Pogacar vs Vingegaard – Who has the stronger Tour de France team?

Let’s start with the obvious topic, the battle between the two superstars (read also our preview). Tadej Pogačar comes into the Tour brimming with confidence after another remarkable spring campaign and a dominant Dauphiné display. But the two-time Tour victor Jonas Vingegaard will be relishing the role of the underdog, with all of the pressure obviously located on the big favourite Pogačar. The Dane will be returning to the scenes of some of his best Tour memories with climbs including the Col de la Loze, where he wrapped up the Tour in 2023 after Pogačar’s notorious concession of “I’m gone I am dead.” If the Tour is as tight as 2023, then the Col de la Loze might be a modern-day colosseum showcasing a glorious gladiator battle between the pair on July 24. 

Vingegaard and Visma | Lease a Bike will have to conjure up some special tactics, like they have done on recent Tours to crack Pogačar, because as he showed at the Dauphiné, the Slovenian is another level right now. But is Pogačar really uncrackable in his current shape? Vingegaard will have spent his training camp in Tignes working on matching the explosive seated attack that Pogačar has been utilising ever since 2024, and Visma will hope the gap between the pair can be closed to a finer margin than it was at the Dauphiné.

After the stage 1 shenanigans we witnessed at the Dauphiné, where Vingegaard lit up the stage even catching Pogačar napping, will we see Visma | Lease a Bike and Vingegaard go down that route of the element of surprise? Perhaps, with the potential chaos that is expected in the first week of the Tour, with windy conditions, narrow roads, and other factors which could into the equation of a surprise attack.

The sheer level of talent among the climbing domestiques at Visma | Lease a Bike is greater than UAE Emirates-XRG by the barest of margins. But with two recent Grand Tour winners in Sepp Kuss (2023 Vuelta a España) and Simon Yates (2025 Giro d’Italia) in their ranks, along with the Matteo Jorgenson and Wout van Aert, then Visma get the nod. Tiesj Benoot can also play an early part when the road climbs.

If Vingegaard is to succeed in the Tour this year, Van Aert is bound to play a pivotal role, and he showed some of his vim of old on stage 20 of the Giro, where he emptied his tank on behalf of his leader Simon Yates. Van Aert played a key role in Vingegaard’s two Tour victories, with absolutely herculean pulls to launch his leader to the yellow jersey.

Over at UAE-Emirates-XRG, Pogačar’s climbing domestiques don’t have the same palmarès, but there is no shortage of talent in Adam Yates, Pavel Sivakov, João Almeida and Marc Soler, The super domestique at Pogačar’s disposal will be Almeida, who placed fourth overall at the 2024 Tour and has been in fine form this season. Almeida recently won the Tour de Suisse general classification after an almighty comeback, which was needed after some questionable team tactics on stage 1. 

It was striking that Tim Wellens – crowned Belgian champion on Sunday – turned himself inside out in the Dauphiné as a domestique for Pogačar. Wellens put in arguably the best climbing displays of his life, and he will have a key role to play in the opening week, especially when it comes to supporting Pogačar in potentially dangerous situations.

Pavel Sivakov also rode a superb Dauphiné, becoming Pogačar’s last man in certain situations, especially in the latter part of the race as Visma | Lease a Bike lit up stages in order to isolate the Slovenian. Even then, Sivakov couldn’t be shrugged aside. The conclusion that can clearly be made between the two teams’ climbing domestiques is that Visma have greater talent but UAE have a touch more depth.

Visma | Lease a Bike bring Victor Campenaerts, Tiesj Benoot and Edoardo Affini as their strong men on the flat, along with the ever-reliable Wout van Aert. That quartet of strong rouleurs will benefit Vingegaard in the opening week, as he is bound to be well positioned thanks to the sheer numbers that the beehive bring. Affini will be making his Tour debut, and the European time trial champion won’t be fazed by the occasion. 

By comparison, UAE Team Emirates – XRG look at a numerical disadvantage on the flat, but with Nils Politt, Jhonatan Narváez and the versatile Tim Wellens, they have ample talent. Politt will be appearing on the front of the peloton a lot this July, noticeable with his shining grimace, working to control breakaways or situations that may arise for UAE Emirates-XRG. 

The numbers game could be a key factor in the rouleur department. The tricky opening week was underestimated by many until they performed a deeper dive of the parcours. Weather conditions will be a factor too – expect some proper Visma | Lease a Bike invention in that week.