-Etienne-au-Mont coming up first.

Before the Côte de Saint-Etienne-au-Mont, there are three sharp corners. There will be a big fight for positioning, and the peloton will begin the climb in a stretched-out formation, which greatly increases the risk of splits. This is the perfect setup for a team attack. Calais is just around the corner, if you know what I mean.

The Côte de Saint-Etienne-au-Mont (1.0km - 10.2%)  is the toughest climb in this final, featuring a 500-metre straight section at 14%. It will crush the dreams of all sprinters, and some GC diesels. We’ll probably catch glimpses of Arensman struggling at the tail of the peloton.

Côte de Saint-Etienne-au-Mont (1.0km - 10.2%)
3rd category - 8.6 km to the finish

From the summit, it’s full speed ahead toward the final categorised climb: the Côte d’Outreau. The descent features a few gentle bends that don’t slow down the pace.

Just before entering Boulogne-sur-Mer, the last hurdle is there with the Côte d’Outreau (800m - 8.9%). From the top, it’s a fast descent straight into the last kilometre.

The Outreau also starts after a corner and is slightly gentler but still hits double-digits, with a maximum gradient of 12% near the top. The combination of these two climbs close to each other will break up the bunch

Côte d’Outreau (800m - 8.9%)
4th category - 5.3 km to the finish

From the Côte d’Outreau, the route descends in two steps on roads with few corners. There are two 90° turns at 2.3 km and 1.2 km to go. The peloton will likely be significantly reduced by then, but punchers and GC contenders will all be fighting hard for the best position through these bends. 

You can expect a late attack in the final 5 km from someone who’s been considered as no threat for GC, hoping that the domestiques are worn out.

The final kilometre rises at 4.5%, with the steepest stretch (9%) between 700 and 550 metres from the line.

After that, it levels out, and there’s still a chance to set things right. After the final corner, the road rises again, at 5%.

The hardest part of the final km (9%) at 600 meters to go.

In the case of a reduced sprint, it will all come down to how it’s played out in the final metres.

Whoever takes the lead and the inside line in the long corner at 150m is buying a ticket to win the stage, though the road still kicks up at 5% all the way to the line.

And in the picture below you've got the view from the finish line.

The riders are facing a lot of wind, averaging around 24-28 km/h with gusts up to 50 km/h, and for a large part of the stage, it's a headwind. In the final 50 km, strong crosswinds are common, but the rolling terrain and sheltered roads make it quite unlikely for echelons to form. I don’t expect any to happen. But the crosswinds won't make the final easier, the nervousness will be even higher.

It’s important to mention that there is also a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms during the stage. However, it's difficult to predict exactly when and how much rain will fall. These types of showers are usually short-lived, but they can bring a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Some areas may stay dry all afternoon, while others might not be so lucky. We'll see if the riders have luck on their side. Temperatures will range between 19 and 20 degrees Celsius. So, summer is taking a break in the north of France.

The final two climbs feature a cross/headwind, which could discourage attackers. The last 4 kilometres will be with a tailwind.

A beautifully designed route by the organisers. A stage for both punchers and GC riders. I think many cycling fans are eagerly looking forward to this one, unlike a part of the peloton, as this is another stage with a lot of nervous tension, and some GC riders will be very happy if they don’t crash and don’t lose time again. The inevitable rush toward the foot of the climbs makes me a bit apprehensive.

Van der Poel, Van Aert, Grégoire and other punchers will have their first chance to battle for the win here. Van der Poel is the main favorite to win the stage and to take over the yellow jersey from his teammate. I don't think Philipsen stands a chance to hold his yellow jersey in this very demanding final. If a reduced group goes to the final kilometer, the riders mentioned above will fight for the win. But they won’t be handed this stage on a silver platter. Normally, I would also mention Nys here, but he crashed today, and it remains to be seen how he will perform tomorrow.

Because of course, there are riders in this race with the names Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel. I expect them to be up there, as this generation isn’t afraid of aggressive racing. They won’t drop each other, but they could decide who's gonna win this stage. The strong headwind on the final two climbs will decrease the chance of attacking, but they’ll definitely respond to any attacks, and they certainly want to be in the front at any moment in the final. And after losing time in stage 1, Evenepoel could be very motivated to make a strong comeback.

Those are all the more obvious names, but as I mentioned earlier, this is also the perfect terrain for classic riders like Healy, Schmid, Onley and Powless who have a course here that plays to their strengths. A rider like that is capable of launching a surprise attack in the final kilometre(s). The plateau between 5 and 4 kilometres could be an ideal spot for an attack, particularly if the group is splintered and disorganised. From there, they’ll have the wind at their backs. Another option is to go for it in the penultimate flat kilometre and hope there’s no response. It’s definitely going to be tough to hang on in that final uphill kilometre. An attack just after the steep section, with around 500 meters to go, could also be a good moment, but that’s really close to the line, so the chances of a response are high.

An early breakaway has little to no chance of succeeding for several reasons:
- Strong (head)wind
- Alpecin wants to keep the yellow jersey
- You need a big gap in the final

But never say never! My main scenario is a reduced sprint with a mix of punchers and GC riders in the top 10.

The last time we had a finish in Boulogne-sur-Mer was back in 2012, when Sagan easily left Boasson Hagen and Velits behind and celebrated with his famous Forrest Gump impression. Who’s gonna be the fastest runner this time?

The finish line back then was located a bit further south and didn’t follow the same road as this year. Back then, it was a shorter but steeper climb to the finish line. Below, you can see the difference between the two final kilometres.