Rasmussen warns of nightmare scenario for Vingegaard on stage 15

The Former polka dot jersey winner believes the race situation could force Vingegaard to chase attacks from several general classification rivals, while Pogačar can afford to remain patient behind them.

The main danger could emerge with around 50 kilometres remaining, when the peloton tackles the Col de la Croisette. The climb is only 4.6 kilometres long, but its average gradient of 11 percent is severe enough to reduce the group of favourites to a handful of riders.

Should Visma | Lease a Bike lose its support riders on the climb, Vingegaard could find himself isolated at a particularly awkward moment in the stage.

After the nearby Côte du Mont, the route continues across roughly 26 kilometres of descending and relatively fast roads before the final climb to Plateau de Solaison. That section could offer teams such as UAE Team Emirates-XRG, Lidl-Trek and Red-Bull-Bora Hansgrohe an opportunity to put Vingegaard under pressure before the final ascent has even begun.

“In the worst possible situation, Vingegaard is left alone against two UAE riders, two Lidl-Trek riders and two Red Bull riders,” Rasmussen said to Viaplay. “That could become a very, very unpleasant scenario for him.”

The problem for Vingegaard is not simply the number of riders around him, but also the current standings in the overall classification.

Pogačar holds a sufficiently large advantage over several of the riders behind the leading duo to let them attack without immediately taking responsibility for the chase. Vingegaard has far less freedom, with Remco Evenepoel, Paul Seixas, Juan Ayuso, Florian Lipowitz and Isaac del Toro all within 90 seconds of him.

An attack from any of those riders could force the Dane to close the gap himself. Repeated accelerations on flatter roads can be especially costly, particularly with an 11.3 kilometre final climb averaging 9 percent still to come. Vingegaard will remember that lesson from the Col du Granon stage in 2022, when Visma repeatedly put Pogačar under pressure before the Dane launched the decisive attack.

Visma could try to prevent that situation by sending riders into the breakaway. Those teammates could then wait for Vingegaard later in the stage and provide support after the Col de la Croisette.

The Dutch team attempted the same tactic on stage 14, but Bruno Armirail, Matteo Jorgenson and Victor Campenaerts appeared to lack the legs to make it work. That could leave Davide Piganzoli and Sepp Kuss as the only riders capable of fulfilling that role on Sunday.

Saturday’s stage also offered Visma some reason for optimism. Sepp Kuss was the last rider without general classification ambitions to remain with the group of favourites, even lifting the pace himself. That suggests the American may be capable of staying with the leading contenders over the Col de la Croisette.

Rasmussen’s warning carries added weight because his earlier prediction of how the Tourmalet stage would unfold proved remarkably accurate.

Before the Pyrenean stage, he argued that Pogačar and UAE could use the Tourmalet to launch the decisive move rather than waiting for the final climb. Rasmussen expected the race to develop into a direct man against man battle, with Pogačar gaining time near the summit before extending his advantage on the descent and the final ascent.

That is almost exactly how the stage unfolded. Isaac del Toro set up Pogačar’s attack, allowing the Slovenian to open a gap. Vingegaard initially managed to limit his losses, but the deficit had grown to around 30 seconds by the summit.

The greatest damage came afterwards. Pogačar extended his advantage on the descent and gained another two minutes on the final climb, while Vingegaard was left to chase alone, just as Rasmussen had suggested.