Stage 12: Can Pogacar get his revenge on Hautacam?

We’re heading into the Pyrenees, and stage 12 brings the first true mountain showdown of this year’s race, with a summit finish on Hautacam.This time, Toms Skujiņš will be right: #theRealTDF starts today. Will Pogačar land a second blow on Vingegaard, or is Vingegaard able to hang on?

Start: 13:25 (CET)
Estimated arrival: 17:44 (CET)
Total length stage 11: 180.6km
Elevation gain: 3815m

Follow every move of stage 12 via our live report!

The first hour is mostly on rolling, slightly hilly roads. Will we see a long battle for the break? Not as long as today, at least. Some strong engines will be up there. The first part of the stage suits them well.

Roughly halfway through the stage, we’ll hit the first climb, followed by the intermediate sprint just after the descent. I expect Trek will do everything they can to get Milan in the break so he can contest the sprint, but the organizers aren’t making it easy for him, throwing in a tough kicker right before it. After the intermediate sprint, the road gradually begins to rise again, leading up to Ferrières, where the Col du Soulor begins.

Côte de Labatmale (1.3 km at 6.3%) + Intermediate sprint
4th category - 86km to the finish

Stage 12, and they finally hit a first-category climb. Set in a breathtakingly green landscape, the riders ascend to the summit, which comes 46.7 km from the finish. It never gets truly steep, but as is typical for a Pyrenean climb, it’s quite irregular at times.

Col du Soulor (11.9km at 7.6%)
1st category - 46.7 km to the finish

Instead of descending straight to Argelès-Gazost, they take a detour via the Col des Bordères. The latter measures 3.2 km at 8.0%, a punchy effort.The descents are technical, as they always are in this region. It's the kind of terrain where you can put someone under pressure, who’s brave enough to try?

Hautacam (13.4km at 7.9%)
Hors Catégorie - Finish on the top

Nothing out of the ordinary on the weather maps. We're in for a sunny day with temperatures nearing 30°C, and even at the summit of Hautacam, it remains fairly warm at around 24°C. The light wind is mostly in their favor.

The question is whether Pogačar will be affected by his crash. I suspect it won’t be a major issue, and that he’ll be out to make a statement in this stage. After his performance in Combloux during the Dauphiné, he now faces a second shot at redemption, surely, the memory of what happened here three years ago is still vivid. I’m expecting a fiery Slovenian.

As a fan of suspense, I can only hope the two greatest Grand Tour riders of our era are evenly matched. But I’ll admit, I’m holding my breath.

Are there reasons to feel optimistic? Yes and no. Not because of Vingegaard, he’ll be performing at an extremely high level, but mainly because, since Pogačar changed coaches, we've seen very few signs of weakness. It’s hard to be fully convinced we’re heading into a true two-man battle. 

Behind those two, it could be very tight. I’m expecting Lipowitz, Jorgenson, and Evenepoel to finish close together.

Also likely to be in the mix among the GC contenders, in order: Gall, Johannessen and Mas. Kuss should be close as well, depending on the work he’s done, but I’m expecting a strong Kuss, not the 2024 version. And then there’s Roglič. This is the moment he’ll have to show his hand. This stage has little to do with explosive power or positioning. So, Primož, if you’re going to make something happen, now’s the time. The top 5 is still within reach.

As for Onley and Vauquelin, currently sixth and seventh, I think they’ll start slipping back. Especially Vauquelin, I suspect he’s in for a tough day.

And what about race leader Healy? He’ll put in a solid ride, but it won’t be enough to keep the yellow jersey.

Does the break have a chance? The flatter run-in could give the breakaway a time advantage, but it's not easy for a climber to make it into the break. I think the odds of a breakaway rider staying away are slim. If anyone does manage it, Arensman looks the most promising. I already predicted a strong second half of the Tour from him in the Domestique Stars, and he’s already showing signs, starting with Stage 10. I expect to see more strong rides from him.

There are 36 KOM points up for grabs in this stage, 20 of which are on the final climb. Can Bahrain get their lightweight Lenny Martinez into the break? I’m also expecting a small comeback from the crashed Buitrago in these Pyrenees. Other outsiders with a small shot from the break: Storer, O’Connor and Skjelmose. But the list is short, you’d need a huge gap to make it. 

So all signs point to a GC day, especially with the climbing time trial coming the next day, when domestiques will likely be allowed to take it a bit easier, though ‘easy’ is always a relative term in the mountains. It wouldn't surprise me if Visma also has a “Soulor-Bordères plan” up their sleeve. With Almeida out, they simply have the strongest team, but whether that’s enough to turn the Tour around remains to be seen.

Already mentioned above, but it truly remains one of the photos of the century: that moment when green jersey Van Aert pulls at the front for Vingegaard and drops Pogačar. A moment to remember forever, almost three years ago.