6.4w/kg on Friday and 7.1w/kg on Sunday suggest Vingegaard has yet to hit top gear at the Giro

On Friday and Sunday, Vingegaard came to the fore and showed us what kind of form he’s in. Both stages, Vingegaard took the victory, but in less-than-convincing fashion. Felix Gall finished second on both occasions, ceding only 25 seconds in total to the two-time Tour de France winner. As we dive into the numbers, we may reveal the true standing of Vingegaard’s fitness. 

Some suggest that his performance is far worse than previous years. Let’s get past all the commentary and analyse the actual numbers. 

Stage 7 of the Giro d’Italia featured the first major summit finish of the race: Blockhaus. At 13.6km with an average gradient of 8.4%, the climb was eager to reveal the standing of the GC contenders. Anyone with flat or weak legs would lose minutes on the 40-minute mountain. 

At 244km in length, Stage 7 was also one of the longest and toughest stages of the Giro. In fact, it was one of the longest Grand Tour mountain stages in recent memory. This would certainly affect the climbing performances on the day, with riders carrying 1000-2000 additional kilojoules in the legs as they began the climb. 

Vingegaard was the rider to watch, and when the Dane accelerated with just over 5km to go, only Giulio Pellizzari was able to follow. But the Italian began to fade, and in his shadow arrived the figure of Felix Gall. The Austrian attacked almost immediately, distancing Pellizzari and beginning to close in on Vingegaard. 

By the top of the climb, Vingegaard was grimacing with Gall only a hundred meters behind him. While the Dane took the win, Gall looked as strong as ever, and it was Jai Hindley who overtook Pellizzari for the final spot on the podium. 

Compared to Vingegaard’s best-ever performances, his climb on Blockhaus was unremarkable by his own standards. In terms of 35 to 40-minute climbs, Vingegaard’s best-ever performance was ~6.85w/kg for just over 40 minutes on Plateau de Beille. This was Stage 15 of the 2024 Tour de France when Tadej Pogačar did 7w/kg for 39:30. 

Vingegaard – Blockhaus
Time: 39:02
Estimated Average Power: 6.4w/kg
Gee-West: 40:44 at 435w (6.1w/kg)

We use as much power data as possible when calculating these values, but when power data is absent, we estimate the values using a combination of public Strava files, Velon CC data, and our own calculations. Our calculations use a combination of VAM, speed, time, rider weight, and historical data.

After a punchy stage to Fermo, the peloton prepared for another mountain stage before the first rest day. Stage 9 featured 155km of flat roads before a steepening ascent to the finish in Corno all Scale. While the full final climb would last 30 minutes, it was the final 3km that would matter the most. With an average gradient of nearly 10% and maximum of 15%, there would surely be attacks by the climbers and GC contenders. 

Decathlon CMA CGM Team made their intentions clear, pacing throughout the stage to set up an uphill attack by Gall. Giulio Ciccone tried to win from the breakaway, but the leash was too tight, and it was the GC contenders who would fight for the stage. 

Gall attacked almost exactly with 3km to go, and only Vingegaard was able to follow his wheel. The Dane refused to relay, letting Gall do the work for the next 2km. With the chasers more than 30 seconds behind, it was between Gall and Vingegaard for the stage win. 

Was Vingegaard on the ropes? Not at all – the Visma LAB leader attacked with less than a kilometer to go and powered away to the stage win. Gall finished 12 seconds behind, followed by a shocking trio to round out the Top 5: Davide Piganzoli, Thymen Arensman, and GC leader Eulálio. It was one of the best climbing performances of Eulálio’s career, enough to take a 2+ minute lead into Stage 10’s time trial. 

Velon shared Vingegaard’s power data from the final climb; the Dane had averaged 420w for the final seven and a half minutes, just over 7w/kg. Once again, these are great numbers by professional standards, but they are nowhere near Vingegaard’s best-ever performances. 

In 2024 and 2025, Vingegaard has done 7 to 10-minute performances of 7.5-7.7w/kg. While Vingegaard is certainly in control of the Giro, the more relevant question may be whether he has had any reason to go deeper. So far, his race has looked less like a search for career-best numbers than a calculated exercise in doing only what is required.

Vingegaard – Stage 9 Final Climb
Time: 7:30
Estimated Average Power: 7.1w/kg

We use as much power data as possible when calculating these values, but when power data is absent, we estimate the values using a combination of public Strava files, Velon CC data, and our own calculations. Our calculations use a combination of VAM, speed, time, rider weight, and historical data.

Perhaps the biggest shock of the day was that Giulio Pellizzari finished 22nd and lost well over a minute to Vingegaard. The Italian would have been hoping to finish on the GC podium in Rome, but now he is 9th in the General Classification and could fall even further after the Stage 10 time trial. 

The GC standings will reshuffle on Tuesday, and while anything can happen in cycling, Vingegaard will almost certainly take time on his GC rivals bar Arensman. 

We will have to wait until Stage 14 for another major mountain test atop the 16.6km climb to Pila (Gressan). 

Even if the standings remain broadly the same, the question is not simply whether Vingegaard is capable of producing his best climbing numbers. It is whether this Giro will ever require him to. For now, the Dane seems intent on staying in economy mode, taking what he needs while keeping something back for July.