Nibali believes Vingegaard won't follow Pogacar's 2024 Giro blueprint

Speaking to La Gazzetta dello Sport at the presentation of the 2026 Maglia Rosa, Vincenzo Nibali confirmed the general consensus on who stands out as the clear frontrunner for overall victory.

“On paper, Jonas Vingegaard is the favourite,” he said.

The Italian, however, was quick to warn about the unpredictability of the Giro d’Italia. “But the Giro always brings surprises. You can never take anything for granted.”

Over the years, the Giro has built a reputation for late drama and unexpected twists, often reshaping the general classification in its final stages. Just think back to last year, when Isaac del Toro lost the leader’s jersey to Simon Yates in a nail biting showdown on the Colle delle Finestre, after a tense stalemate between the Mexican and Richard Carapaz.

Nibali himself was part of a dramatic twist in 2016, when he capitalised on Steven Kruijswijk’s crash in the infamous snowbanks on the way to Risoul during stage 19. For Nibali, that unpredictability is precisely what defines the Giro.

“It is also where new stars are born,” he explained. “We have seen it many times in recent years. Even when there is a clear leader going in, the race can change completely.”

Vingegaard arrives with the strongest credentials, but Vincenzo Nibali does not expect a carbon copy of Tadej Pogačar’s dominant 2024 Giro d’Italia campaign. The Slovenian wasted no time asserting his authority, winning six stages and wearing the leader’s jersey for 19 days, before going on to claim the Tour de France two months later.

From Vingegaard, Nibali expects a more measured approach.

“I think Vingegaard will try to make a difference early, especially on the first summit finishes,” Nibali said, pointing to key stages such as Blockhaus. “After that, it will depend on how much time he gains. He might then focus on controlling the race.”

That strategy, however, comes with a caveat. Managing a three week race requires a significant advantage and a strong team capable of maintaining control.

“If the gap is not big enough, the race can become very difficult to manage,” Nibali warns. “Without control, breakaways can go, and the race can become unpredictable day after day.”

With that, Nibali also suggests, like many others, that Vingegaard will aim to win the Giro as efficiently as possible, conserving as much energy as he can for his showdown with Pogačar at the Tour de France.

Beyond the main frontrunner, Vincenzo Nibali highlighted the emergence of Italian talent, singling out Giulio Pellizzari as a rider to watch. After steady progression and an impressive showing at last year’s Vuelta a España, expectations are growing.

“He has real talent,” Nibali said. “He is improving step by step. This year, I think his goal can be a top three.”

Pellizzari has recently strengthened that case with victory at the Tour of the Alps, along with a strong performance at Tirreno Adriatico.

Nibali, however, cautioned that in a Grand Tour the challenge is not only physical, but also mental. He emphasised the importance of managing energy across all three weeks, particularly in the decisive final stretch.

“Last year, you could see the fatigue in the final week,” he noted. “At the Giro, the last week is crucial. That is where the race really becomes decisive.”

And that is the point Nibali ultimately returns to. “At the Giro, nothing is ever decided until the very end.”