'He wants to put him in a coffin' - Valgren expects Pogacar to target Vingegaard mentally as EF chase Tour breakthrough

The EF Education-EasyPost riders began by looking at the defining battle of the Tour, with Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard once again setting the tone at the front of the race. 

Valgren believes the rivalry is no longer only about seconds and stage results. In his view, Pogačar may also be trying to gain a lasting psychological advantage over the Dane.

“To the media, Pogi [Pogačar] is happy and all that,” Valgren said. “But I think he’s kind of holding a grudge against Jonas. He wants to put him in a coffin, at least mentally.”

Valgren pointed to the upcoming terrain as the type of stage on which Vingegaard had previously managed to hurt his rival. With Pogačar now in control, he expects UAE Team Emirates to use that history as added motivation.

“I think they’re going to go all out and try to bury Jonas once more, to really cook him mentally,” Valgren said. “It’s almost as if Pogačar is thinking: ‘This was the last time he beat me, but now I’m going to beat him even more emphatically.’ That’s my kind of fear for tomorrow.”

For EF, however, the focus is less on the battle for yellow and more on finding a way into the right breakaway. The team has been one of the most visible attacking forces through the opening nine days, but has yet to convert that aggression into a stage victory.

“We need a stage win,” Valgren said. “That’s pretty obvious. That’s what we’re here for. At least one.”

That ambition has guided EF from the start. Rather than waiting for one specific opportunity, the team has tried to place a rider in every breakaway with a realistic chance of reaching the finish.

“It’s pretty clear that we’ve got some good legs here at the Tour and we’re taking every opportunity we can get,” Healy said. “One of our goals coming into the race was that every breakaway that makes it to the line, we have to be in it. So far, we’ve done that. I think it’s only a matter of time before one of us puts our hands in the air.”

The strategy has regularly placed EF at the front of the race and given several riders the chance to compete for a result. The performances have offered encouragement, but Valgren was clear that visibility and attacking intent alone would not be enough.

“I wouldn’t say it’s been a successful Tour if we stop now, but it also wouldn't be the worst,” he said.

EF’s hopes rest on the collective strength of a squad built for unpredictable racing. Valgren believes the team may lack the individual dominance of some rivals, but makes up for it through depth, commitment and a willingness to work together.

“Maybe if you look at each of us as an individual, we’re not the strongest,” he said. “But as a group, I think we are probably the best breakaway team that’s here.”

The extreme heat has made that task significantly harder. Valgren said he had never experienced such a prolonged period of high temperatures during the Tour, with nine consecutive days above 35 degrees.

Ben Healy has been particularly open about the effect the conditions have had on his performances. The Irishman described racing in the heat as a major weakness, despite extensive preparation and the team’s cooling strategy.

“It’s such a big Achilles heel for me,” Healy said. “I’m just not one hundred percent sharp at the moment, and at the Tour de France you have to be.”

Healy said the form was there, but that repeated hard efforts in the heat caused his performance to deteriorate quickly. Once his heart rate rose beyond a certain point, recovery became difficult, particularly during the frantic battle to establish a breakaway.

Healy believes the heat is widening the gaps between the Tour’s leading contenders.

“When the conditions are extreme, it just exaggerates the gap between the better riders,” he said.

EF will hope cooler weather creates more opportunities during the remaining stages. Richard Carapaz remains a possible threat in the mountains, while riders including Healy, Valgren, Sean Quinn and Alex Baudin give the team several options for breakaways.

Carapaz may have been relatively quiet so far, but Healy and Valgren warned against reading too much into his opening week.

“You can just expect the unexpected from Richie a lot of the time,” Healy said.

For EF, the equation is now straightforward. Keep attacking, stay represented when the decisive breaks form and trust that one opportunity will eventually become a victory.

As Valgren put it, once the team finally breaks through, the belief could quickly produce more.

Listen to the full Hotseat episode with Ben Healy and Michael Valgren 👇