Can anyone beat Pogacar? Analysing the favourites for the 2027 Tour de France

The inclusion of 71km of time trialling may smack of an attempt at Pogačar-proofing the course, but there is precious little that a route designer can do to limit the Slovenian’s dominance or even to engineer suspense. No matter the course, Pogačar is the logical and only favourite for the Tour.

Pogačar was without peer at the past three Tours, scarcely enduring a bad moment, far less a bad day. He is chasing a record sixth overall victory in 2027 and on the evidence of the last three years, there’s little reason to believe he won’t ride into Paris in yellow again next July.

Although Pogačar’s season was ended by his heavy crash at the Vuelta a España, there is no indication that his injuries will compromise his 2027 preparations. At this point, Pogačar looks like his own biggest rival once again, though the doubts over his appetite for Grand Tour racing were surely cast aside in 2026.

UAE carefully dosed out his racing days in the early season to ensure he was mentally fresh for the summer, and one imagines they will take a similar approach in 2027. 

Evenepoel moved to Red Bull with the express aim of winning the Tour during his time at the team, and he can class year one of the collaboration as a success thanks to his exploits last July. Above all, Evenepoel laid to rest any doubts about his aptitude for three-week racing.

After some struggles on the climbs in the spring, Evenepoel opted against June racing, preferring to train expressly for the Tour. The approach paid dividends, as Evenepoel arrived at the Tour at his ideal Grand Tour weight and he improved as the race drew on, winning two stages en route to second place overall.

Evenepoel never looked like beating Pogačar, of course, and he reached Paris more than six minutes down on the champion. The increase in time trialling and reduction in mountaintop finishes should help Evenepoel’s favour in 2027, but he will need to produce something very special indeed just to get into a contest with Pogačar.

The course design makes Evenepoel the most logical challenger to Pogačar at this early juncture, but the new season will tell us more about the Belgian’s prospects.

He hasn’t gone away, you know. Vingegaard has won a Grand Tour in each of the past two seasons, but he again finds himself in the curious position of being written off as a challenger to Pogačar. 

It’s a touch unfair, given that Vingegaard looked on course for second overall on the 2026 Tour before he crashed out on stage 15. That fall ended a remarkable five-year sequence where the Dane and Pogačar had occupied the top two places in the overall standings, but it doesn’t necessarily mark the end of Vingegaard’s Tour ambitions. 

Vingegaard scored a crushing victory at the Giro d’Italia in 2026, and he was also peerless at Paris-Nice and the Volta a Catalunya. Until evidence to the contrary, he clearly remains the best stage race rider in the world after Pogačar. 

However, the increase in time trial miles looks likely to be an impediment to Vingegaard on the 2027 Tour, as does the reduction in successive days of tough climbing. His worst day at the Giro came with a wholly unconvincing display in the Massa time trial, and he will need a return to his 2022-2023 form against the watch if he is to mount a serious challenge.

Given Seixas’ astonishing development across the 2026 campaign, there is every chance he will have elevated himself to the role of Pogačar’s main challenger by the time the Grand Départ in Edinburgh rolls around. 

After placing fourth overall as a 19-year-old debutant last summer, Seixas has every reason to aim higher in 2027, and the manner of his victory at Il Lombardia felt like a statement of intent. The spring will reveal more, and races like Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège should offer a useful gauge on Seixas’ progress relative to Pogačar.

It’s not yet clear, however, if Seixas will even ride the Tour in 2027, even if the course looks well suited to his gifts. The Frenchman has insisted that the World Championships on home roads in the Haute-Savoie is his main target in 2027, and he has floated the idea that he could ride the Giro or Vuelta instead of the Tour.

Much will depend on the ongoing saga of his contract negotiations with Decathlon, but it’s difficult to imagine Seixas forgoing the Tour in 2027.

After coming within a mountain pass of winning the Giro in 2025, Del Toro underlined his credentials by placing a fine third on his Tour debut in 2026. It helped that Pogačar didn’t really need much help from his deluxe domestique across the three weeks, and the Slovenian even took it upon himself to ride to ensure his teammate’s podium finish on stage 20.

Even so, Del Toro was full value for his podium finish, and he has every reason to believe he could match it in 2027, despite the course and the rise of Seixas. 

But it’s not clear if Del Toro will be on the start line at all. He clearly has the ability to win a Grand Tour and so UAE might well be tempted to send him to the Giro as leader while Pogačar focuses on the Tour and, perhaps, a return to the Vuelta. 

Given UAE’s long-established preference for limiting young riders to one Grand Tour per season, that would rule the 23-year-old Del Toro out of a return to the Tour.

It’s easy to forget that Evenepoel started the 2026 Tour as a co-leader at Red Bull, and one imagines the team will continue with a similar, dual-pronged approach this time around. After placing on the podium in 2025, Lipowitz had high ambitions last July and he lay fifth overall – just under a minute off third – when he crashed out in the stage 16 time trial.

