Oscar Onley learns the Pogacar lesson the hard way after costly Vuelta gamble

Oscar Onley became the latest name on that list during stage six of the Vuelta a España.

For a brief moment on the final climb towards Castelló, the Netcompany-Ineos leader appeared capable of doing what most of the peloton has learned not to try. When Pogacar accelerated on the gravel, Onley reacted. He held the wheel longer than most and, when the race briefly came back together, he was still willing to respond when the red jersey turned up the pressure again.

It looked ambitious and it was certainly brave, but it also proved expensive.

By the time Onley crossed the finish line, the damage was considerable. He finished 12th, 1 minute and 38 seconds behind stage winner Pogačar, dropping from fifth to seventh overall. More immediately, his advantage in the young rider classification was reduced to only three seconds over Ramses Debruyne.

Onley knew exactly where it had gone wrong.

“It was pretty hard. The gravel went on for longer than I thought it would,” he said after the stage to the media team of La Vuelta. “I probably just overcooked here a little bit and paid the price towards the top I think.”

Once the initial effort caught up with him, there was little opportunity to recover. Onley was already around 50 seconds down by the summit and chose not to take unnecessary risks on the descent. With a headwind waiting on the road towards the finish, he was relieved when a group containing Mattias Skjelmose and Sepp Kuss eventually reached him.

Even then, his body had little left to offer.

“To be honest, I didn’t want to be alone for the headwinds to the finish, so when I saw Skjelmose and Kuss’s group come up to me I was quite relieved,” Onley explained. “I tried to pull with them and then I just started getting cramps so I was useless.”

The irony will not have been lost on Ineos.

Only days earlier, Netcompany-Ineos Director of Racing Geraint Thomas had explained why trying to match Pogačar can be the wrong decision, even for riders who are competing for the general classification. Discussing Pogačar's long range attack in Andorra on the Watts Occurring podcast, Thomas argued that there comes a point when chasing instinct has to give way to self preservation.

His message was simple. When Pogačar is producing numbers that the others cannot realistically sustain, following him can do more damage than letting him go.

Onley effectively tested that theory on Thursday.

At the 2024 Giro d’Italia, Ben O’Connor tried to follow Pogačar on the climb to Oropa. Like Onley, the Australian felt good enough to make the attempt. Like Onley, he eventually discovered that the price of staying in Pogacar’s orbit could be considerably greater than the seconds gained by letting him ride away.

O’Connor’s description afterwards became one of the more memorable summaries of racing against the Slovenian.

“When you sail too close to the sun, you get stung,” he said. “I was brave. I always wanted to try and follow Pog [Pogačar], but I was probably the dumbest guy in the race.”

The Jayco AlUla rider has not been alone in describing the experience in those terms.

Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) had spoken about getting too close to the sun after trying to respond to Pogačar at Liège-Bastogne-Liège in 2024. A year later, Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ United) used almost identical imagery after Milan-Sanremo, having tried to stay with the Slovenian when the race detonated on the Cipressa.

Different races, different riders, same conclusion.

Against Pogačar, knowing when not to follow has become a skill of its own.