Human after all: What does Van der Poel's E3 win mean for the Tour of Flanders?

Wout van Aert knew the feeling in 2023, when he outsprinted Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar, but only after hanging on for dear life over the Paterberg. Back in 2014, Peter Sagan faced something of an inquisition about his Tour of Flanders prospects in the Harelbeke press room after he had betrayed signs of struggling on the Oude Kwaremont. 

In both instances, the doubts were justified, with Van Aert and Sagan each soundly defeated at the Tour of Flanders a week after their triumphs in Harelbeke. 

What to make, then, of Van der Poel’s Ronde chances after his unexpectedly dramatic E3 Saxo Classic victory on Friday? 

On the one hand, Van der Poel demonstrated his strength with the smoothness of his acceleration on the Taaienberg and he showcased the scope of his ambition by pressing on alone over the Boigneberg with some 63km still to race.

But in doing so, Van der Poel flew too close to the sun. In hindsight, the check engine light was already on amber on the Paterberg, where Van der Poel took a touch longer than anticipated to shake off early escapee Stan Dewulf. 

By the time Alpecin-Premier Tech sports director Christoph Roodhooft was driving alongside Van der Poel to provide him with energy gels, it was clear that the Dutchman had ventured into the red. 

This was no longer a pre-Ronde flex or a message to Tadej Pogačar ahead of their duel on the Kwaremont next weekend. Van der Poel was now in energy-saving mode, desperately trying to maintain enough forward momentum to make it to Harelbeke before Pogačar’s top Ronde domestique Florian Vermeersch caught him. 

Vermeersch and the chasers’ sudden hesitance in the final kilometre ultimately helped Van der Poel to dredge up a win that looked to have sunk, but their questionable decision-making was only a part of the equation. 

Even as Van der Poel’s strength was blunted in the finale, his thinking remained sharp. Realising he would cramp up in the event of a sprint, he elected not to sit up and wait even when the chasers closed to within 20 metres. He called their bluff, and that split-second call made all the difference. Van der Poel clung on to win by three seconds. 

Expectations have been skewed completely in the supersonic 2020s, where every other week seems to bring a metronomic solo exhibition from a grandee of the peloton, but finding a way to win even in straightened circumstances like this has always been the calling card of the champion. 

Think Alberto Contador’s ability to win Grand Tours even when he wasn’t necessarily the strongest man in the race, Sean Kelly upsetting the odds against a rampant Moreno Argentin at the 1992 Milan-Sanremo, or Bernard Hinault willing his way home at the 1985 Tour de France.

Van der Poel’s salvage operation here falls into that tradition, and when he eventually calls time on his career, this Harelbeke victory will probably be recalled more readily and more fondly than his crushing wins in 2024 and 2025.

But in the here and now, the manner of Van der Poel’s victory hardly augurs well for the Tour of Flanders. Coming on the back of a disappointing Milan-Sanremo, where he was dropped by Pogačar’s onslaught at the foot of the Poggio, it would seem to indicate that Van der Poel isn’t quite as strong as he needs to be in order to trouble the Slovenian at the Ronde.

There was mitigation at Sanremo, of course, given that Van der Poel suffered a finger injury in his crash before the Cipressa, though he downplayed its impact when he spoke to reporters in the press room in Harelbeke on Friday evening. “I think it’s more a thing of the legs than the hands,” he said.

The questions about Van der Poel’s legs will continue after his misfire. Speaking to Sporza, former Belgian national coach José De Cauwer questioned why Van der Poel had felt the need to strike out alone so early. “I think this involves unnecessary effort and risks,” he said.

It may be the case, however, that Van der Poel saw the effort as necessary. E3 is a prestigious prize in its own right, but it’s also the key dress rehearsal for the Tour of Flanders. Van der Poel might have been looking for reassurance ahead of that contest with Pogačar by going from distance here.

In any case, Visma | Lease a Bike directeur sportif Arthur van Dongen warned against drawing too many conclusions from Harelbeke. In his view, the strength and (initial) cohesion of the chasers and the nature of the parcours was a bigger factor in how events unfolded than any failing on the part of Van der Poel.

“Everyone said, ‘Oh, weakness from Van der Poel,’ but this was no weakness of Van der Poel,” Van Dongen told Domestique. “This was the situation in the race, with still a very big group behind Van der Poel. And from the Karnemelkbeekstraat, it’s still a long way to the final, and on long straight roads, with crosswinds and sometimes headwinds. That meant that in the end, Mathieu was almost caught – but this was no weakness of Van der Poel.”

Perhaps there were simply shades of Pogačar at last year’s Amstel Gold Race about Van der Poel’s outing here. Back then, Pogačar overestimated his strength and underestimated the wind conditions when he struck out alone from distance, and a determined chase from Remco Evenepoel meant that victory would unexpectedly fall to Mattias Skjelmose.

Unlike Pogačar, Van der Poel had the considerable consolation of saving the victory. And now, like Pogačar in the Ardennes last year, he will hope to shrug off the misstep before the main event next weekend.

For the rest of the peloton, meanwhile, it was a welcome reminder that the so-called ‘aliens’ of the Classics are occasionally human after all.