Lipowitz hadn’t exactly sparkled at the Tour to that point, but he was again an admirably consistent performer in all of the race’s key rendezvous. Indeed, Lipowitz had been far more reliable than his stablemate Evenepoel in stage races leading up to the Tour, taking podium finishes at the Volta a Catalunya, Itzulia Basque Country and Tour de Romandie before winning the Tour of Slovenia.

The German will lose ground – and perhaps the Red Bull leadership contest – to Evenepoel in the time trials, but if he isn’t hemmed in by team duties, he is a solid bet for another high overall finish in Paris.

We’re cheating here, but until Lidl-Trek announce how they plan on deploying their four potential Grand Tour leaders in 2027, it’s difficult to make a call on where precisely to place them in our power rankings.

Gall, a new arrival from Decathlon, placed on the podium at both the Giro and Vuelta in 2026 and he looks the most reliable of the quartet, but he will be heavily penalised by the 71km of time trialling.

Ayuso was Lidl-Trek’s marquee signing for 2026 and he started with a fine win in the Algarve, but his season was knocked off course by his crash at Paris-Nice. The Spaniard had to settle for seventh at the Tour, behind his teammate Skjelmose, and it’s not clear what that has done to his place in the hierarchy. Still only 24, Ayuso’s potential is enormous, but he is now more than four years removed from his only Grand Tour podium finish, third on the 2022 Vuelta.

A big ride in the Thonon-les-Bains time trial helped Skjelmose into sixth overall on the 2026 Tour. The 26-year-old still has margin for improvement, but progressing as far as the podium of the Tour feels like a stretch, at least in 2027 and against this opposition.

Derek Gee-West rode to fifth overall at the Giro and given his track record in the race, Lidl-Trek might send him there again in 2027. But his aptitude against the watch means he would be a very useful co-leader at a Tour with 71km of time trialling.

What a difference a summer makes. When Mas slumped to an anonymous 32nd overall at the Giro, it looked like his career as a Grand Tour contender was over. Three months later, he had shaken off his tag as a perennial nearly-man by winning the Vuelta.

That Vuelta win is likely to be the crowning moment of Mas’ career, but that doesn’t mean his renaissance won’t continue in 2027. As if to reiterate the point, he finished 2026 with a strong showing at Il Lombardia, taking second behind a rampant Seixas.

Pogačar’s abandon left the door open for Mas to win the Vuelta, but the Spaniard was full value for his victory over the final two weeks, mastering every situation and delivering the time trial display of his life to boot. It remains to be seen if he can replicate that kind of showing in the white heat of July, but he will surely set out from Edinburgh with eyes on matching his fifth-place finish from 2020.

The Scot’s first season at Netcompany-Ineos was blighted by ill fortune, with a series of illnesses and crashes disrupting all momentum in the opening half of the season. A heavy fall at the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes forced him to miss the Tour but he showed flashes of his quality in the latter part of the season.

After winning a stage at the Vuelta a Burgos, Onley headed to the Vuelta a España with designs on a podium finish. The early signs were encouraging, particularly his display on the Alto de Aitana on stage 9, but the lingering effects of a pair of crashes would cost him over the remainder of the race, and he took sixth in Granada as well as the white jersey of best young rider.

The result was a step backwards after Onley’s fine fourth place on the 2025 Tour, but he will draw plenty of lessons from the experience. Still only 24, he remains a work in progress and he will be the clear figurehead for Ineos in July as they look to rebuild themselves as a force at the Tour.

Paul Seixas understandably drew all the attention in his native France, but Martinez quietly enjoyed a fine 2026 season, capped by the best Grand Tour display of his young career. He took fifth overall at the Tour, where – encouragingly – he seemed to grow stronger as the race drew on.

Martinez had already given indications of his form at the Tour de Suisse, where he almost fended off a rampant Pogačar at Villars-sur-Ollon, and he had also been hugely consistent across the spring, taking fifth and a stage at Paris-Nice, second at the Volta a Catalunya and third at the Tour de Romandie.

The 23-year-old has usurped Antonio Tiberi as Bahrain’s leading man in the three-week Tours and he will surely make July the target once again in 2027, even if the 71km of time trialling will not play to his strengths. 

Richard Carapaz (NSN) was typically aggressive in 2026, rising to eighth overall thanks to surge in the final week that yielded two stage wins and the king of the mountains jersey. It will be fascinating to see if he changes his approach at his new team and makes the GC an express target.

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5) placed ninth overall in 2026 on the back of a truncated build-up and without ever fully committing to a tilt at the GC. He will find plenty to like amid the punchy stages on the 2027 route, and he has already shown his Grand Tour credentials by placing on the podium of the Vuelta in 2025.

Primož Roglič has yet to decide on his 2027 team, or even if he will keep racing for another year. If he continues, then the volume of time trialling on the course would surely tempt him back to the Tour after missing the race altogether in 2026. Old dreams die hard.

After an ill-starred debut season at Movistar, Cian Uijtdebroeks will hope for better in 2027. Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility) had to settle for 12th overall in 2026, but the Norwegian will hope to replicate his fifth-place finish from the previous year, even if the time trial-heavy route isn’t to his liking.