Five storylines to watch in the Giro’s third week as Vingegaard closes in on history

As Derek Gee-West put it ahead of stage 15, the Giro is still the Giro. “It’s the Giro. There’s always going to be some exciting racing in the third week.”

History backs him up. The Giro rarely lets its final week pass quietly.

We only have to think back to last year’s drama on the Finestre, where Simon Yates capitalised on the South American stand off between Richard Carapaz and Isaac Del Toro to change the complexion of the race.

Or to 2016, when Steven Kruijswijk looked almost untouchable until the Colle dell’Agnello turned his Giro dream into a nightmare, his lead disappearing into the snow walls on one of the most brutal days in recent memory.

The 2018 edition still feels just as vivid. Simon Yates had been the strongest rider in the race, only to crack completely on the Finestre, the very climb where he would later find redemption. That collapse opened the door for Chris Froome, who seized the Giro with one of the most audacious long range solos the race has seen.

And then there was 2023, when Primož Roglič ripped the maglia rosa from Geraint Thomas on the penultimate day in the Monte Lussari time trial, even after his chain came off on the climb. It was pure Giro theatre, chaos and drama packed into one final ascent.

So while the standings may look increasingly settled on paper, the race itself is not always so obedient. Over the past decade, the maglia rosa has changed shoulders in the final week no fewer than six times. 

With that in mind, there is still plenty to look out for as the Giro heads into its decisive days.

The bookmakers no longer see it slipping away. With odds of 1.03, Jonas Vingegaard is being treated as the all but certain winner of this Giro. And it is easy to understand why. He holds a lead of two and a half minutes, looks completely in control, and is backed by a Visma | Lease a Bike team that has impressed with its strength in depth.

At this point, it feels as though only bad luck or illness can truly disrupt his path to Rome.

If nothing goes wrong, Vingegaard is not just heading towards Giro victory. He is heading towards a place in cycling history. Earlier in this race, he already joined the select group of riders with stage wins in all three Grand Tours, a club of 115 names. He has also now worn leader’s jerseys in all three Grand Tours, a distinction shared by only 26 riders.

The next milestone is the biggest one of all: overall victory in all three Grand Tours. Only seven riders have ever managed it. So far, that achievement has been reserved for Jacques Anquetil, Alberto Contador, Chris Froome, Felice Gimondi, Bernard Hinault, Eddy Merckx and Vincenzo Nibali.

Vingegaard is now one week away from adding his name to that list. The main question is no longer whether he can finish the job, but how much shine he wants to add to it. At Monday’s press conference, the Dane made it clear that he would like to win at least one more stage in the pink jersey, and that he already has a specific one in mind. 

Between the lines, however, there was also a sense that the Tour de France is already starting to enter his thoughts.

So one more kiss to the handlebars, one more kiss of the ring, may well be the image still to come before Vingegaard writes himself into cycling’s history books.

Behind Vingegaard, the race remains far more open. Over the past few days, GC contenders such as Felix Gall and Derek Gee-West have already made clear that this is now the battle they need to focus on.

Vingegaard himself said on Monday’s press conference that, in his view, Gall looks like the best of the rest.

“At this moment, it seems that Felix Gall is a little bit stronger than the other guys. At least he’s dropped them on all the uphill finishes so far. So, for this moment, he seems like he’s very, very strong,” he said.

Given that Gall has repeatedly looked like the second strongest rider on the climbs, and taking the current time gaps into account, the Austrian appears to be in pole position to finish as best of the rest. Still, it would be dangerous to rule out anyone down to tenth place, currently occupied by Davide Piganzoli. The gap between Piganzoli and second placed Afonso Eulálio is 3.47, and with the stages still to come, plenty can still change.

Predicting how it will play out is anything but straightforward. Traditionally, Thymen Arensman of Netcompany Ineos should be able to rely on a strong final week. Jai Hindley, Ben O’Connor and Derek Gee-West, meanwhile, are all experienced and resilient Grand Tour riders who should know how to pace themselves through the final days.

The biggest questions are elsewhere. How far has Giulio Pellizzari recovered from illness, and how high can his level still reach? And how much freedom will Davide Piganzoli be given to improve his own position, given his responsibilities in support of Vingegaard?

There is also an intriguing Australian subplot. Never before have three Australians finished inside the top ten of the same Grand Tour. With Hindley, O’Connor and Gee-West all still in the mix, the question is not just whether that record can be broken, but who will finish highest.

“It suits a sprinter more, and those are just the rules of the game. But if we can do it, then why not?” Joxean Matxin Fernandez told Domestique this weekend.

Before the Giro, Jhonatan Narváez was not mentioned in any serious discussion around the maglia ciclamino. But a disastrous start for UAE Team Emirates-XRG changed everything. After the loss of GC leader Adam Yates, the Emirati squad went all in on stage wins, and with considerable success.

Narváez has won three stages, while Igor Arrieta has also taken a victory for the team.

Those wins have carried Narváez deep into the points classification, turning what once looked like an accidental side story into a genuine objective.

He enters the final week of the Giro just 14 points behind Paul Magnier, who won two stages during the Grande Partenza. UAE had expected Magnier’s advantage to be greater after the Milan stage, but Fredrik Dversnes and his breakaway companions changed the picture completely. Because Magnier could only sprint for fifth place rather than the stage win, he added 15 points instead of 50. Suddenly, the door remained open.

