Analysis

Giro’s wildest day yet fails to knock Vingegaard off his stride

It was a day where just about everything happened, but Jonas Vingegaard and his Visma | Lease a Bike still didn't have to expend any more energy than was strictly necessary on a dramatic and arduous stage 5 to Potenza.

Jonas Vingegaard rain Giro 2026
Cor Vos

Jonas Vingegaard remains the overwhelming favourite to wear the pink jersey in Rome, and this race might yet turn into a procession like the one enjoyed by his old sparring partner Tadej Pogacar two years ago, but stage 5 to Potenza was a timely reminder that just about anything can happen at the Giro d’Italia. 

This day of driving rain and rugged roads in Calabria and Basilicata had a little bit of everything: good and bad, ugly and absurd. The bizarre finale was, of course, the headline act. Igor Arrieta overcame a crash and a wrong turn to win a stage he looked to have lost. Afonso Eulálio crashed and lost a stage he had almost won, but he still claimed the pink jersey he so thoroughly deserved.

But there were other stories tumbling into focus throughout the day. Mathys Rondel (Tudor) crashed through the rear windscreen of a team car, for instance, but he still finished alongside the general classification men. Giulio Ciccone endured the disappointment of losing his pink jersey after just one day, hamstrung by the limitations of a Lidl-Trek team built largely around Jonathan Milan’s sprint hopes.

And, at various points, this risked becoming a day that might have spiralled beyond anyone’s control, like the notorious and similarly rain-soaked stage to L’Aquila in 2010 that put Richie Porte into an unexpected pink jersey and put the unheralded David Arroyo within touching distance of a shock Giro win.

Perhaps that fear explained Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe’s willingness to lead the chase effort in the peloton ahead of the main difficulty, the long climb to Viggiano. On a day of such confusion, however, maybe it was only fitting that the strategy of Giulio Pellizzarri’s squad wasn’t entirely coherent. 

After expending all that energy, Aleksandr Vlasov et al knocked off their pace on the climb itself for reasons that weren’t immediately clear, though perhaps it was the realisation that the move’s dangerman, Einer Rubio (Movistar), was struggling out in front. The Colombian, who started the day 10 seconds off the pink jersey, would lose 17 minutes by day’s end.

Red Bull might have felt compelled to spring into action in the first place due to Lidl-Trek’s inability to keep a lid on the break’s advantage. Once Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier’s long shift on the front had ended, Ciccone was without teammates to help his pink jersey defence.

“We expected something like this because they have Derek Gee and Ciccone as the leaders and they have only one other climber, Matteo Sobrero, but he was not there, I think,” Vlasov told reporters when he reached in Potenza, one of the very few riders without chattering teeth when he rolled to a halt in the finish area.

Both Red Bull and Visma | Lease a Bike had placed riders in the break when it first went clear, with Gianni Moscon representing Pellizzari and Victor Campenaerts on hand for Visma. But it was striking that Visma were happy to maintain a watching brief rather than a controlling one, in keeping with the tenor of their Giro to date.

On stage 4 to Cosenza, Vingegaard and Visma had been content to let Movistar take up the reins and split the bunch on the climb of Cozzo Tunno. Here, they were happy to allow Lidl-Trek and Red Bull to dictate the terms and they showed nary a flicker of concern when the pace in the bunch dropped, and the break’s lead extended to six minutes.

In the overall standings, Vingegaard is now 15th overall, 6:22 off the new pink jersey Eulálio, but that deficit won’t worry the Dane in the slightest at this early juncture. Indeed, it might even give his team an additional ally of circumstance in Bahrain Victorious in the days ahead. 

There is widespread expectation that Vingegaard will go on the offensive on the Blockhaus on stage 7. Now he can potentially put significant time into his principal rivals there while also avoiding the burden of taking the pink jersey so early in the race. 

But that’s all hypothetical at this juncture. In the here and now, Visma’s aim was to make it through the stage without suffering any ambushes and without expending any more energy than was strictly necessary. 

“We’re happy to have come through the day safely,” sports director Marc Reef said afterwards. “It was an extreme stage because of the weather conditions and the demanding route.”

Vingegaard was even more succinct, riding through the finish area without stopping and making directly for his team bus. “Straight to the shower,” he said by way of explanation to the TV crews waiting for him outside.

The Giro threw up the kind of stage that only the Giro can, and it will have an impact on many in the days ahead. But the race shows no sign of knocking Vingegaard off his stride just yet.

Tadej Pogacar - 2025 - Tour de France stage 12

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