Pogacar's absence makes E3 Saxo Classic a dress rehearsal without the main character

When Fabian Cancellara powered away from Tom Boonen in the final kilometre of E3 Harelbeke in 2010, it prefigured what was to come on the Muur van Geraardsbergen at the Tour of Flanders a week later. That episode marked a watershed moment in the race’s history, confirming its status as the definitive Ronde dress rehearsal.

E3 Harelbeke had taken various forms – and names – since its inception in 1958, but the shift towards a route that roughly mimicked the Tour of Flanders only really began in the late 1990s. While no rider has ever succeeded in winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and the Ronde in the same year, there is no such hoodoo around E3 Harelbeke, a race that has tended to establish very clear form lines immediately ahead of Belgian cycling’s day of days.

Since the race was elevated to WorldTour status in 2012, the E3-Ronde double has been completed five times, and on all bar two occasions in that period, the Tour of Flanders winner has raced at Harelbeke the previous week.

It is striking, however, that the exceptions have come in recent seasons. In 2022, Mathieu van der Poel eschewed Harelbeke in favour of riding the Settimana Coppi e Bartali after an injury-delayed start to his season, while twelve months ago, Tadej Pogačar opted out of E3 before cruising to his second Tour of Flanders win.

With Pogačar an absentee again this year and with Wout van Aert preferring to complete a block of training rather than compete on Friday, E3 Harelbeke takes on a slightly different guise. As ever, the race will offer pointers for the Ronde, but without both the big favourite and the home favourite, it’s not quite the traditional taster of what might follow at the main event.

Still, it promises to be an intriguing affair, not least because of the presence of Van der Poel and Mads Pedersen, both of whom will be looking for reassurance after recent injuries. And while Pogačar is not pinning on a number after his dramatic Milan-Sanremo victory, he will still serve as the in-absentia yardstick for his Ronde rivals.

All eyes will be on Van der Poel in Harelbeke, and not only because of his victories in 2024 and 2025. The Dutchman started the season with an imposing solo effort at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and he warmed up for Milan-Sanremo with two stage wins and some devastating cameos at Tirreno-Adriatico.

Those displays made him the logical favourite for La Primavera, Pogačar notwithstanding, but after hanging on to the world champion’s onslaught over the Cipressa, Van der Poel submitted surprisingly soon on the Poggio.

It later emerged that Van der Poel had sustained a finger injury when he went down in the same crash as Pogačar shortly before the Cipressa, and that discomfort offered some mitigation for his travails on the Poggio.

It also means it was difficult to draw too many firm conclusions regarding Van der Poel’s strength relative to Pogačar ahead of their meetings at the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. Without the crash, would Van der Poel have been able to resist Pogačar all the way up the Poggio like he did in 2025? And will the lingering impact of that hand injury affect Van der Poel’s ability to absorb hardship on the cobbles in the coming weeks?

Van der Poel reconnoitred the E3 Harelbeke course with his Alpecin-Premier Tech team on Tuesday, which seemed to allay the most pressing concerns about his hand injury. As ever, the proof will be in the racing, and Friday will reveal much more about Van der Poel’s recovery.

Above all, E3 provides Van der Poel with a chance to reassert himself quickly after a disappointing afternoon on the Riviera. In an era when Pogačar rarely if ever misses, every relative misstep from one of the other grandees of the peloton tends to be accentuated. But Van der Poel’s struggles on the Poggio don’t negate what he did at Omloop or at Tirreno. 

All indications prior to Sanremo suggested that this might have been the best iteration of Van der Poel yet in terms of power numbers. We can expect him to strive to show that again here, not least because the addition of an extra loop over the Karnemelkbeekstraat makes the E3 parcours tougher than ever. Like the Ronde, this is a race where the strongest rider should prevail. In the absence of Pogačar, that ought to be Van der Poel – and he will be eager to show it.

Twelve months ago, Van der Poel put on a crushing solo exhibition at E3, delivering a striking flex ahead of his Flanders duel with Pogačar by dropping Pedersen and Filippo Ganna on the Oude Kwaremont with 38km to go and winning by over a minute. 

In truth, Van der Poel did more than he needed to win the race, piling on the pressure even after the victory was all but ensured. It was hard to tell if that was because he wanted to send a message to Pogačar or because he felt he needed the effort ahead of the Ronde. In any case, it will be fascinating to see how he approaches Harelbeke this time out.

Pedersen’s presence is the other intriguing element to this race, as he was very much the third man in the Pogačar-Van der Poel duel last year, with his solo triumph at Gent-Wevelgem one of the Spring’s outstanding displays.

At his best, Pedersen has no complex when it comes to racing against Van der Poel, as demonstrated by the way he triggered the winning move on the Taaienberg twelve months ago. The key question, of course, is how close Pedersen is to his best after breaking his wrist and collarbone in February.

Pedersen was a surprise starter at Milan-Sanremo, his first race since the crash, and he exceeded expectations by claiming the sprint for fourth after his Lidl-Trek team did the bulk of the wear to try to claw back the winning move.

That performance – and the manner it was achieved – bodes well for Pedersen’s condition, but he knows better than anyone that the cobbles and hills of the Flemish Ardennes pose a very different kind of test.

Pedersen will test himself against Van der Poel here, but both men will be wondering if even their best will suffice to compete with Pogačar a week on Sunday. With the main character absent, this year’s E3 will be a rather incomplete rehearsal for the Ronde – but that doesn’t make it any less compelling or crucial.