Philippe Gilbert casts doubt on Pogacar’s Paris-Roubaix chances: 'For me, he will never be the favourite'

Gilbert knows what it takes to win the biggest races of March and April. He has lived them, shaped them and, in some cases, conquered them. That experience informs his judgement, and it explains why he refuses to anoint Pogačar as the man to beat in Paris-Roubaix.

“Maybe,” Gilbert said to Het Nieuwsblad when asked if Pogačar could target Roubaix, “but I still think that even if he rides an incredible edition, Roubaix remains a very specific race. Last year he was very strong in Compiègne, but that does not change my opinion. We sometimes tend to overestimate him.”

Yet Roubaix, Gilbert argues, obeys its own logic. “We are talking about him everywhere, and then you start to think: this is in his head as well. That is why, for me, he will never be the favourite in Roubaix.” In a race defined by cobbles, chaos and calculated risk, he believes other riders are better suited.

He singles out Mathieu van der Poel as an example. “If Van der Poel enters a corner and it is ‘crash or win’, he will always be able to take more risk.” In the velodrome that instinct can be worth more than climbing legs or time trial power.

Gilbert also reflects on Pogacar’s broader impact on the sport. 

“It is double,” he said. “On the one hand it is fantastic that he rides everything. He is not like some riders in the past who focused only on Grand Tours. That gives cycling enormous value.” 

At the same time, the Slovenian’s relentless victories create new challenges. “It is not always good for the race,” Gilbert admitted, especially when solo moves come far from the finish and television cameras struggle to capture the wider battle.

The conversation inevitably turns to Remco Evenepoel and his career choices. “I think that he has finally found peace,” Gilbert said, referring to the move away from Soudal Quick Step. “The relationship between Soudal Quick Step and Evenepoel was over. At Red Bull he finds new, fresh air. That was needed.”

Gilbert also understands the choices that have been made with regard to his spring calendar. 

“Let us be honest,” he said. “Everyone knows that Remco crashes quickly. And it is simply a fact that the risks in the Tour of Flanders, and also in Milan Sanremo, are much greater than in Liège-Bastogne-Liège.”