Can Pogacar break Pantani's 31-year-old Alpe d'Huez record?

Even in the analogue age, climbing times were already an obsession at Alpe d’Huez. When the Tour de France visited in 1987, the peloton slept in hotels at the summit before descending by car for the following day’s start in Bourg d’Oisans. As they made their way down the mountain, they came across amateur riders of varying abilities riding against them, grimly battling against the 21 hairpins.

In the RMO team car, directeur sportif Bernard Thevenet explained their motivation to Paul Kimmage. “They’re timing themselves,” Thevenet told him. “They know exactly how long it took the leaders to climb it yesterday, and tonight they will compare times and work out how many pros they’d have beaten on the stage.”

The stopwatches will be out again on July 24, when the Tour de France returns to Alpe d’Huez for the first time since 2022. And there will be greater anticipation than normal among the amateur timekeepers. After supersonic climbing displays at the Tour de Suisse and Giro d’Italia, there is the distinct possibility that Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard might establish a new record time for the ascent.

The record holder is the late Marco Pantani, even if there have long been conflicting reports as to whether his best time was set in 1995 or 1997. The confusion arose, it seems, from precisely where one decides to start the clock, but the consensus is that his 1995 effort – reported as 36:40 by L’Équipe and the Climbing Records website – produced the quicker time.

In any case, the three fastest times on the Alpe all belong to Pantani – 36:40 in 1995, 36:53 in 1997 and 37:15 on his first attempt in 1994. For three decades, his times have seemed to be beyond the reach of all comers, like Florence Griffith-Joyner’s 100m world record.

The fourth quickest time recorded, after all, was set by one Lance Armstrong in a mountain time trial in 2004. That victory was expunged from the record books in 2012 when Armstrong was banned for life for doping throughout his sequence of Tour victories, but even his time was still almost a minute shy of Pantani’s best.

As the 21st century drew on, there was a growing sense that the stratospheric climbing times from the 1990s – i.e. from before the introduction of a test for EPO – were simply beyond the reach of riders operating in the biological passport era.

Bike technology and road conditions may have been improving, but times on Alpe d’Huez seemed to be slowing. Floyd Landis clocked 38:35 in 2006, while Carlos Sastre’s Tour-winning attack two years later was timed at 39:30.

The Tour’s visit in 2011 came at the end of a short but explosive stage over the Galibier, and the quickest time on the ascent was set by Samuel Sanchez, who went up in 41:25. Nairo Quintana went inside 40 minutes in 2013 and 2015, but when Geraint Thomas won in yellow on the Alpe in 2018, his time was an unremarkable 41:15.

Pogačar and Vingegaard’s lone tilt at Alpe d’Huez came on the 2022 Tour, when Tom Pidcock won the stage from the break. On the day after the epochal Col du Granon stage, Pogačar and Vingegaard played out a score draw on the upper slopes of the Alpe, which they climbed with Thomas in 39:08, marking the fastest ascent since Landis in 2006. Something had clearly changed.

The lie of the land in pro cycling has been shifting further in the intervening period, with hitherto untouchable climbing records now being dismantled seemingly as a matter of routine. 

Two years ago, for instance, Pogačar destroyed Pantani’s record mark on Plateau de Beille, scorching up the 15.9km climb some 3:30 quicker than the Italian did back in 1998. Vingegaard, second on the stage, was still 2:30 faster than Pantani, while Remco Evenepoel was also 40 seconds inside his time.

A large degree of caution is advised when comparing times on mountain passes from different eras. The wind conditions and the racing circumstances are often different, of course, and improvements in equipment can account for some differences too. It’s an interesting guide rather than an exact science.

But even with all those factors considered, the general direction of travel among the very elite of the pro peloton seems to be clear. Cycling is getting faster and faster. 

The leap in the 2020s is not unlike the one made in the 1990s. In the 1980s, the best riders on Alpe d’Huez typically posted times well north of 40 minutes. Even in 1992, Miguel Indurain and Claudio Chiappucci clocked 43:19, while winner Andy Hampsten went up in 44:09. Within three years, Pantani had danced up the Alpe some seven minutes quicker than Hampsten. 

Last year, Pogačar smashed Iban Mayo’s 2004 record at Mont Ventoux. This year, he set a new record on the Cipressa at Milan-Sanremo despite crashing shortly before the foot of the climb, and he would also set a new quickest mark on the Côte de la Redoute at Liège-Bastogne-Liège a month later.

At the Giro in May, Vingegaard beat Pantani’s 1998 record on Piancavallo on the final weekend of the race. At the end of an arduous final stage of the Tour de Suisse, Pogačar cruised up the final climb to Villars-sur-Ollon some 43 seconds quicker than Egan Bernal did in a mountain time trial back in 2018.

It all points to some dizzying climbing times at this Tour, with Pantani’s Alpe d’Huez record seemingly under real threat. The Tour visits Alpe d’Huez on successive days this year, but the second trip, on stage 20, sees the race climb by way of the Col de Sarenne.

The classic Alpe d’Huez ascent – 13.8km at 8.1% from Bourg d’Oisans – comes on stage 19. In theory, the residual fatigue of almost three weeks of racing should temper the climbing times, but the stage is a short one at 127km, while the terrain beforehand isn’t the most arduous. 

The category 2 Col Bayard and category 1 Col du Noyer come early in the stage before a long section of valley road. The category 2 Col d’Ornon serves as a prologue to the final haul up the Alpe, which looks destined to produce a shoot-out among the men still vying for the yellow jersey.

The expectation is that Pogačar and Vingegaard will be the last men standing, though there is the added intrigue of Seixas’ Tour debut to consider. But whatever names are involved, all evidence leans towards it producing one of the most high-octane Alpe finales in the history of the Tour. The supersonic 2020s haven't yet reached their apotheosis.