'2025 European Championships route tougher than Kigali', says Belgian coach Pauwels

"I don't see more than ten riders in total who are in contention for the win," Pauwels explained to Nieuwsblad. "The Faun-Ardeche Classic runs on a similar course with the same climbs, and in recent years you've seen names like Romain Grégoire, Juan Ayuso and Mattias Skjelmose appear at the front. Those are also the names you can expect on Sunday, supplemented by Tadej Pogačar and Remco [Evenepoel], of course, but also Jonas Vingegaard."

The 200-kilometre course packs in more than 3,000 metres of elevation gain, with the majority of the climbs concentrated in the final 150 kilometres. The repeated ascents in quick succession create a profile that heavily favours pure climbers, rather than all-rounders or classics specialists.

Pauwels believes the course characteristics will perfectly suit the abilities of Tour de France rivals Vingegaard and Pogačar. "In the Tour you saw how Vingegaard and Pogačar always attacked on such climbs. This course suits their abilities perfectly."

However, despite Pogačar's recent tendency for long-range attacks, Pauwels doesn't anticipate a similar approach in this race due to the course layout. "After the long climb there's a significant intermediate section towards the Val d'Enfer. If he tries that, it could end badly. Besides with the Val d'Enfer, there are plenty of opportunities in the final stages."

Belgian star Remco Evenepoel also features prominently in Pauwels’ shortlist of favourites. "Remco is far from without a chance. This race is incredibly close to Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and that's by far the classic that suits Remco the best."

When comparing the course to other recent championship routes, Pauwels doesn't hesitate to rank this as among the most severe. "Kigali was especially grueling, this is even more so for climbers. For me, this is one of the toughest courses ever for an international championship, tougher than Kigali for sure. There you had Mount Kigali and the conditions, but in terms of elevation gain, this is much tougher."

The concentration of climbing in the latter part of the race will likely lead to a war of attrition, with only the strongest climbers remaining to contest the final kilometres. "The race is only 200 kilometres long, and yet we face over 3,000 metres of elevation gain, almost all of which is in the last 150 kilometres," concluded Pauwels.