Nibali not convinced by Vingegaard yet: 'I expect much more from him'

“Vingegaard remains the favourite and will most likely win,” Nibali told Gazzetta dello Sport. “But the Giro is not completely closed yet. In fact, it is open. And I expect much more from him.”

That is not to say Vingegaard has underperformed. On paper, his race has been close to flawless. Two summit finishes, two victories. On Blockhaus and Corno alle Scale, he did what a rider of his status is supposed to do.

Yet Nibali has seen enough Grand Tours to know that victories do not always tell the full story. Against Felix Gall in particular, Vingegaard has not managed to create the kind of gap that shuts down a race. He has looked strong, but not untouchable.

“He did what he had to do,” the two time Giro winner said. “But especially compared with Gall, he did not really make the difference.”

Another moment stood out to Nibali. On the second mountain finish at Corno alle Scale, Vingegaard let Gall do the work before taking the stage win. Nibali did not overstate the point, but he did suggest it touched on one of cycling’s unwritten rules.

“In cycling’s unwritten rules, those are things you should not do,” he said. “But wins are wins. They count, and it is right to take them when you can.”

The time trial did not change Nibali’s view. If anything, he felt the long distance made it a test that was always going to be difficult for Vingegaard to dominate. More than flat 40 kilometres and nearly 50 minutes of effort made it a very different challenge from a shorter, more demanding race against the clock.

Still, Nibali expects the defining moments to come now. The Giro enters the part of the race where weather, fatigue and recovery can matter as much as watts. That, he says, is what separates May from July.

“The unpredictability exists at the Tour and the Vuelta too, of course,” Nibali said. “But at the Giro it is greater, starting with the weather. Cold and bad weather take much more out of a rider. If you catch a virus and your team is not at its best, then good luck handling 200 kilometres up and down the mountains.”

That is why Nibali stops short of calling the race over.

“Vingegaard has not yet landed the five or six minute blow that locks the Giro away,” he said. “I do not think it will slip from his hands, but you should never take anything for granted.”

What Nibali would like to see now is something bigger. “I would like him to produce a Vingegaard style exploit before the end of the Giro,” Nibali said. 

“One big, long show. I know he also has the Tour and the challenge with Pogačar ahead, so it is understandable if he tries to gain a little every day and win that way. But I hope for something else.”

If Vingegaard is still the man to beat, Nibali sees Felix Gall as the first real danger from here. The Austrian has stayed closest to him on the climbs so far, and Nibali believes he still has a real chance to shape the final week.

“Gall can surprise,” Nibali said. “There are no more kilometres against the clock and now his terrain is coming. In the mountains so far, he has only lost to Vingegaard. He has a strong team and a big opportunity.”