Pogacar's absence creates a Worlds of wild possibilities in Montreal

There are many ways to measure Tadej Pogačar’s dominance in recent seasons, but the uncertainty shrouding the outcome of the Montreal World Championships might be as good a way as any.

The Worlds has always been a race apart in the cycling season, a day with a different tone to every other on the calendar, but on Pogačar’s watch in 2024 and especially in 2025, most of the suspense was squeezed out of the occasion. His triumphs were spectacular, of course, but his supremacy also flattened the narrative. In Kigali last year, the result was already certain more than an hour before the finish.

Before Pogačar’s season ended with his crash outside Xeraco on the Vuelta a España, the outcome in Montreal seemed another inevitability. Sure, all the usual challengers would dutifully make their way across the Atlantic, but in much the same way that the Washington Generals suit up to face the Harlem Globetrotters, they looked destined to have walk-on roles in another Pogačar exhibition.

In Pogačar’s absence, the mood music around the Worlds has shifted completely. After another career year, the Slovenian was strongly favoured to emulate Peter Sagan and claim a third successive rainbow jersey. Without him, the elite men’s road race has suddenly morphed into the least predictable major event of the season.

Pogačar didn’t quite manage to win all the Monuments this spring, but before a pedal was turned in any of them, it was clear that everybody’s strategy would be built around him. For the Montreal Worlds, that scaffolding has been removed, and that gives the race a freer form than we might otherwise have expected. Without Pogačar as a fixed point, all sorts of variables have been added to the Worlds.

The grandees of the peloton also know that Pogačar will be back for the Sallanches Worlds next year – or perhaps even in Ljubljana next week, who knows – and that adds to the urgency of the occasion. For some, it might be the last chance they get to touch the rainbow bands on Pogačar’s watch. 

Remco Evenepoel has done it before, of course, and in the grand manner replicated by Pogačar in subsequent years. In Wollongong in 2022, Evenepoel went big by attacking with 72km to go and he went home with the rainbow jersey on his shoulders.

A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then, but Evenepoel has remained the most compelling story in cycling, interspersing big wins and breakthroughs with a succession of setbacks. Second place at this year’s Tour de France allayed any lingering doubts about his ability to withstand the rigours of three-week racing, and he immediately set about preparing to topple Pogačar at the Montreal Worlds.

Pogačar’s absence now makes Evenepoel the logical favourite, but it also potentially makes his race more tactically complicated. One such wrinkle might be the presence of a resurgent Wout van Aert alongside him in the Belgian team, but managing competing ambitions has always been a delicate balancing act for the major nations. 

In theory, Evenepoel and Van Aert’s gifts complement one another smoothly. In practice, the rainbow jersey is a prize that often finds a way of generating friction. Van Aert, beloved as a loser in recent seasons, has given Evenepoel reason enough to worry that he just might win in Montréal. Serge Pauwels’ ability to get them on the same wavelength will be pivotal.

Evenepoel, in any case, has always been the most vulnerable of cycling’s so-called ‘aliens’ and despite his imposing form – underlined by a fourth straight world time trial title last week – he is certainly not immune to being outfought or outthought here.

Above all, the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal will have served as a warning. Isaac del Toro (Mexico) and Paul Seixas (France) contested victory there in a two-up sprint, and the youngsters give the distinct impression that they will carry a touch more punch than anyone else on the Voie Camillien-Houde. Evenepoel certainly won’t want to reach the final climb with either man for company.

Seixas only turned 20 on Thursday, but he hasn’t talked down his chances of becoming the youngest elite men’s champion in history, and with good reason. Del Toro, meanwhile, has an imposing one-day record, even if question marks persist over his ability to retain his sting when the distance ticks beyond 200km. Sunday might be the day he casts off those doubts.

But then all the contenders seem to be arriving at this Worlds with their form bubbling towards the boil. Tom Pidcock (Great Britain) won the mountain bike rainbow bands before toggling seamlessly back to the road, and the Montreal circuit is a clear match for his talents. 

Mathieu van der Poel suffered a sobering defeat at those mountain bike Worlds, but he responded by delivering an ominous message at the Tour de Luxembourg, producing a 175km solo victory seemingly for the sheer hell of it. The Dutchman’s claims that the Montreal Worlds course is “on the limit” of his capabilities should be taken with a grain of salt. 

He took bronze on the tough Zürich course two years ago and he dominated the slugging match in Glasgow in 2023. And Pogačar aside, no other rider produces the impossible as routinely as Van der Poel. France, Belgium and others will find common cause in trying to get rid of him.

The open nature of this World Championships extends beyond the top tier of favourites. The United States, who have so often failed to live up to Greg LeMond’s pedigree in this event, line up with their deepest team in years and both Brandon McNulty and Quinn Simmons have ample reason to believe. 

Belief shouldn’t be an issue for surprise Vuelta a España champion Enric Mas either, while Ben Healy (Ireland), a bronze medallist a year ago, seems destined to be an aggressor on Sunday. Getting up the road early might well prove a fruitful tactic in a race where Pogačar’s pre-eminence is not the fundamental premise. Plenty will making plans to go clear.

And that’s what makes this World Championships such a beguiling spectacle. Plenty of bandwidth has been devoted to online arguments over whether bearing witness to Pogačar’s superiority in recent seasons had sentenced cycling fans to years of boredom. 

From an entertainment standpoint, there is no guarantee that Sunday’s race will be better or worse for Pogačar’s absence – but it will certainly be something different. 

All kinds of scenarios are conceivable and all sorts of twists and turns are likely on the road towards the rainbow jersey. Unlike Kigali, the story is unwritten. Montreal is braced for a Worlds of wild possibilities.