The route now gives Narváez one last chance to make the unlikely happen. From Tuesday to Friday, the intermediate sprint comes at a point in the stage where it is far from certain that Magnier will still be in a position to contest it. For Narváez, with the right tactics, those sprints could be within reach, with a maximum of 48 points available across the four days.

On top of that, the Ecuadorian should also have a chance to finish high on the stage on Wednesday, where 25 points are available to the winner, and again on Thursday, where the winner takes 50 points.

Saturday looks more favourable for Magnier, with the intermediate sprint placed in terrain that should be manageable for the Frenchman. And then, of course, comes Sunday in Rome. That is where Magnier will expect to make the difference, with one final sprint stage and another 50 points on offer.

So both riders still have chances, but with the days that remain, the terrain tilts more towards Narváez.

The third week of the Giro is set up for a fascinating battle for the maglia bianca, one that also runs straight through the general classification. Three of the ten riders currently inside the top ten are still eligible for the young rider standings, giving that contest extra weight.

Eulálio has become one of the revelations of this race. The Portuguese Bahrain Victorious rider already made his mark in the opening week, but in week two he proved that his position is no coincidence. Even after surrendering pink to Jonas Vingegaard, he held firm, defending both his podium spot and his lead in the youth standings.

But the fight is far from over. Giulio Pellizzari sits less than two minutes behind and remains a serious threat, despite struggling with illness. The Italian from Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe has shown he can survive difficult moments, and if his condition improves, the race could still turn in his favour.

Behind that duel, Davide Piganzoli and Mathys Rondel are waiting in the shadows. Piganzoli sits 3.43 down and has impressed in almost every mountain stage so far. As with the wider GC battle, the main question is whether he will be given the freedom to chase this opportunity, or whether his role in support of Vingegaard will continue to take priority.

Rondel, meanwhile, has also looked steady whenever the road has gone uphill and sits just three quarters of a minute behind Piganzoli.

So far, this has been a Giro dominated by the insatiable few, with Jonathan Narváez and Jonas Vingegaard each taking three stage wins. UAE have also added another victory through Igor Arrieta, while XDS Astana have been highly successful too, claiming three stages through Silva, Ballerini and Bettiol.

As a result, the first 15 stages have been won by just seven teams, meaning there are still 16 teams chasing a stage victory. That will almost certainly shape the dynamic of the final week, with riders and teams increasingly motivated to go on the attack.

Combined with the demanding parcours, this should lead to a highly aggressive third week. Long, intense opening phases are likely to keep the race fast, limit the advantage of any early move and bring the favourites into play, without one team needing to control everything from kilometre zero.

Those storylines will ultimately have to play out on the road, and the route gives the riders very little time to ease back in.

The third and final week of the Giro d’Italia offers no gentle reintroduction after the rest day. Instead, the riders are immediately thrown back into the mountains with a short but explosive stage to Carì, where the final 11.8km climb at 8% could reignite the fight for the maglia rosa. 

With two earlier loops featuring the climbs to Torre and Leontica, fatigue will already be building before one of the race’s toughest summit finishes.

Stage 17 offers a different kind of test. At 202km, the road to Andalo will be a long day in the saddle, and although the climbing is not as brutal as what follows later in the week, the uphill finale could still invite attacks. 

It may be a day for the breakaway if the GC favourites decide to save their legs, but the finale also gives punchy climbers and fast finishers a chance to take advantage.

The sprinters get what looks like a rare opportunity on stage 18 to Pieve di Soligo, but even that stage comes with a sting. The route is largely rolling rather than mountainous, yet the late Muro di Ca’ del Poggio, crested less than 10km from the finish, could disrupt any plans for a straightforward bunch sprint. 

A strong breakaway could use that climb as a launchpad, while some fast men may find themselves distanced at the worst possible moment.

Then comes the queen stage. Stage 19 from Feltre to Alleghe is the hardest day of the 2026 Giro, with more than 5,000 metres of elevation gain across a brutal sequence of Dolomite climbs. The riders will tackle the Passo Duran, Forcella Staulanza, Passo Giau and Passo Falzarego before the final uphill drag to Piani di Pezzè. 

The Passo Giau, this year’s Cima Coppi at 2,305 metres, is the headline climb and could be the place where the Giro is won or lost. Any weakness here could be punished with huge time gaps.

The final GC decisions should come on stage 20, a 200km mountain stage to Piancavallo. The first half of the route is relatively gentle compared with what follows, but the race should explode when the riders tackle Piancavallo twice. 

The first ascent will almost serve as a rehearsal, before a long valley section leads into the final climb, where the fate of the pink jersey could be sealed. Coming just 24 hours after the queen stage, this will test recovery and resilience as much as pure climbing strength.

Finally, the Giro concludes in Rome with the now familiar city circuit. By then, the general classification should be settled, allowing the overall contenders to celebrate before the sprinters take centre stage one last time. 

A breakaway will dream of spoiling the party, but with one final Grand Tour stage win on offer, the smart money will be on a bunch sprint in the Italian capital.